Latest News

NJ: The surprising group that could decide New Jersey’s next governor

NJ: The surprising group that could decide New Jersey’s next governor

by Gotham Polling

New Jersey’s largest public interest group representing people 50 and older has a message for the crowded field of candidates running for governor and the state Assembly this year.

The AARP on Wednesday released an analysis of voter participation by county and legislative district since 2020 based on age: 50 and older versus under 50. With the exception of a few counties in last year’s presidential election, the AARP crowd has dominated turnout. In Morris and Hunterdon counties, 70% of voters were 50 and older.

“AARP New Jersey is proud to highlight the critical role that older voters continue to play in our democracy. Their consistent and substantial turnout in elections, especially at the local and state levels, demonstrates their commitment to shaping the future of our communities,” said AARP New Jersey State Director Chris Widelo.

“We hope this report encourages policymakers and candidates to address the issues that matter most to older voters, including property tax relief, retirement security, long-term care reform, and support for family caregivers,” Widelo said.

Even with a surge of voter registrations among people who choose not to be labeled Democrats or Republicans, election results show independents often skip voting, according to the report, “The Power of the Older Voter” produced by Gotham Polling and Analytics on AARP’s behalf.

“In several counties, such as Atlantic, Monmouth, and Gloucester, independents now rival or surpass Democrats and Republicans in new registrations. However, turnout among independents remains inconsistent, especially in off-year elections,” the report said.

Who is most likely to vote in the 2025 governor’s race?

New Jerseyans 50 and older outvoted their younger peers in the 2021 governor’s race, according to data released by the AARP showing the wide gaps by percent of turnout. Candidates running this year should tailor their campaigns to the older voters’ concerns: property taxes, caregiving, health care and housing, AARP leaders say.

The turnout from 2021, the year incumbent Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy beat Republican Jack Ciattarelli by a surprisingly slim 3-point margin, is likely the most informative example. Although gubernatorial elections are a big deal, it’s are considered an off-year election because the president is not at the top of the ticket.

With only 40% of registered voters casting ballots in 2021, the 50-and-older bloc showed up big-time. The older voters represented 65% of everyone who cast ballots in Bergen, Camden, Somerset and Sussex counties, according to the report. The under 50-bloc made the biggest impact in Hudson, which has the youngest population of any county. They represented 44% of the turnout, the report said.

The Democratic candidates for governor running in the June 10 primary are Newark Mayor Ras Baraka, Jersey City Mayor Steve Fulop, U.S. Rep. Josh Gottheimer, U.S. Rep. Mikie Sherrill, New Jersey Education Association President Sean Spiller and former Senate President Stephen Sweeney.

On the Republican side, the candidates are Ciattarelli; Justin Barbera, a Burlington County contractor who ran unsuccessfully for Congress last year as an independent, state Sen. Jon Bramnick, former Englewood Cliffs Mayor Mario Kranjac, and former radio host Bill Spadea.

The entire 80-member New Jersey Assembly will also be on the ballot.

Widelo said the findings should help dictate the issues the campaigns talk about. AARP has been a vocal champion for a tax credit for caregivers, who spend roughly $7,000 a year of their own money taking care of parents and other relatives.

“We want to make sure the next governor and those elected to the Assembly have a vision in mind to address the needs for an aging population,” he said.

The data also shows women, who are most often serving as caregivers, play a “pivotal role in the electoral process,” Widelo said. “Older women voters are the most likely to head to the polls.”

Ben Dworkin, director of Rowan University’s Institute for Public Policy & Citizenship, said anybody who has studied elections understands the older voters are more reliable participants.

People 50 and above “are more stable, while younger voters are much more transient — moving around, buying new houses and establishing roots. Sometimes it takes a little longer to feel part of a community,” Dworkin said.

Older voters “are eager and willing to be part of community by exercising their right to vote. They have opinions on local issues,” he added. “As you get even older and hit retirement age, they have time to follow issues.”

This doesn’t mean younger voters ought to be overlooked, Dworkin said. “Ignoring segments of the voting population because the actual likelihood of them voting is less becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy,” he said. Still, he added, “Every campaign has limited resources and they make strategic choices. We shouldn’t be surprised when strategic choice reinforces what everyone expects.”

Masab

Share
Published by
Masab

Recent Posts

How Does Sentiment Analysis Impact Political Strategy?

Sampling is the backbone of polling, determining how well a subset of people (the sample)…

3 weeks ago

What Is the Difference Between Qualitative and Quantitative Polling?

Sampling is the backbone of polling, determining how well a subset of people (the sample)…

3 weeks ago

Why Do Some Polls Get Election Predictions Wrong?

Sampling is the backbone of polling, determining how well a subset of people (the sample)…

3 weeks ago

How Can Big Data Improve Polling Accuracy?

Sampling is the backbone of polling, determining how well a subset of people (the sample)…

3 weeks ago

What Are the Different Types of Polling Methods?

Sampling is the backbone of polling, determining how well a subset of people (the sample)…

3 weeks ago

Echoes Sentinel: Majority of NJ voters in non-presidential election years are 50 and older, report shows

Sampling is the backbone of polling, determining how well a subset of people (the sample)…

4 weeks ago