A new poll in the race for New York City mayor shows Queens Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani with a commanding lead in just about every scenario in this year’s unprecedented race. 

The AARP New York-Gotham Polling & Analytics poll surveyed 1,376 likely voters, and found Mamdani well ahead of his nearest challengers with 41.8% support. 

The same poll had: 

• Former Gov. Andrew Cuomo, who’s running as an independent, with 23.4% support
• Republican nominee and Guardian Angels founder Curtis Sliwa with 16.5% support
• Incumbent Mayor Eric Adams, who is seeking re-election as an independent, with 8.8% support
• 7.9% were undecided
• 1.6% supported other candidates

The poll also asked likely voters what would happen if some of the contenders were to drop out. In every scenario, Mamdani maintained his comfortable lead in the race. 

• If Cuomo drops out, Mamdani rises to 48.4% support, ahead of Sliwa by 27.6 points (48.4%-20.8%)
• If Adams drops out, Mamdani leads Cuomo by 14 points, 42.6%-28.3%
• If Sliwa drops out, Mamdani leads Cuomo by 16.8 points, 45.1%-28.3%

Mamdani is also ahead of all challengers in theoretical head-to-head matches, with Cuomo emerging as the closest contender but still behind – with an important caveat. 

• If everyone but Sliwa drops out, Mamdani leads by 22.9 points, 44.3%-21.4%
• If everyone but Adams drops out, Mamdani leads by 24.4 points, 44.4%-20.0
• If everyone but Cuomo drops out, Mamdani leads by 11 points, 42%-31%

In a theoretical head-to-head matchup with Mamdani and Cuomo, however, 27% of likely voters remain undecided – meaning they make up a key group that could decide the race in that scenario. 

In terms of favorability and unfavorability, 

• Adams had 8.3% rate him as very favorable and 49.9% as very unfavorable
• Mamdani has 36% very favorable and 42% very unfavorable
• Sliwa has 19.5%-36.7%
• Cuomo has 19%-39%

The top issues among likely voters are cost of living, public safety and housing affordability, the poll found. A majority of likely voters – 52.7% – said the city was currently headed in the wrong direction.

The general election is set for Nov. 4. Cuomo has previously called on candidates who are behind in the polls to exit the race ahead of Election Day in order to set up a one-to-one challenge to Mamdani. He told CBS News New York’s Marcia Kramer he’d do it himself, saying “I don’t want to be part of a suicide mission.”