Categories: Results

2026 New York Voter Participation Report

The Electorate Behind the Polls.

Polls tell us what voters say. Voting histories reveal who has participated—and why older New Yorkers cannot be an afterthought in any close race.

2022 Participants age 50+

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More older than younger participants in the last Governor election

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older-voter advantage under a conditional 2026 historical baseline

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Five Facts To Take Into November

Polls tell us what voters say. Voting histories reveal who has participated—and why older New Yorkers cannot be an afterthought in any close race.

1 Half the rolls. Nearly five in eight voters.

In 2022, voters 50+ were 50.5% of registered adults but 62.5% of identified general-election participants. A nearly even age split on the rolls produced an older-voter majority of almost 1.5 million at the polls.

2 History points to another substantial older majority.

A simple average of the 2018 and 2022 gubernatorial elections suggests roughly 3.7 million older participants versus 2.4 million under 50—about 61% older. This is an illustrative historical baseline, not a turnout forecast.

3 A two-party story cannot explain a growing unaffiliated electorate.

No-party registration grew by 845,019 from 2018 to 2026. From 2020 to 2024, unaffiliated general-election participation rose 106,545 while the Democratic-recorded count fell 96,683. These are group changes, not proof of party switching.

4 New York City accounted for almost the entire younger primary rebound.

NYC contributed 144,603 of the statewide net gain of 151,922 under-50 primary participants from 2024 to 2026—95.2%. The net gain outside the city was only 7,319. That primary pattern does not forecast November

5 The same city also drove nearly all older general-election growth.

NYC supplied 115,800—94.6%—of the statewide net gain in 50+ general-election participants from 2020 to 2024. Its 50+ share rose from 45.7% to 49.6%. The younger-primary and older-general-election stories can both be true.

Executive summary

New York’s registration rolls were almost evenly divided by age in 2022: 50.5% were voters age 50+. But 62.5% of that year’s general-election participants were 50 or older—nearly five in eight. Older voters also accounted for 55.3% of participants in the 2024 presidential election. With the 2026 register still almost even at 50.2% age 50+, the rolls alone understate older voters’ historical presence at the polls.

Older voters gained share in both general-election comparisons. From 2018 to 2022, participation among voters age 50+ increased by 67,717, while under-50 participation fell by 290,638. From 2020 to 2024, the older count rose by 122,358 and the younger count fell by 162,739. These were not simply differences between high-turnout presidential elections and smaller midterms: the older share increased within each election type.

New York City accounted for 235,447 of the under-50 decline between the 2018 and 2022 general elections—81.0% of the statewide decrease. It nevertheless remained the only region with an under-50 majority in the 2024 general election, at 50.4%. North Country and Mohawk Valley were much older, at 62.2% and 62.0% age 50+, respectively. The city was still younger than the rest of the state, even as its own general-election electorate became older.

The decline between the 2018 and 2022 general elections was concentrated among voters recorded as Democrats, particularly those under 50. Women in that group fell from 865,869 to 660,739, down 205,130 (23.7%); men fell from 545,069 to 450,406, down 94,663 (17.4%). Older Republican and unaffiliated groups grew over the same period. These changes altered the party and age balance of participants; they do not establish that the same people left one party for another.The younger rebound in the 2026 primary was overwhelmingly a New York City story. The city supplied 95.2% of the statewide increase in under-50 participants from 2024, while the statewide 50+ share fell from 74.4% to 65.9%. Long Island’s primary remained 81.7% age 50+. A younger statewide primary average therefore concealed sharply different regional electorates.

Unaffiliated voters are also a growing presence. From 2020 to 2024, general-election participation increased among unaffiliated voters while declining among voters recorded as Democrats. That change in party composition is separate from the city-centered younger primary rebound: unaffiliated growth spans older as well as younger voters.

Electoral weight depends on numbers as well as percentages. A small county can have a strongly older electorate, while a larger, younger county supplies far more voters age 50+. The regional and county summaries identify both kinds of influence.

Registration context

Registration composition, 2018–2026 Under 50.

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Registration composition, 2018–2026 (50+ vs Under 50).

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The electorate became older in both comparable cycles

Older participation increased modestly while younger participation fell. The older share rose in both the midterm and presidential comparisons.

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General election	Age 50+	Under 50
2018	3,645,856	2,522,436
2020	4,487,903	3,888,813
2022	3,713,573	2,231,798
2024	4,610,261	3,726,074

The younger decline matters to the older majority

Between 2018 and 2022, the older count increased 1.9%, while the under-50 count fell 11.5%. The stronger older share reflects both movements, rather than older growth alone. Presidential elections drew more participants of both ages and a larger younger share. Comparing 2018 with 2022 and 2020 with 2024 keeps that normal election-cycle difference separate from the change within each cycle.

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Balanced rolls can produce an older electorate

The last gubernatorial electorate had 1,481,775 more participants age 50+ than under 50.

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The current register is still nearly evenly divided

On October 1, 2026, registration included 6,747,496 voters age 50+ and 6,695,790 under 50. Older voters represented 50.2% of known-age adult registrants, compared with 50.3% in 2018.

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Older influence crosses recorded party groups

In the 2022 general election, older Democratic women numbered 1,031,508. Older Republican women and men numbered 589,743 and 615,100, respectively; older unaffiliated women and men numbered 295,059 and 309,704. The older electorate is not a single partisan bloc.

What this means for the 2026 race

Governor Kathy Hochul faces Bruce Blakeman after a Governor election with a substantial older majority. One central question is whether the city-centered younger participation seen in the 2026 primary will carry into the much larger general election.

New York City supplied 30.4% of statewide general-election participation in 2022 but 54.1% of the 2026 primary population. Those are different electorates. Neither the primary nor recorded party enrollment predicts a winner.

Unaffiliated growth accompanied younger Democratic declines

Changes in the groups that participated altered the electorate. They do not establish individual party switching.

Recorded party	2020 general	2024 general	Change
Democratic	4,091,571	3,994,888	-96,683
Republican	2,152,907	2,190,249	37,342
Blank / Unaffiliated	1,663,331	1,769,876	106,545

Younger Democratic losses were substantial

From 2018 to 2022, participation among Democratic-recorded women and men under 50 fell by a combined 299,793. From 2020 to 2024, younger Democratic women declined by 90,245 and younger Democratic men by 75,784, while older Democratic women increased by 36,604.

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The sex balance differs within matching groups

Recorded party	2020 general	2024 general	Change
Democratic	4,091,571	3,994,888	-96,683
Republican	2,152,907	2,190,249	37,342
Blank / Unaffiliated	1,663,331	1,769,876	106,545

Women made up 60.9% of the older Democratic group with recorded Female or Male sex. Older Republicans were nearly evenly divided; younger Republicans were predominantly male. On the registration rolls, unaffiliated voters grew from 2,609,462 in 2018 to 3,454,481 in 2026. Their general-election participation also grew between 2020 and 2024, but registration and participation remain distinct measures.

The younger primary rebound was centered in the city

New York City supplied 95.2% of the statewide increase in under-50 primary participants from 2024 to 2026.

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The statewide younger increase was 151,922. Even after that rebound, both age groups in the 2026 statewide primary remained smaller than in 2022. Supported primary contests and eligibility differ across years.

The city also supplied most of the older general election gain

From 2020 to 2024, New York City added 115,800 participants age 50+, accounting for 94.6% of the statewide older increase. Its younger primary rebound and its older general-election shift are separate findings.

Age 50+ share of general-election participants	2020	2024	Change
New York City	45.7%	49.6%	+3.9 points
Outside New York City	57.5%	58.2%	+0.7 points

The city’s older share increased faster, even as it remained younger than the rest of the state. In 2024, it contributed 1,387,103 older participants, the largest older population of any region.

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Primary composition and countertrends

Annual distinct participants; contests and eligible populations differ

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New York State

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New York City

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Long Island

Population	Year	50+ Count	50+ Share	Under 50 Count	Under 50 Share
New York State	2022	1.23M	73.2%	450.10K	26.8%
New York State	2024	641.06K	74.4%	220.41K	25.6%
New York State	2026	718.22K	65.9%	372.33K	34.1%
New York City	2022	420.94K	65.0%	226.41K	35.0%
New York City	2024	242.70K	67.7%	115.58K	32.3%
New York City	2026	330.14K	55.9%	260.18K	44.1%
Long Island	2022	190.16K	78.5%	52.02K	21.5%
Long Island	2024	79.40K	81.5%	18.05K	18.5%
Long Island	2026	75.40K	81.7%	16.85K	18.3%

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Who participates?

Election participation by age, recorded party and sex

General elections by age

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Primaries by age

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Regional registration change

2018-2026 registration: scale and age composition

Region	Code	2018 Registration	2026 Registration	Numerical Growth	Growth %	2018 50+ Share	2026 50+ Share	Share Change (pp)
Western NY	R01	854.45K	980.39K	+125.94K	+14.7%	53.7%	52.2%	-1.50
Finger Lakes	R02	783.22K	852.99K	+69.78K	+8.9%	53.9%	52.8%	-1.08
Southern Tier	R03	407.34K	433.79K	+26.45K	+6.5%	54.1%	52.5%	-1.55
Central NY	R04	505.32K	542.30K	+36.98K	+7.3%	52.7%	51.7%	-1.04
North Country	R05	254.95K	266.76K	+11.81K	+4.6%	54.6%	54.3%	-0.32
Mohawk Valley	R06	296.50K	315.19K	+18.70K	+6.3%	56.1%	55.1%	-1.07
Capital District	R07	730.17K	813.81K	+83.64K	+11.5%	53.8%	52.8%	-1.05
Hudson Valley	R08	1.41M	1.68M	+262.60K	+18.6%	52.5%	51.1%	-1.36
New York City	R09	5.05M	5.36M	+312.30K	+6.2%	45.7%	46.6%	+0.93
Long Island	R10	1.91M	2.21M	+295.16K	+15.4%	53.3%	53.3%	-0.01

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New York City and the rest of the state

The city and the rest of New York had different age profiles in every general election: 2018: city 50.4%, rest of state 63.5%; 2022: city 56.2%, rest of state 65.2%; 2020: city 45.7%, rest of state 57.5%; 2024: city 49.6%, rest of state 58.2%. The presidential electorate in the city remained younger than the rest of the state even as its older share rose more sharply. From 2018 to 2022, New York City’s participant count declined by 262,897. The rest-of-state count increased by 39,976. In the presidential comparison, the city’s age-50+ count grew by 115,800, or 94.6% of the statewide older gain. The city’s younger primary rebound should not obscure its older shift in general elections: it supplied nearly all of the statewide increase in older participants from 2020 to 2024. In the 2024 general election, New York City supplied 1,387,103 older participants, Long Island 847,788, and Hudson Valley 639,725. Together they accounted for 62.4% of the statewide age-50+ count. Other regions had higher older-voter percentages, but these three supplied most of the state’s older participants. They also added 312,901, 296,352, and 263,344 registrants included in the age comparison, respectively, over 2018–2026. The largest older populations were not necessarily the places with the highest older shares.

The regional picture at a glance

Western NY — Erie supplied 66.6% of the region’s voters age 50+ in the 2024 general election, about 265,300 people. Older voters were more concentrated in several smaller counties, but most of Western New York’s older electoral weight came from Erie.
Finger Lakes — Under-50 registration grew 11.6% from 2018 to 2026, while younger participation declined in both the 2018–2022 and 2020–2024 general-election comparisons. The region’s rolls expanded, but its participating electorate became more heavily older over those earlier election periods.
Southern Tier — Voters age 50+ remained 59.7% of the 2024 general electorate, even as younger participation edged up by 267 from 2020 and the older count fell. The stable older majority is the larger story here, alongside a modest younger countertrend to the statewide decline.
Central NY — Onondaga accounted for 95.2% of the region’s decline in general-election participation between 2018 and 2022. The region’s contraction was concentrated in its largest county, giving the statewide decline a specific local center.
North Country — Between the 2018 and 2022 general elections, older participation rose 6.3% and younger participation rose 1.2%. Older voters gained weight in an expanding electorate, making this a clear countertrend to the statewide loss of younger participants.
Mohawk Valley — Voters age 50+ made up 62.0% of the region’s 2024 general electorate, and Oneida supplied 45.3% of those older participants. The older majority extends across the region, while its numerical weight is concentrated heavily in one county.
Capital District — Saratoga supplied 65.7% of the region’s increase in general-election participation from 2018 to 2022. The region expanded while the state contracted, but most of that growth came from a single county.

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Older voters gained share in both election cycles

The general-election sequence is 2018: 3,645,856 age 50+ and 2,522,436 under 50 (59.1% age 50+); 2020: 4,487,903 age 50+ and 3,888,813 under 50 (53.6% age 50+); 2022: 3,713,573 age 50+ and 2,231,798 under 50 (62.5% age 50+); 2024: 4,610,261 age 50+ and 3,726,074 under 50 (55.3% age 50+). Presidential elections drew more participants of both ages and a larger younger share. Comparing 2018 with 2022 and 2020 with 2024 separates that election-cycle difference from longer-term changes.

The comparable midterms show 3,645,856 participants age 50+ in 2018 and 3,713,573 in 2022, a 1.9% increase. Under-50 participation moved from 2,522,436 to 2,231,798, down 11.5%. The older share rose from 59.1% to 62.5%. Across presidential elections, the corresponding counts were 4,487,903 to 4,610,261 for age 50+ and 3,888,813 to 3,726,074 for under 50. The older share moved from 53.6% to 55.3%, a 1.7 percentage-point increase. Older participation increased modestly in both comparisons. The rise in older share was also a consequence of lower younger counts; it cannot be attributed solely to growth in the older group.

The registration-to-participation differences were 2018: 50.3% age 50+ in registration versus 59.1% in the general election, an 8.85-point gap; 2020: 50.0% age 50+ in registration versus 53.6% in the general election, a 3.62-point gap; 2022: 50.5% age 50+ in registration versus 62.5% in the general election, an 11.97-point gap; 2024: 50.5% age 50+ in registration versus 55.3% in the general election, a 4.78-point gap. The gap widened within both comparable cycles. The age balance of the rolls increasingly understated the older share of people participating, most clearly in gubernatorial years.

The groups behind the change

Between the 2018 and 2022 general elections, Democratic women under 50 moved from 865,869 to 660,739, a decline of 205,130 (23.7%), while the matching group of men moved from 545,069 to 450,406, a decline of 94,663 (17.4%). Together, these two groups declined by 299,793. Their combined decline exceeded the net under-50 decrease across all recorded parties, because increases elsewhere partly offset it. The loss was concentrated among younger Democrats, rather than shared evenly across younger voters.

Between 2018 and 2022, older Republican participation increased: men age 50+ moved from 569,923 to 615,100, a gain of 45,177 (7.9%), and women from 550,381 to 589,743, a gain of 39,362 (7.2%). Older unaffiliated men moved from 275,377 to 309,704, a gain of 34,327 (12.5%), and women from 263,993 to 295,059, a gain of 31,066 (11.8%). Older gains were not shared by every party group. Older Democratic women, for example, declined from 1,086,485 to 1,031,508.

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Registration growth supplies context

Between October 1, 2018 and October 1, 2026, registration at age 50+ rose from 6,128,543 to 6,747,496, adding 618,953 (10.1%). Under-50 registration increased from 6,066,998 to 6,695,790, adding 628,792 (10.4%). The older share moved from 50.3% to 50.2%. Both age groups gained roughly similar numbers over these eight years. That stable registration balance contrasts with the older shift in the general-election comparisons through 2024. Growth on the rolls and weight at the polls tell different stories.

From October 1, 2018 to October 1, 2026, Blank / Unaffiliated registration grew from 2,609,462 to 3,454,481, a gain of 845,019. The two largest increases among the displayed demographic groups were younger unaffiliated men on the register, 751,776 to 1,028,284, a gain of 276,508 (36.8%), and younger unaffiliated women on the register, 795,746 to 1,004,687, a gain of 208,941 (26.3%). Older unaffiliated women on the register also increased from 538,700 to 697,466, a gain of 158,766 (29.5%), and men on the register from 516,768 to 663,756, a gain of 146,988 (28.4%). Unaffiliated growth was strongest in the younger groups, but it was substantial among older women and men as well.

The 2026 Republican registration base was 60.5% age 50+, compared with 50.8% among Democrats and 39.8% among Blank / Unaffiliated registrants. The Republican and unaffiliated age profiles differ by 20.77 percentage points. Republicans were the oldest of these three registration groups; unaffiliated voters were the youngest.

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How the five congressional districts differ

Among the five selected fixed district cohorts, NY-21 had the highest older registration share in 2026, 55.6%, while NY-17 was closest to an even age split, at 51.0%. In their 2024 general-election histories, NY-21 was oldest at 61.8% and NY-4 youngest at 54.7%. Older participation increased between presidential elections in all five cohorts. Younger participation increased in NY-17, NY-19 and NY-21, and decreased in NY-3 and NY-4. Older growth accompanied younger expansion in three of these district populations and younger contraction in two.

Older majorities with different compositions

All five selected cohorts had older majorities in 2024. Histories follow October 1, 2026 registrants, including earlier votes wherever recorded; they are not complete past district electorates.

Congressional district NY-3

2024 general election: 58.0% age 50+. The cohort included 52,634 unaffiliated participants age 50+ in 2024. Its 2026 unaffiliated registration exceeded Republican registration. This substantial population belongs in the Suozzi LiPetri race picture; unaffiliated does not mean undecided.

Congressional district NY-4

2024 general election: 54.7% age 50+. Even the youngest of these five 2024 cohorts had an older majority. From 2020 to 2024, older Democratic women increased by 5,100 and older Republican men by 3,892, showing expansion across affiliations.

Congressional district NY-17

2024 general election: 55.4% age 50+. Both ages expanded from 2020 to 2024, but the older gain was 22,830 versus 2,040 under 50. About 92% of the net increase came from older participants; describing the district simply as a younger retreat would miss that distinction.

Congressional district NY-19

2024 general election: 59.8% age 50+. From 2020 to 2024, the older count grew by 22,446 and the younger count by 5,825. Older Democratic women and older Republican men posted similar gains. The stronger older majority cannot be assigned to one candidate.

Congressional district NY-21

2024 general election: 61.8% age 50+. This was the oldest of the five selected cohorts in 2024, with the oldest 2026 registration profile as well. Both age groups grew in both comparable election pairs. The new candidates cannot be assumed to inherit a predecessor’s votes.

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Syed Nofel

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