Categories: Results

Poll: Gotham AARP NYC Mayor October

Poll: Gotham AARP NYC Mayor General Election 2025 — October

NYC Mayoral Election 2025 – October Poll Results

NEW YORK, NY — A new Gotham Polling & Analytics / AARP New York survey of 1,040 likely voters for the November 2025 New York City mayoral election finds Assembly Member Zohran Mamdani maintaining a clear lead in the general election field. The poll, conducted in early October using a representative sample of likely general election voters, builds on Gotham Polling’s August study with AARP New York and measures voter sentiment following Mayor Eric Adams’s withdrawal from the race.

Key Findings

Current Vote Intention: Mamdani leads with 43.2%, followed by Andrew Cuomo at 28.9%, Curtis Sliwa at 19.4%, and 8.4% undecided or preferring another candidate.
Support once held by Mayor Adams—who previously polled near 9–10%—has largely shifted to Cuomo, with smaller portions moving to Sliwa and modest gains for Mamdani.
Voter engagement remains extremely high, with more than nine in ten respondents saying they definitely plan to vote.

Head-to-Head Scenarios

The poll modeled two hypothetical runoff-style matchups using respondents’ first-choice, backup-choice, and second-choice preferences:

If Cuomo drops out: Mamdani’s support rises to 46.8%, Sliwa increases to 31.5%, and 21.8% remain undecided or back another candidate. This represents a 10-point gain for Sliwa since the August poll’s comparable scenario.
If Sliwa drops out: Mamdani holds at 44.6%, while Cuomo climbs to 40.7%, with 14.7% undecided or preferring another candidate. Nearly 78% of undecided voters are age 50+, a group where Cuomo performs strongest, and 42% identify as Republicans—suggesting many could coalesce around Cuomo to block Mamdani. Cuomo’s 40.7% marks a nine-point increase from his August head-to-head result.

Scenario 1: Cuomo drops out

Answer		Weighted Base N	Gender %		Age %				Party %				Race %
Candidate / Bucket	Weighted N	Weighted %	Female	Male	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	Democratic	Republican	Non-Partisan	Other	White (non-Hispanic)	Black or African American	Hispanic or Latino	East or South Asian	Jewish	Other
Zohran Mamdani	487	46.8%	55%	45%	23%	27%	24%	26%	88%	2%	8%	2%	37%	28%	16%	8%	7%	4%
Curtis Sliwa	327	31.5%	50%	50%	8%	20%	33%	39%	40%	39%	16%	5%	51%	8%	18%	5%	9%	9%
Undecided+Another	226	21.8%	64%	36%	4%	12%	32%	52%	74%	12%	10%	4%	33%	30%	24%	3%	5%	5%

Scenario 2: Adams drops out

Answer		Weighted Base N	Gender %		Age %				Party %				Race %
Candidate / Bucket	Weighted N	Weighted %	Female	Male	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	Democratic	Republican	Non-Partisan	Other	White (non-Hispanic)	Black or African American	Hispanic or Latino	East or South Asian	Jewish	Other
Zohran Mamdani	464	44.6%	55%	45%	24%	27%	22%	26%	88%	1%	8%	3%	39%	27%	16%	8%	7%	3%
Andrew Cuomo	423	40.7%	54%	46%	6%	18%	37%	39%	59%	22%	15%	4%	41%	19%	22%	4%	9%	5%
Undecided+Another	153	14.7%	60%	40%	6%	16%	25%	53%	46%	42%	9%	4%	45%	18%	14%	4%	4%	15%

Favorability and Issue Landscape

All three candidates face net-negative favorability ratings, with none exceeding 50% overall favorability. Mamdani shows the widest polarization—36% very favorable versus 39% very unfavorable—reflecting an intense but divided electorate.

Voters continue to identify the cost of living as the top concern (up two points since August). Nearly half cite public safety and 39% name housing affordability as major issues. While the overall issue hierarchy remains steady, concern about cost of living has grown slightly while public safety has edged down.

Perceptions of the city’s direction remain negative, with a three-point rise in those saying New York is “on the wrong track.” Yet optimism has improved modestly: five percent more voters now say they are “very optimistic” that conditions can improve under the right leadership.

Voting Plans

About 36% of respondents plan to vote early, while just over half intend to cast ballots in person on Election Day.

For additional pdfs and spreadsheets see AARP NY’s site https://www.aarp.org/pri/topics/voter-research/politics/new-york-city-mayoral-poll-2025/

Q:1 Likelihood to Vote: How likely are you to vote in the New York City mayoral election this November?

No Data Found

			Gender %		Age %				Party %				Race %						County %					Income %								Education %

Answer	Weighted N	Weighted %	Female	Male	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	Democratic	Republican	Non-Partisan	Other	White (non-Hispanic)	Black or African American	Hispanic or Latino	East or South Asian	Jewish	Other	BRONX	KINGS	NEWYORK	QUEENS	RICHMOND	Under $25,000	$25,000 – $49,999	$50,000 – $74,999	$75,000 – $99,999	$100,000 – $149,999	$150,000 – $199,999	$200,000 or more	Prefer not to say	Less than high school	High school diploma or GED	Some college / Associate degree	Bachelor’s degree	Graduate or professional degree	Prefer not to say
Definitely will vote	980	94.3%	55%	45%	13%	21%	29%	36%	71%	16%	10.0%	3%	41%	21%	18%	6%	8%	6%	16%	30%	20%	25%	9%	8%	14%	16%	13%	20%	10%	7%	12%	2%	16%	20%	41%	17%	4%
Probably will vote	60	5.7%	56%	44%	29%	27%	20%	24%	59%	10%	28%	3%	34%	32%	18%	4%	2%	10%	18%	33%	13%	27%	9%	9%	16%	8%	28%	29%	2%	5%	3%	0%	14%	28%	26%	14%	8%

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Q:2 Vote Intention: If the New York City mayoral election were held today, which candidate would you choose?

No Data Found

			Gender %		Age %				Party %				Race %						County %					Income %								Education %
Answer	Weighted N	Weighted %	Female	Male	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	Democratic	Republican	Non-Partisan	Other	White (non-Hispanic)	Black or African American	Hispanic or Latino	East or South Asian	Jewish	Other	BRONX	KINGS	NEWYORK	QUEENS	RICHMOND	Under $25,000	$25,000 – $49,999	$50,000 – $74,999	$75,000 – $99,999	$100,000 – $149,999	$150,000 – $199,999	$200,000 or more	Prefer not to say	Less than high school	High school diploma or GED	Some college / Associate degree	Bachelor’s degree	Graduate or professional degree	Prefer not to say
Zohran Mamdani	450	43.2%	54%	46%	24%	27%	22%	26%	88%	1%	8%	3%	39%	26%	16%	8%	7%	3%	14%	38%	21%	25%	3%	7%	15%	13%	14%	23%	12%	8%	8%	2%	7%	21%	49%	19%	2%
Andrew Cuomo	301	28.9%	54%	46%	6%	18%	37%	39%	65%	17%	15%	4%	39%	21%	24%	3%	10%	3%	17%	28%	23%	24%	8%	11%	12%	15%	14%	20%	7%	8%	14%	2%	24%	15%	36%	19%	4%
Curtis Sliwa	202	19.4%	50%	50%	8%	16%	33%	43%	31%	50%	13%	6%	54%	6%	18%	6%	5%	11%	16%	14%	13%	31%	26%	5%	16%	17%	16%	18%	10%	5%	14%	1%	24%	24%	34%	10%	6%
Undecided	80	7.7%	71%	29%	4%	19%	28%	49%	86%	7%	7%	0%	23%	42%	18%	3%	3%	11%	21%	36%	20%	22%	1%	10%	17%	29%	3%	15%	5%	2%	18%	0%	17%	28%	31%	13%	11%
Another candidate	8	0.7%	91%	9%	10%	9%	0%	81%	79%	0%	21%	0%	10%	36%	0%	0%	9%	45%	21%	60%	9%	10%	0%	24%	0%	10%	0%	57%	0%	9%	0%	0%	0%	60%	19%	21%	0%

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Q:3 What if your candidate quits?If your preferred candidate withdrew from active campaigning but remained on the ballot, would you:

No Data Found

			Gender %		Age %				Party %				Race %						County %					Income %								Education %
Answer	Weighted N	Weighted %	Female	Male	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	Democratic	Republican	Non-Partisan	Other	White (non-Hispanic)	Black or African American	Hispanic or Latino	East or South Asian	Jewish	Other	BRONX	KINGS	NEWYORK	QUEENS	RICHMOND	Under $25,000	$25,000 – $49,999	$50,000 – $74,999	$75,000 – $99,999	$100,000 – $149,999	$150,000 – $199,999	$200,000 or more	Prefer not to say	Less than high school	High school diploma or GED	Some college / Associate degree	Bachelor’s degree	Graduate or professional degree	Prefer not to say
Vote for a different candidate	256	50.9%	50%	50%	9%	20%	38%	33%	52%	26%	18%	4%	46%	11%	20%	6%	12%	5%	17%	23%	20%	25%	15%	4%	11%	14%	16%	22%	9%	9%	15%	2%	21%	18%	40%	16%	4%
Still vote for them	121	24.1%	53%	47%	7%	18%	30%	45%	44%	41%	9%	6%	44%	14%	24%	1%	6%	11%	20%	18%	19%	26%	17%	14%	18%	13%	16%	16%	5%	6%	12%	3%	28%	18%	32%	14%	5%
Not sure	85	16.9%	56%	44%	1%	7%	37%	55%	60%	26%	9%	5%	46%	23%	20%	2%	2%	8%	11%	17%	16%	38%	18%	12%	9%	24%	6%	19%	9%	4%	17%	0%	28%	15%	29%	17%	11%
Not vote in the mayor's race	41	8.1%	60%	40%	5%	17%	31%	46%	52%	33%	13%	3%	41%	23%	27%	8%	1%	0%	17%	42%	18%	15%	9%	14%	21%	15%	24%	13%	5%	5%	4%	0%	27%	30%	27%	16%	0%

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Q:4 Backup choice: Which candidate would you choose instead?

No Data Found

			Gender %		Age %				Party %				Race %						County %					Income %								Education %
Answer	Weighted N	Weighted %	Female	Male	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	Democratic	Republican	Non-Partisan	Other	White (non-Hispanic)	Black or African American	Hispanic or Latino	East or South Asian	Jewish	Other	BRONX	KINGS	NEWYORK	QUEENS	RICHMOND	Under $25,000	$25,000 – $49,999	$50,000 – $74,999	$75,000 – $99,999	$100,000 – $149,999	$150,000 – $199,999	$200,000 or more	Prefer not to say	Less than high school	High school diploma or GED	Some college / Associate degree	Bachelor’s degree	Graduate or professional degree	Prefer not to say
Curtis Sliwa	108	42.2%	48%	52%	10%	24%	37%	29%	55%	23%	20%	2%	48%	10%	18%	3%	18%	3%	13%	30%	25%	21%	10%	5%	3%	15%	16%	23%	8%	11%	18%	0.0%	19%	10%	48%	20%	2%
Andrew Cuomo	98	38.3%	46%	54%	9%	18%	49%	34%	33%	41%	19%	7%	54%	4%	20%	8%	6%	8%	21%	10%	16%	28%	26%	0%	14%	14%	18%	23%	12%	5%	14%	2%	23%	29%	32%	10%	4%
Undecided	16	6.3%	79%	21%	10%	10%	6%	74%	79%	8%	7%	6%	49%	20%	24%	3%	5%	0%	17%	33%	37%	13%	0%	17%	22%	8%	11%	21%	10%	3%	9%	0.0%	24%	27%	18%	32%	0.0%
Zohran Mamdani	23	8.8%	55%	45%	0%	24%	61%	16%	85%	3%	12%	0%	15%	50%	14%	0%	12%	8%	12%	31%	4%	46%	6%	12%	37%	9%	8%	20%	6%	8%	0%	12%	12%	9%	43%	7%	16%
Another candidate	11	4.3%	53%	47%	16%	11%	36%	37%	86%	0%	11%	3%	15%	0%	31%	23%	31%	0%	25%	41%	16%	18%	0%	0.0%	0%	32%	10%	6%	0%	22%	30%	0.0%	25%	0%	57%	18%	0.0%

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Q:5 Second-choice for mayor: If your first choice were not available, which candidate would be your second choice for mayor?

No Data Found

			Gender %		Age %				Party %				Race %						County %					Income %								Education %
Answer	Weighted N	Weighted %	Female	Male	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	Democratic	Republican	Non-Partisan	Other	White (non-Hispanic)	Black or African American	Hispanic or Latino	East or South Asian	Jewish	Other	BRONX	KINGS	NEWYORK	QUEENS	RICHMOND	Under $25,000	$25,000 – $49,999	$50,000 – $74,999	$75,000 – $99,999	$100,000 – $149,999	$150,000 – $199,999	$200,000 or more	Prefer not to say	Less than high school	High school diploma or GED	Some college / Associate degree	Bachelor’s degree	Graduate or professional degree	Prefer not to say
Undecided	283	27.3%	57%	43%	20%	20%	16%	44%	80%	10%	7%	4%	41%	26%	17%	5%	5%	5%	19%	30%	20%	24%	7%	11%	18%	12%	15%	19%	10%	6%	9%	1%	14%	21%	41%	19%	4%
Curtis Sliwa	214	20.6%	49%	51%	12%	26%	31%	31%	58%	21%	18%	3%	44%	13%	22%	5%	10%	5%	16%	29%	23%	25%	7%	9%	7%	17%	14%	23%	8%	9%	14%	1%	22%	15%	41%	17%	3%
Another candidate	264	25.4%	57%	43%	18%	22%	32%	28%	76%	10%	10%	3%	42%	20%	15%	8%	8%	7%	9%	38%	22%	23%	8%	5%	15%	16%	14%	17%	12%	8%	12%	1%	9%	20%	46%	20%	3%
Andrew Cuomo	222	21.4%	56%	44%	7%	21%	32%	40%	55%	28%	12%	4%	41%	20%	20%	5%	8%	7%	19%	20%	16%	31%	14%	6%	13%	18%	13%	21%	9%	7%	14%	2%	21%	29%	29%	14%	5%
Zohran Mamdani	56	5.4%	58%	42%	5%	20%	52%	23%	94%	1%	5%	0%	17%	47%	25%	1%	5%	4%	15%	44%	11%	23%	7%	9%	22%	18%	6%	37%	2%	6%	1%	5%	15%	11%	52%	9%	8%

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Q:6 Favorable/Unfavorable — Zohran Mamdani

No Data Found

			Gender %		Age %				Party %				Race %						County %					Income %								Education %
Answer	Weighted N	Weighted %	Female	Male	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	Democratic	Republican	Non-Partisan	Other	White (non-Hispanic)	Black or African American	Hispanic or Latino	East or South Asian	Jewish	Other	BRONX	KINGS	NEWYORK	QUEENS	RICHMOND	Under $25,000	$25,000 – $49,999	$50,000 – $74,999	$75,000 – $99,999	$100,000 – $149,999	$150,000 – $199,999	$200,000 or more	Prefer not to say	Less than high school	High school diploma or GED	Some college / Associate degree	Bachelor’s degree	Graduate or professional degree	Prefer not to say
Very Favorable	378	36.3%	54%	46%	24%	27%	24%	24%	89%	1%	8%	2%	38%	26%	17%	7%	7%	5%	15%	36%	22%	24%	3%	8%	15%	13%	15%	22%	13%	7%	7%	3%	7%	20%	50%	19%	1%
Somewhat favorable	119	11.5%	56%	44%	14%	27%	25%	34%	83%	5%	8%	4%	33%	33%	15%	9%	8%	3%	10%	43%	14%	31%	2%	7%	20%	21%	7%	26%	5%	8%	7%	0%	9%	25%	44%	18%	4%
Neutral	73	7.1%	56%	44%	4%	16%	34%	45%	83%	2%	14%	1%	14%	46%	28%	4%	1%	7%	26%	35%	13%	20%	6%	10%	8%	25%	9%	22%	6%	3%	16%	0%	19%	30%	29%	14%	8%
Somewhat unfavorable	57	5.4%	64%	36%	10%	12%	26%	52%	80%	10%	9%	1%	40%	40%	4%	6%	7%	3%	13%	30%	27%	25%	5%	5%	5%	13%	16%	26%	6%	12%	17%	0%	13%	13%	36%	31%	7%
Very Unfavorable	413	39.7%	55%	45%	7%	17%	33%	42%	45%	35%	15%	6%	50%	9%	21%	4%	9%	8%	16%	20%	20%	26%	17%	9%	13%	16%	15%	17%	9%	7%	15%	1%	26%	20%	34%	14%	5%

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Q:7 Favorable/Unfavorable — Curtis Sliwa

No Data Found

			Gender %		Age %				Party %				Race %						County %					Income %								Education %
Answer	Weighted N	Weighted %	Female	Male	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	Democratic	Republican	Non-Partisan	Other	White (non-Hispanic)	Black or African American	Hispanic or Latino	East or South Asian	Jewish	Other	BRONX	KINGS	NEWYORK	QUEENS	RICHMOND	Under $25,000	$25,000 – $49,999	$50,000 – $74,999	$75,000 – $99,999	$100,000 – $149,999	$150,000 – $199,999	$200,000 or more	Prefer not to say	Less than high school	High school diploma or GED	Some college / Associate degree	Bachelor’s degree	Graduate or professional degree	Prefer not to say
Very Favorable	213	20.5%	55%	45%	7%	15%	34%	45%	34%	45%	13%	8%	55%	8%	19%	5%	4%	9%	18%	16%	11%	30%	26%	9%	15%	18%	19%	17%	8%	3%	9%	2%	26%	22%	34%	10%	6%
Somewhat favorable	153	14.8%	49%	51%	9%	23%	33%	35%	63%	22%	14%	1%	36%	15%	28%	5%	10%	6%	17%	24%	26%	26%	6%	5%	16%	19%	14%	18%	6%	8%	14%	2%	27%	15%	38%	17%	1%
Neutral	181	17.4%	48%	52%	19%	25%	27%	28%	70%	9%	17%	4%	33%	29%	15%	8%	6%	9%	20%	32%	18%	26%	4%	10%	10%	13%	9%	28%	8%	8%	12%	2%	15%	26%	36%	16%	5%
Somewhat unfavorable	198	19.1%	60%	40%	18%	18%	27%	37%	84%	5%	9%	2%	44%	30%	12%	6%	6%	2%	12%	38%	20%	25%	5%	6%	12%	16%	12%	21%	13%	8%	13%	0%	10%	16%	48%	22%	4%
Very Unfavorable	294	28.3%	59%	41%	16%	26%	25%	33%	90%	2%	6%	2%	35%	26%	19%	5%	11%	4%	13%	38%	25%	21%	3%	9%	16%	13%	13%	19%	10%	8%	10%	1%	9%	23%	44%	19%	3%

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Q:8 Favorable/Unfavorable — Andrew Cuomo

No Data Found

			Gender %		Age %				Party %				Race %						County %					Income %								Education %
Answer	Weighted N	Weighted %	Female	Male	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	Democratic	Republican	Non-Partisan	Other	White (non-Hispanic)	Black or African American	Hispanic or Latino	East or South Asian	Jewish	Other	BRONX	KINGS	NEWYORK	QUEENS	RICHMOND	Under $25,000	$25,000 – $49,999	$50,000 – $74,999	$75,000 – $99,999	$100,000 – $149,999	$150,000 – $199,999	$200,000 or more	Prefer not to say	Less than high school	High school diploma or GED	Some college / Associate degree	Bachelor’s degree	Graduate or professional degree	Prefer not to say
Very Favorable	182	17.5%	60%	40%	3%	13%	47%	37%	75%	8%	13%	4%	25%	26%	35%	3%	7%	3%	21%	27%	22%	27%	3%	13%	19%	14%	16%	14%	7%	5%	13%	5%	24%	18%	29%	18%	5%
Somewhat favorable	200	19.2%	60%	40%	7%	21%	23%	49%	70%	17%	10%	3%	44%	21%	18%	5%	7%	5%	19%	28%	19%	25%	10%	6%	9%	17%	14%	24%	5%	10%	14%	0%	18%	26%	37%	17%	2%
Neutral	154	14.8%	50%	50%	12%	13%	34%	42%	49%	29%	17%	5%	36%	22%	14%	9%	9%	10%	11%	25%	17%	33%	14%	7%	19%	20%	10%	22%	7%	4%	12%	0%	29%	18%	30%	12%	10%
Somewhat unfavorable	160	15.4%	56%	44%	11%	22%	20%	47%	63%	21%	12%	4%	50%	21%	16%	3%	6%	5%	17%	29%	17%	22%	14%	6%	14%	10%	17%	22%	10%	8%	12%	2%	11%	25%	42%	20%	1%
Very Unfavorable	344	33.0%	52%	48%	27%	31%	24%	19%	80%	11%	7%	2%	45%	20%	13%	8%	8%	6%	12%	37%	23%	23%	6%	8%	12%	17%	12%	21%	14%	8%	8%	1%	8%	18%	53%	17%	3%

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Q:9 Top issues: share of respondents selecting each

No Data Found

			Gender %		Age %				Party %				Race %						County %					Income %								Education %
Answer	Weighted N	Weighted %	Female	Male	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	Democratic	Republican	Non-Partisan	Other	White (non-Hispanic)	Black or African American	Hispanic or Latino	East or South Asian	Jewish	Other	BRONX	KINGS	NEWYORK	QUEENS	RICHMOND	Under $25,000	$25,000 – $49,999	$50,000 – $74,999	$75,000 – $99,999	$100,000 – $149,999	$150,000 – $199,999	$200,000 or more	Prefer not to say	Less than high school	High school diploma or GED	Some college / Associate degree	Bachelor’s degree	Graduate or professional degree	Prefer not to say
Cost of living	662	63.6%	59%	41%	18%	24%	25%	33%	74%	11%	11%	3%	39%	25%	19%	6%	5%	5%	17%	32%	19%	26%	6%	10%	16%	16%	12%	20%	9%	8%	9%	2%	15%	21%	42%	16%	4%
Public safety	505	48.6%	53%	47%	9%	21%	32%	37%	56%	24%	16%	4%	41%	15%	20%	5%	11%	7%	19%	26%	18%	26%	10%	5%	10%	18%	13%	18%	9%	9%	17%	1%	18%	21%	39%	18%	4%
Housing affordability	405	38.9%	57%	43%	20%	28%	27%	26%	80%	7%	12%	1%	35%	29%	20%	6%	5%	5%	15%	37%	22%	24%	3%	9%	15%	19%	15%	19%	9%	7%	8%	3%	15%	20%	42%	17%	3%
Finding and keeping affordable healthcare	278	26.7%	69%	31%	12%	13%	24%	51%	83%	8%	4%	4%	41%	28%	15%	4%	5%	5%	14%	34%	19%	25%	9%	11%	17%	16%	12%	25%	6%	4%	9%	1%	11%	20%	45%	15%	8%
Services to help older residents remain in their homes as they age	173	16.6%	67%	33%	4%	7%	22%	68%	69%	18%	7%	6%	37%	26%	21%	4%	7%	5%	18%	26%	21%	25%	11%	14%	25%	14%	10%	15%	7%	2%	12%	0%	16%	30%	26%	21%	7%
Public transportation access and affordability	197	18.9%	56%	44%	28%	24%	23%	25%	86%	6%	5%	3%	46%	20%	14%	6%	11%	3%	12%	37%	25%	21%	5%	7%	11%	14%	16%	17%	15%	10%	10%	1%	9%	12%	54%	22%	2%
Better jobs and economic opportunities	190	18.3%	51%	49%	20%	31%	28%	21%	67%	20%	12%	1%	38%	24%	15%	8%	11%	5%	12%	37%	20%	22%	9%	4%	13%	15%	9%	20%	13%	12%	14%	0%	18%	14%	45%	23%	1%
Utility and energy costs	192	18.4%	52%	48%	7%	22%	29%	41%	61%	26%	8%	6%	57%	14%	12%	4%	6%	7%	14%	23%	11%	33%	19%	6%	7%	15%	11%	30%	8%	7%	17%	2%	18%	20%	38%	17%	5%
Other	76	7.3%	37%	63%	7%	13%	54%	26%	65%	19%	10%	5%	43%	5%	21%	9%	17%	5%	12%	21%	22%	36%	9%	12%	4%	7%	13%	31%	9%	10%	14%	0%	28%	12%	37%	19%	5%

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Q:10 Leadership style:Which approach to city leadership do you prefer?

No Data Found

			Gender %		Age %				Party %				Race %						County %					Income %								Education %
Answer	Weighted N	Weighted %	Female	Male	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	Democratic	Republican	Non-Partisan	Other	White (non-Hispanic)	Black or African American	Hispanic or Latino	East or South Asian	Jewish	Other	BRONX	KINGS	NEWYORK	QUEENS	RICHMOND	Under $25,000	$25,000 – $49,999	$50,000 – $74,999	$75,000 – $99,999	$100,000 – $149,999	$150,000 – $199,999	$200,000 or more	Prefer not to say	Less than high school	High school diploma or GED	Some college / Associate degree	Bachelor’s degree	Graduate or professional degree	Prefer not to say
A mayor who focuses on improving existing systems	483	46.4%	57%	43%	10%	17%	31%	42%	72%	14%	11%	3%	37%	24%	20%	4%	8%	7%	15%	31%	21%	27%	5%	7%	16%	17%	13%	21%	8%	7%	11%	3%	16%	19%	40%	19%	4%
A mayor who pursues major policy changes	358	34.4%	52%	48%	24%	29%	23%	24%	73%	11%	14%	2%	44%	17%	19%	8%	7%	4%	16%	32%	19%	25%	8%	10%	12%	14%	13%	20%	13%	9%	9%	0%	10%	21%	47%	17%	4%
Neither of these approaches appeal to me	200	19.2%	56%	44%	7%	20%	33%	40%	59%	29%	6%	6%	44%	24%	14%	5%	8%	6%	16%	26%	19%	22%	17%	7%	13%	16%	16%	20%	7%	4%	16%	0%	27%	25%	30%	14%	4%

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Q:11 Voting strategy: What best describes your approach to choosing a candidate?

No Data Found

			Gender %		Age %				Party %				Race %						County %					Income %								Education %
Answer	Weighted N	Weighted %	Female	Male	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	Democratic	Republican	Non-Partisan	Other	White (non-Hispanic)	Black or African American	Hispanic or Latino	East or South Asian	Jewish	Other	BRONX	KINGS	NEWYORK	QUEENS	RICHMOND	Under $25,000	$25,000 – $49,999	$50,000 – $74,999	$75,000 – $99,999	$100,000 – $149,999	$150,000 – $199,999	$200,000 or more	Prefer not to say	Less than high school	High school diploma or GED	Some college / Associate degree	Bachelor’s degree	Graduate or professional degree	Prefer not to say
I choose based on who can bring change	276	26.5%	57%	43%	13%	20%	30%	37%	71%	17%	9%	3%	25%	29%	29%	5%	4%	9%	21%	32%	15%	24%	8%	17%	18%	20%	10%	17%	4%	4%	10%	3%	19%	26%	28%	16%	8%
I choose the candidate closest to my views	727	69.9%	55%	45%	14%	23%	28%	35%	70%	15%	12%	4%	47%	20%	14%	6%	8%	5%	14%	29%	22%	26%	9%	5%	13%	14%	15%	22%	11%	8%	11%	0%	15%	19%	45%	18%	2%
I choose based on who can win	37	3.5%	40%	60%	20%	16%	26%	38%	63%	22%	15%	0%	36%	14%	14%	5%	24%	7%	0%	49%	13%	24%	15%	8%	7%	9%	15%	15%	11%	10%	26%	8%	23%	14%	44%	11%	1%

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Q:12 Right Track / Wrong Track:How do you feel about the direction New York City is headed?

No Data Found

			Gender %		Age %				Party %				Race %						County %					Income %								Education %
Answer	Weighted N	Weighted %	Female	Male	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	Democratic	Republican	Non-Partisan	Other	White (non-Hispanic)	Black or African American	Hispanic or Latino	East or South Asian	Jewish	Other	BRONX	KINGS	NEWYORK	QUEENS	RICHMOND	Under $25,000	$25,000 – $49,999	$50,000 – $74,999	$75,000 – $99,999	$100,000 – $149,999	$150,000 – $199,999	$200,000 or more	Prefer not to say	Less than high school	High school diploma or GED	Some college / Associate degree	Bachelor’s degree	Graduate or professional degree	Prefer not to say
Right direction	96	9.2%	46%	54%	25%	26%	23%	26%	79%	7%	12%	1%	32%	29%	23%	8%	4%	3%	14%	35%	15%	36%	1%	17%	8%	10%	9%	26%	10%	11%	9%	3%	13%	13%	45%	17%	8%
Wrong direction	579	55.7%	56%	44%	13%	21%	29%	38%	62%	23%	11%	4%	43%	19%	20%	6%	7%	6%	16%	28%	19%	24%	13%	8%	15%	18%	14%	19%	9%	4%	12%	1%	19%	23%	40%	13%	4%
Mixed/Neither	321	30.9%	54%	46%	14%	23%	28%	35%	79%	8%	10%	3%	40%	23%	15%	5%	10%	6%	15%	33%	22%	25%	5%	6%	13%	13%	15%	21%	10%	11%	10%	2%	13%	18%	42%	24%	2%
No opinion	43	4.2%	66%	34%	13%	19%	36%	32%	88%	1%	8%	3%	28%	40%	12%	7%	3%	10%	17%	27%	22%	32%	2%	3%	18%	18%	11%	26%	6%	6%	13%	0%	13%	25%	26%	23%	13%

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Q:13 Future Outlook: How do you feel about New York City's future?

No Data Found

			Gender %		Age %				Party %				Race %						County %					Income %								Education %
Answer	Weighted N	Weighted %	Female	Male	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	Democratic	Republican	Non-Partisan	Other	White (non-Hispanic)	Black or African American	Hispanic or Latino	East or South Asian	Jewish	Other	BRONX	KINGS	NEWYORK	QUEENS	RICHMOND	Under $25,000	$25,000 – $49,999	$50,000 – $74,999	$75,000 – $99,999	$100,000 – $149,999	$150,000 – $199,999	$200,000 or more	Prefer not to say	Less than high school	High school diploma or GED	Some college / Associate degree	Bachelor’s degree	Graduate or professional degree	Prefer not to say
Very optimistic — with the right leadership, things can improve	370	35.6%	58%	42%	16%	25%	28%	31%	77%	11%	9%	3%	37%	21%	24%	8%	6%	5%	19%	34%	18%	26%	4%	8%	17%	15%	13%	21%	12%	7%	8%	2%	15%	20%	43%	17%	3%
Somewhat optimistic — I’m not sure who to trust, but I haven’t given up	274	26.3%	58%	42%	16%	23%	19%	42%	79%	9%	9%	4%	40%	28%	13%	5%	8%	6%	14%	33%	18%	27%	8%	9%	10%	17%	13%	21%	9%	9%	12%	1%	14%	20%	41%	19%	5%
Very pessimistic — NYC’s future looks bleak no matter who the next mayor is	65	6.3%	37%	63%	10%	20%	39%	31%	55%	30%	9%	7%	33%	37%	13%	6%	6%	4%	10%	33%	20%	14%	23%	10%	28%	14%	7%	23%	8%	3%	8%	0%	30%	19%	38%	10%	3%
Somewhat pessimistic — the city is headed in the wrong direction	221	21.3%	52%	48%	12%	20%	37%	31%	49%	31%	16%	4%	48%	10%	21%	5%	9%	8%	15%	21%	22%	28%	14%	6%	12%	14%	15%	21%	10%	6%	17%	2%	22%	22%	37%	15%	3%
Neither optimistic nor pessimistic – I am not sure	109	10.5%	56%	44%	10%	15%	29%	46%	74%	10%	14%	2%	44%	26%	11%	1%	10%	7%	11%	31%	27%	21%	9%	12%	11%	22%	17%	18%	2%	9%	11%	0%	8%	25%	41%	20%	7%

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Q:14 Preferred Voting Method: How do you plan to vote in the mayoral election?

No Data Found

			Gender %		Age %				Party %				Race %						County %					Income %								Education %
Answer	Weighted N	Weighted %	Female	Male	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	Democratic	Republican	Non-Partisan	Other	White (non-Hispanic)	Black or African American	Hispanic or Latino	East or South Asian	Jewish	Other	BRONX	KINGS	NEWYORK	QUEENS	RICHMOND	Under $25,000	$25,000 – $49,999	$50,000 – $74,999	$75,000 – $99,999	$100,000 – $149,999	$150,000 – $199,999	$200,000 or more	Prefer not to say	Less than high school	High school diploma or GED	Some college / Associate degree	Bachelor’s degree	Graduate or professional degree	Prefer not to say
On Election Day at a polling place	527	50.7%	51%	49%	10%	23%	32%	35%	62%	21%	13%	5%	44%	21%	19%	5%	6%	6%	18%	28%	17%	27%	10%	8%	16%	18%	12%	22%	8%	6%	10%	1%	22%	24%	34%	16%	3%
During the early voting period	374	36.0%	60%	40%	18%	22%	24%	35%	80%	10%	9%	2%	42%	22%	14%	7%	9%	6%	11%	35%	24%	24%	6%	6%	11%	12%	17%	20%	11%	9%	15%	0%	11%	15%	52%	18%	4%
Haven't decided yet	62	6.0%	69%	31%	20%	23%	30%	27%	71%	11%	15%	4%	16%	25%	25%	11%	12%	11%	14%	41%	15%	27%	4%	15%	12%	21%	9%	23%	2%	10%	8%	2%	5%	35%	33%	16%	8%
By absentee ballot	67	6.4%	52%	48%	17%	9%	23%	51%	73%	15%	10%	3%	32%	27%	27%	4%	9%	1%	26%	15%	24%	19%	16%	8%	19%	11%	17%	14%	18%	7%	5%	4%	10%	19%	42%	25%	0%
Other	10	1.0%	10%	90%	0%	6%	56%	38%	100%	0%	0%	0%	10%	28%	56%	0%	0%	6%	28%	34%	10%	28%	0%	56%	0%	28%	0%	0%	0%	0%	16%	28%	28%	10%	0%	0%	34%

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Q:15 Political identity: How would you describe your political views?

No Data Found

			Gender %		Age %				Party %				Race %						County %					Income %								Education %
Answer	Weighted N	Weighted %	Female	Male	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	Democratic	Republican	Non-Partisan	Other	White (non-Hispanic)	Black or African American	Hispanic or Latino	East or South Asian	Jewish	Other	BRONX	KINGS	NEWYORK	QUEENS	RICHMOND	Under $25,000	$25,000 – $49,999	$50,000 – $74,999	$75,000 – $99,999	$100,000 – $149,999	$150,000 – $199,999	$200,000 or more	Prefer not to say	Less than high school	High school diploma or GED	Some college / Associate degree	Bachelor’s degree	Graduate or professional degree	Prefer not to say
Very liberal	243.1576874	23.4%	54%	46%	31%	28%	18%	23%	93%	1%	5%	1%	41%	24%	16%	8%	7%	4%	15%	40%	22%	21%	2%	10%	15%	12%	14%	24%	12%	6%	7%	2%	11%	16%	52%	19%	0%
Somewhat liberal	199.28164	19.2%	61%	39%	14%	18%	27%	41%	92%	2%	4%	1%	41%	26%	14%	6%	10%	3%	14%	32%	25%	22%	6%	4%	13%	16%	11%	24%	9%	12%	11%	0%	8%	18%	49%	22%	3%
Moderate / centrist	201.241052	19.4%	49%	51%	9%	25%	32%	34%	61%	15%	20%	5%	44%	19%	14%	5%	12%	7%	9%	26%	29%	30%	7%	5%	14%	9%	13%	25%	10%	9%	14%	0%	13%	20%	39%	23%	5%
No particular preference	154.5041516	14.9%	64%	36%	8%	18%	37%	36%	65%	14%	16%	5%	23%	33%	24%	7%	5%	8%	20%	37%	11%	22%	9%	11%	14%	29%	14%	12%	6%	2%	14%	3%	21%	28%	33%	7%	8%
Somewhat conservative	157.1547234	15.1%	53%	47%	5%	20%	38%	36%	46%	37%	13%	5%	45%	15%	25%	3%	3%	8%	23%	18%	18%	28%	12%	11%	12%	14%	19%	17%	8%	7%	13%	3%	27%	22%	31%	12%	4%
Very conservative	84.66074567	8.1%	47%	53%	6%	12%	23%	59%	29%	55%	10%	6%	54%	9%	24%	4%	3%	6%	14%	20%	1%	33%	31%	9%	18%	22%	10%	17%	10%	4%	10%	1%	30%	27%	22%	13%	7%

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The Data is Not Available

Methods & Transparency NYC Mayor General Election Survey of Voters 18+, October 2025

Sponsor & Fielding

Sponsor: AARP
Conducted by: Gotham Polling & Analytics
Mode & language: SMS invitations to a self-administered web survey (English only)
Field date: October 14-15, 2025
Average questionnaire time: 2 minutes 36 seconds.

Population, Frame, and Sample

Population: Likely voters registered in New York City (five boroughs), age 18+.
Sampling frame: L2 voter file of registered voters in NYC (five boroughs) with matched mobile
numbers (N=4,745,759).
Sample design: Random selection of 80,000 records from the frame (stratified by Age Range
(birth-year), Voter Gender, and Party description).
Invitations sent: 79,489 SMS

Dispositions (AAPOR-style mapping)

Complete interviews (I): 1,040
Partial interviews (P): 252
Screened ineligible (NE): 48 (not likely to vote)
Refusals (R): 2,890 (“do not text”)
Other eligible non-interview (O): 355 (DNC + other replies)
Undelivered (UH): 3,533
Delivered (approx.): 67,010
Non-contact (NC): 83,274 (Delivered – (I+P+R+O))
Outcome Rates (AAPOR Standard Definitions; RR3 uses ê for UH)
ê (eligibility rate among known) = 0.954
RR1 = 0.012 • RR3 = 0.012
COOP1 = 0.229 • CON1 = 0.0545 • REF1 = 0.037

Weighting

Variables: gender, age, party registration, race, county, household income, and education.
Targets: NYC general-election voter distributions (2021 & 2022).
Method: iterative proportional fiting (raking), then normalization. Final reporting uses the
“Normalized Weight” in SurveyData.
Trimming: weights winsorized at CapMultiplier × median (final weight) with CapMultiplier=4.0
by default; renormalized to mean=1.
Diagnostics: Based on the current cap in the Weights sheet, DEFF » 1.73 and n_eff » 600; 95%
MOE near 50% » ±4.0 points (within-frame).

Questionnaire & Routing

Full question wording and response options are provided in the attached Questionnaire PDF
(exact text as displayed in data headers).
Key skips (summary): “Backup choice” was asked after vote intention; results include modeled “dropout scenarios” that reallocate first-choice votes to each respondent’s backup choice.
Respondents who remained undecided, selected “another candidate,” provided no backup, or
backed a candidate who also dropped remain in the “Undecided + Another” bucket.

Quality Controls & Limitations

Quality: de-duplication by L2ID/device/IP; speed checks; straight-line flags; geofencing to NYC;
termination of unlikely voters (n=48).
Coverage: registered voters with matched mobile numbers; nonresponse and measurement
error are possible; SMS-to-web mode effects may occur.
Interpretation of modeled scenarios: “dropout scenario” head-to-heads are modeled
outcomes, not observed elections.

Dropout Scenario Modeling

The survey included two “dropout” scenarios to model potential two-way runoffs should a major candidate exit the race. Results are weighted to the full analytic base (N = 1,040) and reflect respondents’ stated backup or second-choice preferences.

Scenario 1 – Cuomo Drops (Mamdani vs. Sliwa)

This scenario redistributes respondents who originally supported Andrew Cuomo based on their stated backup or second-choice candidate.

Mamdani % includes: original Mamdani voters + Cuomo voters whose backup was Mamdani + Undecided/Another voters who listed Mamdani as their second choice.
Sliwa % includes: original Sliwa voters + Cuomo voters whose backup was Sliwa + Undecided/Another voters who listed Sliwa as their second choice.
Undecided + Another % includes everyone else (Cuomo voters with no or non-matching backup choice, and undecideds who did not lean to either).

Scenario 2 – Sliwa Drops (Mamdani vs. Cuomo)

This scenario redistributes respondents who originally supported Curtis Sliwa based on their stated backup or second-choice candidate.

Mamdani % includes: original Mamdani voters + Sliwa voters whose backup was Mamdani + Undecided/Another voters who listed Mamdani as their second choice.
Cuomo % includes: original Cuomo voters + Sliwa voters whose backup was Cuomo + Undecided/Another voters who listed Cuomo as their second choice.
Undecided + Another % includes all remaining respondents with no or unrelated backup choice.
Each row’s demographic percentages represent weighted shares within that candidate’s support group (weighted base = 1,040).

Contact:

Gotham Polling & Analytics
press@gothampolling.com
htps://gothampolling.com/
“Precision Polling for Data-Driven Political Strategies”

Syed Nofel

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Key Findings

Head-to-Head Scenarios

Scenario 1: Cuomo drops out

Scenario 2: Adams drops out

Favorability and Issue Landscape

Voting Plans

Q:1 Likelihood to Vote: How likely are you to vote in the New York City mayoral election this November?

Q:2 Vote Intention: If the New York City mayoral election were held today, which candidate would you choose?

Q:3 What if your candidate quits?If your preferred candidate withdrew from active campaigning but remained on the ballot, would you:

Q:4 Backup choice: Which candidate would you choose instead?

Q:5 Second-choice for mayor: If your first choice were not available, which candidate would be your second choice for mayor?

Q:6 Favorable/Unfavorable — Zohran Mamdani

Q:7 Favorable/Unfavorable — Curtis Sliwa

Q:8 Favorable/Unfavorable — Andrew Cuomo

Q:9 Top issues: share of respondents selecting each

Q:10 Leadership style:Which approach to city leadership do you prefer?

Q:11 Voting strategy: What best describes your approach to choosing a candidate?

Q:12 Right Track / Wrong Track:How do you feel about the direction New York City is headed?

Q:13 Future Outlook: How do you feel about New York City's future?

Q:14 Preferred Voting Method: How do you plan to vote in the mayoral election?

Q:15 Political identity: How would you describe your political views?

Methods & Transparency NYC Mayor General Election Survey of Voters 18+, October 2025

Sponsor & Fielding

Population, Frame, and Sample

Dispositions (AAPOR-style mapping)

Weighting

Questionnaire & Routing

Quality Controls & Limitations

Dropout Scenario Modeling

Scenario 1 – Cuomo Drops (Mamdani vs. Sliwa)

Scenario 2 – Sliwa Drops (Mamdani vs. Cuomo)

Contact:

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