Categories: Results

Analysis: New York State Voter Assessment – October 2022

New York State

Registered Republicans are most likely to be 50+ (62%), while registered Democrats and smaller parties are evenly split between voters over and under 50. Independent voters (those who are “blank” or are not registered to a political party) are the youngest as a group and only 39% are 50 years or older. Interestingly, this general pattern holds true for registration numbers in every region and almost every county. The only significant exception is in New York City, where the majority of voters are under 50 years of age and with almost 2/3 of independent voters under 50 years old.

In the August 2022 Primary, electing party candidates for US House of Representatives and the New York State Senate, as well as a Special Election in the 19th and 23rd Congressional Districts, 75% of the overall vote was comprised of New Yorkers 50+. This broke down further with 84% of Republican voters and 71% of Democrats being 50+. Not every district had a primary or special. When the scope is widened to those who voted in any primary or special election in 2022 (including state level primaries), the ratios are similar with the 50+ comprising 73% of all voters, 81% of Republicans and 70% of Democrats

The data also includes a look at voters who had voted in each of the last 4 general elections in 2021, 2020, 2019 and 2018, which encompasses at least one full term for most elected offices. These voters can be expected to be the most likely to vote in any upcoming election. In almost every region and county, the 50+ comprise over 75% and often well over 80% of these votes. Even in New York City, which trends younger, a full 2/3 of these “super voters” are 50+ years of age. Interestingly, whereas the majority of the much vaunted independent (non-partisan) voters in all regions are under 50, those in the 4 of 4 group are 78% 50+, similar to Republicans (82%) and Democrats (74%). Thus, the 50+ comprise the vast majority of those voters most likely to vote across all party and non-partisan election types.