Two of Gov. Kathy Hochul’s potential 2026 challengers are yet to turn 40 — but their success in New York politics could be decided by older voters.

People under age 50 are trending away from registering in either party, said Stephen Graves, president of Gotham Polling and Analytics. As a result, the state’s closed party primaries are composed of older people.

“Both parties are getting older in their registration, with the Republicans being predominantly 50-plus in every county,” Graves told Playbook.

And New York’s younger voters — including those who have shunned party affiliation — are not showing up as frequently as older ones.

Graves has analyzed data for AARP New York, a group with a vested interest in the habits of older New Yorkers.

His firm’s data crunching after the June primary found voters 50 and older represented 72 percent of the turnout. Their impact is augmented by low turnout in party primaries.

“For a Democratic primary, the person who wins women over 50 is likely to win the primary,” Graves.

It’s a demographic pattern that confounds the emphasis President-elect Donald Trump’s successful campaign placed on young male voters.

It’s also a trend that coincides with Republican Rep. Mike Lawler, 38, and Democratic Rep. Ritchie Torres, 36, weighing runs against Hochul, 66. Spokespeople for Lawler and Hochul did not comment.

Torres, a Bronx Democrat, told Playbook via text he could transcend age.

“If I were to run for governor, I could offer the best of both worlds: representing a break from a broken system while at the same time espousing broadly popular positions on public safety and affordability that appeal to older voters,” he said.

The age issue is a challenge for political professionals and party leaders to reach and engage with younger voters, who have vastly different media habits.

Zak Constantine, the 24-year-old chair of the Orange County Democratic Committee, said campaigns need to focus on issues that resonate with Gen Z voters, like affordability and climate change, or risk losing them. Economic concerns rank as a top issue for voters of all ages, while environmental issues appear to matter decidedly more to younger people.

“They’re not going to just disengage with our elections, they’re going to write off our institutions,” he told Playbook.

New York Democrats flipped three House seats, in part, by harnessing voters on college campuses.

Constantine wants the party to have an aggressive presence on college campuses and in media spaces occupied by young people. Weighing in on a point of debate in presidential postmortems, he said Vice President Kamala Harris “absolutely” should have gone on The Joe Rogan Experience podcast.

But the trend of people under 50 moving away from the party is a concern.

“We are going to reverse that trend,” he said. “That’s so important to me as a Democratic Party leader. As young people we seek community.”

After years of failing with people under 40, Republicans believe they have the wind at their backs after Trump’s success with the younger voters.

“It was a simple formula of ‘let’s talk about the border, let’s talk about inflation, let’s talk about public safety,’” said Peter Giunta, the chair of the New York Young Republican Club. — Nick Reisman