Poll NY CD4 Oct 2024
NY-4 Congressional Race Locked in a Statistical Tie as Key Issues Drive Voter Preferences
The survey of likely voters in CD4, shows a razor-thin margin between incumbent Republican Anthony D’Esposito and Democratic challenger Laura Gillen. With 46% of likely voters supporting D’Esposito and 45% backing Gillen, the race is currently too close to call, falling well within the poll’s margin of error.
Poll Details:
- Sample size: 734 respondents
- Margin of error: ±3.62% at a 95% confidence interval
- Voter turnout: 7.7% of respondents have already voted, and 88.1% are “likely” to vote at the time surveyed.
Key Findings:
- D’Esposito leads with 46.0% of the likely vote, supported predominantly by men (48%), older voters, and Republicans.
- Gillen trails closely with 45.0%, gaining strong support from women (59%) and Democrats.
- 6% of voters remain unsure about their choice, and 1.8% say they will vote for neither candidate.
Observations:
- D’Esposito is winning a greater portion of independent voters (26% vs 19%) and more cross over votes (18%) compared to Gillen (11%).
- A combined 55.6% of voters selected the Inflation/Economy and Immigration as their top issue, which are expected to favor Republican candidates.
- Perhaps the most significant challenge to Gillen is that 49.3% of survey respondents believed generic Republican candidates would be more likely to act on their favored issue, while Democrats garnered only 46.2%.
- Conversely, the challenge to D’Esposito is that he is potentially trailing generic Republican sentiment by over 3% points. That provides opportunities for both candidates to capture the 6% that were still undecided but likely to vote.
Voter Issues:
The top issues driving voter decisions include:
- 38.2% of likely voters cite inflation and the economy as the most important issue.
- 18.7% prioritize reproductive rights, particularly among women voters.
- 17.4% focus on immigration.
- Other concerns include crime and public safety (6%) and the U.S. role in global affairs (6.9%).
With a margin of error of ±3.62%, the race remains a statistical tie, and the outcome could be swayed by undecided voters and turnout among key demographics like independents and younger female voters.
Q1 How likely are you to vote in the upcoming November Election?
No Data Found
| Q1 | Total | Gender | Age | Party | Race/Ethnic | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANSWERS | Likely | Men | Women | 18-35 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | Rep | Dem | Ind | WHT | BLK | HIS | OTH | UNK |
| 1. Already voted | 7.7% | 50% | 50% | 15% | 10% | 31% | 45% | 30% | 49% | 21% | 61% | 8% | 3% | 15% | 12% |
| 2. Likely to vote | 88.1% | 44% | 56% | 19% | 23% | 29% | 30% | 33% | 44% | 23% | 62% | 9% | 5% | 9% | 15% |
| 3. Maybe voting | 3.0% | 42% | 58% | 29% | 16% | 31% | 24% | 25% | 58% | 18% | 100% | ||||
| 4. Probably not voting | 1.4% | 35% | 65% | 0% | 46% | 28% | 27% | 34% | 46% | 20% | 100% | ||||
| Responses | 734 | 367 | 367 | 99 | 154 | 231 | 250 | 281 | 314 | 139 | 432 | 65 | 31 | 69 | 137 |
| % of electorate | 100% | 46% | 54% | 24% | 24% | 25% | 26% | 29% | 42% | 25% | 49% | 15% | 13% | 8% | 15% |
Q2 Who are you most likely to vote for or have already voted for US House Representative?
No Data Found
| Q2 | Total | Gender | Age | Party | Race/Ethnic | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANSWERS | Likely | Men | Women | 18-35 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | Rep | Dem | Ind | WHT | BLK | HIS | OTH | UNK |
| Anthony D'Esposito | 46.0% | 48% | 52% | 19% | 26% | 27% | 29% | 56% | 18% | 26% | 50% | 23% | 52% | 46% | 51% |
| Laura Gillen | 45.0% | 41% | 59% | 15% | 20% | 32% | 33% | 11% | 70% | 19% | 44% | 63% | 45% | 39% | 38% |
| Unsure | 6.0% | 50% | 50% | 21% | 13% | 28% | 38% | 31% | 51% | 18% | 5% | 9% | 3% | 6% | 9% |
| Neither | 1.8% | 34% | 66% | 59% | 13% | 14% | 14% | 13% | 73% | 14% | 0% | 5% | 0% | 4% | 1% |
| Not voting for Congress | 1.3% | 35% | 65% | 26% | 15% | 21% | 39% | 20% | 53% | 26% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 4% | 2% |
| Responses | 703 | 353 | 350 | 94 | 147 | 221 | 241 | 271 | 298 | 134 | 432 | 65 | 31 | 69 | 106 |
| % of electorate | 100% | 46% | 54% | 24% | 24% | 25% | 26% | 29% | 42% | 25% | 49% | 15% | 13% | 8% | 15% |
Q3 What do you believe to be the single most important issue in the election?
No Data Found
| Q3 | Total | Gender | Age | Party | Race/Ethnic | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANSWERS | Likely | Men | Women | 18-35 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | Rep | Dem | Ind | WHT | BLK | HIS | OTH | UNK |
| Inflation/Economy | 38.2% | 46% | 54% | 18% | 23% | 28% | 30% | 44% | 36% | 20% | 64% | 10% | 6% | 10% | 11% |
| US Role in Global Affairs | 6.9% | 55% | 45% | 26% | 13% | 25% | 36% | 27% | 55% | 18% | 51% | 15% | 4% | 13% | 17% |
| Crime and Public Saftey | 2.2% | 49% | 51% | 47% | 18% | 12% | 24% | 12% | 76% | 11% | 50% | 21% | 14% | 7% | 7% |
| Reproductive Rights | 6.0% | 49% | 51% | 19% | 21% | 29% | 30% | 36% | 28% | 36% | 60% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 19% |
| Affordable Housing | 18.7% | 30% | 70% | 10% | 27% | 33% | 29% | 13% | 64% | 23% | 65% | 10% | 2% | 8% | 14% |
| Immigration | 17.4% | 53% | 47% | 17% | 25% | 27% | 31% | 45% | 23% | 31% | 58% | 6% | 2% | 9% | 23% |
| Something Else | 10.8% | 43% | 57% | 21% | 10% | 33% | 36% | 15% | 71% | 14% | 61% | 5% | 4% | 14% | 16% |
| Responses | 703 | 353 | 350 | 94 | 147 | 221 | 241 | 271 | 298 | 134 | 432 | 65 | 31 | 69 | 106 |
| % of electorate | 100% | 46% | 54% | 24% | 24% | 25% | 26% | 29% | 42% | 25% | 49% | 15% | 13% | 8% | 15% |
Q4 Which political party candidates do you believe is most likely to act on the issue you identified as most important?
No Data Found
| Q4 | Total | Gender | Age | Party | Race/Ethnic | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANSWERS | Likely | Men | Women | 18-35 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | Rep | Dem | Ind | WHT | BLK | HIS | OTH | UNK |
| Republicans | 49.3% | 49% | 51% | 19% | 23% | 28% | 30% | 55% | 19% | 26% | 66% | 5% | 5% | 9% | 16% |
| Democrats | 46.2% | 38% | 62% | 17% | 21% | 29% | 32% | 10% | 71% | 19% | 60% | 14% | 4% | 10% | 12% |
| Other | 1.4% | 59% | 41% | 24% | 0% | 51% | 25% | 26% | 58% | 17% | 30% | 20% | 0% | 20% | 30% |
| None of the above | 3.1% | 58% | 42% | 27% | 21% | 21% | 32% | 27% | 53% | 20% | 29% | 5% | 10% | 29% | 29% |
| Responses | 703 | 353 | 350 | 94 | 147 | 221 | 241 | 271 | 298 | 134 | 432 | 65 | 31 | 69 | 106 |
| % of electorate | 100% | 46% | 54% | 24% | 24% | 25% | 26% | 29% | 42% | 25% | 49% | 15% | 13% | 8% | 15% |
Q5 How enthusiastic are you about voting in this election?
No Data Found
| Q5 | Total | Gender | Age | Party | Race/Ethnic | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANSWERS | Likely | Men | Women | 18-35 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | Rep | Dem | Ind | WHT | BLK | HIS | OTH | UNK |
| Very | 80.1% | 43% | 57% | 16% | 23% | 30% | 31% | 35% | 43% | 21% | 63% | 9% | 4% | 8% | 16% |
| Mostly | 8.4% | 53% | 47% | 33% | 16% | 23% | 28% | 24% | 49% | 27% | 55% | 9% | 5% | 21% | 11% |
| Somewhat | 6.0% | 60% | 40% | 23% | 15% | 32% | 29% | 25% | 47% | 28% | 55% | 12% | 5% | 12% | 16% |
| Not really | 4.2% | 30% | 70% | 17% | 30% | 18% | 34% | 23% | 55% | 22% | 59% | 7% | 7% | 15% | 11% |
| Not at all | 1.3% | 80% | 20% | 15% | 10% | 38% | 37% | 37% | 39% | 24% | 60% | 0% | 0% | 20% | 20% |
| Responses | 703 | 353 | 350 | 94 | 147 | 221 | 241 | 271 | 298 | 134 | 432 | 65 | 31 | 69 | 106 |
| % of electorate | 100% | 46% | 54% | 24% | 24% | 25% | 26% | 29% | 42% | 25% | 49% | 15% | 13% | 8% | 15% |
Methodology Statement: Gotham Polling & Analytics
The poll was conducted by Gotham Polling & Analytics between October 11 and October 19, 2024, to assess voter preferences in New York’s 4th Congressional District (CD4) ahead of the November general election.
Key Details:
– Sample Size: 734 total respondents, 703 of whom qualified as “likely voters” or had already voted.
– Survey Mode: Text message invitations were sent to respondents.
– Population: The poll targeted registered voters in CD4 who had voted in the last presidential election, drawn from the L2-data.com voter registration database.
– Sampling Method: Respondents were randomly selected from the voter registration database, with efforts to ensure representation across key demographic groups such as age, gender, and party affiliation. Surveys were completed by those who qualified as likely voters or had already voted.
– Weighting: The data were weighted to reflect the demographic and partisan composition of the district, modeled around voter turnout in the 2020 presidential election. The weighting accounted for variables such as age, gender, and party registration. Race and ethnicity were self-identified by respondents but not included in the weighting model.
– Margin of Error: ±3.62% at a 95% confidence interval. This margin applies to the full sample of 734 respondents.
– Survey Completion: Respondents who indicated they were either likely to vote or had already voted were eligible to complete the full survey.