Poll: NYC Mayor 2025 General Election - July - Gotham Polling & Analytics

Gotham Poll: Mamdani Leads in 3-Way Race — with Cuomo and Adams splitting the moderate vote

In a new poll of 1,021 likely voters across New York City, Zohran Mamdani leads decisively in a hypothetical three-way general election — but former Governor Andrew Cuomo’s reentry into the field changes the dynamic, revealing deep fractures in the Democratic electorate.

3-Way Ballot Test:

If the race were held today with Mamdani, Adams, and Sliwa:

Zohran Mamdani (Democratic / WFP) – 47.3%
Eric Adams (Independent) – 28.0%
Curtis Sliwa (Republican) – 12.0%
Unsure – 12.8%

5-Way Ballot Test:

When voters are offered Mamdani, Adams, Cuomo, Sliwa, and Walden:

Zohran Mamdani (Democratic / WFP) – 41.3%
Andrew Cuomo (Independent) – 26.6%
Eric Adams (Independent) – 16.4%
Curtis Sliwa (Republican) – 9.7%
Jim Walden (Independent) – 1.6%
Not Sure – 4.4%

Key Takeaways from NYC Mayoral Survey

Purpose of the Poll: The survey tested how other candidates fare against Zohran Mamdani, with a particular focus on evaluating Mayor Eric Adams’ standing in a crowded race.
Mamdani Leads in a Divided Field: Mamdani leads with a plurality, not a majority, benefiting from a fragmented moderate vote. If both Adams and Andrew Cuomo remain in the race, Mamdani wins comfortably, despite high unfavorables.
Mamdani Ceiling Is Clear: Roughly 57% of voters say they would not vote for Mamdani, aligning closely with the 46% who view his politics as too extreme. Still, unless moderates consolidate, Mamdani’s path remains open.
Curtis Sliwa’s Limited Reach: Sliwa polls below 10% in a five-way race. Even if Cuomo or Adams drops out, Sliwa struggles to break 15%. If moderates consolidate, Republican voters may shift away from Sliwa to block Mamdani.
Cuomo vs. Adams: Cuomo appears stronger overall, particularly among voters aged 50+. He cuts into Adams’ support among Black voters. In contrast, Adams performs best in the Jewish community.

Favorable vs. Unfavorable Ratings:

- Adams: 51% say they would never vote for him.
- Cuomo: Lower “hard no” at 39%.
- Mamdani: 46% rejectability, nearly identical to those calling him too extreme.
- Sliwa: 49% say they would not vote for him under any circumstance.
In a Two-Way Race? Cuomo has the best odds of beating Mamdani one-on-one. Adams might edge him out with Republican voters, but Cuomo has broader crossover appeal.
Walden as a Spoiler: Evan Walden polls at just 1–2%, yet could act as a spoiler siphoning moderate votes—another advantage to Mamdani.
Open Questions Remain: It is unclear whether Adams voters would automatically move to Cuomo if Adams dropped out. Gotham Polling will explore this in a follow-up poll next week.
Policy Issues:
- Crime and affordability top the list of voter concerns.
- Voters are evenly split on Adams’ cooperation with the Trump administration on immigration—but it’s one of the few areas where Adams retains strength.
Voter Participation: Only half of likely voters say they plan to vote in person on Election Day—early and mail voting continue to rise in importance.

Mamdani doesn’t need a majority—he just needs the moderates to stay divided. If Adams and Cuomo both stay in, he wins by default.

Based on the numbers, Cuomo clearly appears to have the stronger path to beating Mamdani—he draws broader support and faces lower rejection than any other candidate in the field. Even so, if Cuomo were no longer in the race, Adams would be likely to pull a substantial portion of Cuomo voters to consolidate a sufficient number of moderate votes to successfully challenge Mamdani.

Q:1 Concern About NYC’s Future: How concerned are you about the direction New York City might take in the next few years?

Answer	Total	Percent
Very concerned	851	83%
Somewhat concerned	146	14%
Not too concerned	19	2%
Not concerned at all	5	1%

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Q:2 Top Priorities for the Next Mayor: Which of the following should be the top priorities for New York’s next mayor? (Select up to 3)

Answer	Total	Percent
Keeping the city safe from crime and disorder	567	56%
Protecting affordability for working and middle-class families	584	57%
Managing the migrant crisis responsibly	213	21%
Avoiding political extremism and keeping the city stable	391	38%
Fixing basic services and cleanliness	367	36%
Preventing new taxes and cutting waste	238	23%
Supporting NYPD, sanitation, and public workers	283	28%
Other	91	9%

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Q:3 Performance Under the Current Mayor: In recent years under Mayor Eric Adams, how would you rate the city's progress on the following areas? (Please select one answer per row)

	Answer	Total	Percent
Overall crime levels	Much better	76	7%
	Somewhat better	227	22%
	About the same	334	33%
	Somewhat worse	76	7%
	Much worse	165	16%
Rebuilding the city’s economy post-COVID	Much better	83	8%
	Somewhat better	228	22%
	About the same	299	29%
	Somewhat worse	83	8%
	Much worse	186	18%
Attracting jobs and investment	Much better	45	4%
	Somewhat better	157	15%
	About the same	390	38%
	Somewhat worse	45	4%
	Much worse	206	20%
Managing city agencies and basic services	Much better	61	6%
	Somewhat better	140	14%
	About the same	323	32%
	Somewhat worse	61	6%
	Much worse	258	25%
Standing up to far-left and far-right political pressure	Much better	94	9%
	Somewhat better	114	11%
	About the same	213	21%
	Somewhat worse	94	9%
	Much worse	389	38%

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Q:4 Candidate Trust on Key Issues: For each of the following, who do you trust most to handle it? (Please select one answer per row)

	Answer	Total	Percent
Keeping NYC safe	Adams	200	20%
	Mamdani	383	38%
	Sliwa	146	14%
	Cuomo	279	27%
	Walden	13	1%
Managing crises and public pressure	Adams	172	17%
	Mamdani	394	39%
	Sliwa	99	10%
	Cuomo	342	34%
	Walden	14	1%
Protecting affordability for working families	Adams	171	17%
	Mamdani	517	51%
	Sliwa	98	10%
	Cuomo	217	21%
	Walden	18	2%
Keeping NYC away from political extremism	Adams	181	18%
	Mamdani	402	39%
	Sliwa	106	10%
	Cuomo	301	30%
	Walden	30	3%
Working with both Democrats and Republicans to get things done	Adams	209	20%
	Mamdani	402	39%
	Sliwa	94	9%
	Cuomo	294	29%
	Walden	22	2%
Leading a large organization or bureaucracy	Adams	164	16%
	Mamdani	360	35%
	Sliwa	81	8%
	Cuomo	397	39%
	Walden	18	2%

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Q:5 Candidate Favorability: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of each of the following individuals?

	Answer	Total	Percent
Eric Adams	Favorable	319	31%
	Unfavorable	702	69%
Zohran Mamdani	Favorable	507	50%
	Unfavorable	514	50%
Curtis Sliwa	Favorable	306	30%
	Unfavorable	715	70%
Andrew Cuomo	Favorable	387	38%
	Unfavorable	634	62%
Jim Walden	Favorable	197	19%
	Unfavorable	824	81%

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Q:6 Awareness of Mamdani: Before today, how much had you heard about Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani?

Answer	Total	Percent
A lot	517	51%
Some	251	25%
Not much	113	11%
Nothing at all	140	14%

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Q:7 Concerns About Mamdani: Which of the following, if any, concern you about Zohran Mamdani? (Select all that apply)

Answer	Total	Percent
None of the above	331	32%
His political views are too extreme	470	46%
Lack of executive experience	561	55%
Support for defunding the police	459	45%
Focus on symbolic or foreign issues, not local problems	366	36%
Would make NYC less safe or stable	445	44%

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Q:8 Perceptions of Cuomo's Candidacy: Some people believe Andrew Cuomo's re-entry into politics shows strength and experience, while others believe it reflects old political habits and unresolved controversies. Which comes closest to your view?

Answer	Total	Percent
Cuomo has valuable experience and proven leadership under pressure	304	30%
Cuomo has real strengths, but also carries baggage — and he’s had his moment. It’s time to move on.	273	27%
Cuomo's record on sexual harassment and nursing home deaths should disqualify him from holding office	403	40%
Not sure	41	4%

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Q:9 Perceptions of Sliwa's Candidacy: Curtis Sliwa is known for his grassroots activism and public safety advocacy. Some believe he brings passion and firsthand experience, while others question his background and temperament. Which comes closest to your view?

			Gender			Party				Age				Ethnicity						Borough
Answer	Total	Percent	Male	Female	Other	Democratic	Republican	Independent	Other	18-34	35-49	50-64	65 or older	White	Black	Hispanic	Asian	Jewish	Other	Manhattan	Brooklyn	Queens	Bronx	Staten Island
Sliwa is a bold voice who understands the real issues facing NYC residents	144	14%	51%	46%	3%	41%	32%	25%	0%	6%	21%	34%	38%	37%	37%	23%	4%	14%	18%	16%	25%	27%	16%	16%
Sliwa raises important issues but may not be prepared to manage a city government or work effectively with the City Council to get things done.	207	20%	45%	54%	1%	60%	13%	26%	0%	12%	16%	27%	45%	23%	23%	18%	7%	18%	7%	20%	30%	25%	17%	8%
Sliwa is not a serious candidate and lacks the leadership skills needed to run NYC	526	51%	41%	58%	1%	80%	2%	16%	0%	13%	33%	25%	29%	29%	29%	13%	9%	22%	6%	27%	37%	20%	14%	2%
Not sure	144	14%	36%	61%	3%	69%	4%	25%	0%	18%	30%	29%	23%	17%	17%	22%	13%	9%	7%	22%	30%	20%	26%	3%

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Q:10 Adams and Immigration: Mayor Eric Adams has called for stronger federal action on the migrant crisis, including coordination with both Republican and Democratic officials. Do you agree with this approach?

			Gender			Party				Age				Ethnicity						Borough
Answer	Total	Percent	Male	Female	Other	Democratic	Republican	Independent	Other	18-34	35-49	50-64	65 or older	White	Black	Hispanic	Asian	Jewish	Other	Manhattan	Brooklyn	Queens	Bronx	Staten Island
Yes, it’s responsible to work with both sides if you want to actually get things done	486	48%	47%	52%	1%	57%	15%	27%	1%	9%	25%	32%	34%	27%	20%	14%	9%	21%	9%	24%	25%	26%	17%	8%
No, NYC should not align with Republican policies on immigration	469	46%	37%	61%	2%	81%	2%	15%	3%	15%	31%	23%	31%	23%	23%	18%	9%	14%	6%	24%	41%	19%	13%	3%
Not sure	66	6%	45%	54%	1%	77%	9%	13%	1%	19%	24%	22%	35%	12%	18%	29%	3%	23%	15%	13%	29%	22%	34%	3%

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Q:11 Stability Preference: Which candidate do you think is most likely to keep NYC stable and functional, and avoid chaos or political extremism?

			Gender			Party				Age				Ethnicity						Borough
Answer	Total	Percent	Male	Female	Other	Democratic	Republican	Independent	Other	18-34	35-49	50-64	65 or older	White	Black	Hispanic	Asian	Jewish	Other	Manhattan	Brooklyn	Queens	Bronx	Staten Island
Eric Adams	189	18%	54%	42%	3%	58%	16%	25%	1%	15%	32%	29%	25%	29%	14%	11%	5%	33%	9%	22%	31%	23%	15%	9%
Zohran Mamdani	384	38%	40%	58%	2%	82%	1%	14%	3%	20%	35%	19%	26%	31%	20%	20%	10%	11%	7%	21%	43%	22%	12%	3%
Curtis Sliwa	83	8%	45%	54%	1%	30%	42%	25%	3%	6%	13%	38%	44%	38%	2%	21%	5%	14%	19%	27%	27%	27%	14%	17%
Andrew Cuomo	276	27%	37%	62%	1%	72%	5%	22%	0%	2%	22%	35%	41%	20%	33%	14%	9%	19%	5%	27%	21%	20%	27%	3%
Jim Walden	18	2%	36%	64%	0%	60%	4%	34%	2%	0%	21%	30%	49%	56%	0%	0%	21%	19%	4%	39%	24%	26%	4%	7%
Not Sure	70	7%	42%	58%	0%	65%	3%	28%	4%	19%	13%	23%	44%	11%	33%	20%	10%	17%	8%	29%	37%	24%	4%	5%

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Q:12 Vote Intention 3-Way: If the general election for Mayor were held today, and the following candidates were on the ballot, who would you vote for?

			Gender			Party				Age				Ethnicity						Borough
Answer	Total	Percent	Male	Female	Other	Democratic	Republican	Independent	Other	18-34	35-49	50-64	65 or older	White	Black	Hispanic	Asian	Jewish	Other	Manhattan	Brooklyn	Queens	Bronx	Staten Island
Eric Adams (Independent)	286	28.0%	31%	25%	2%	60%	13%	27%	1%	10%	28%	32%	30%	25%	14%	13%	9%	33%	6%	27%	22%	24%	21%	6%
Zohran Mamdani (Democratic / WFP)	483	47.3%	40%	59%	0%	83%	1%	14%	3%	18%	34%	19%	28%	29%	25%	17%	10%	12%	7%	22%	41%	21%	13%	2%
Curtis Sliwa (Republican)	122	12.0%	49%	50%	1%	34%	35%	27%	4%	7%	14%	33%	46%	36%	4%	21%	7%	14%	18%	17%	23%	27%	15%	17%
Unsure	130	12.8%	33%	65%	1%	72%	5%	23%	0%	4%	11%	40%	45%	20%	40%	17%	4%	13%	6%	25%	33%	17%	19%	5%

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Q:13 Vote Intention 5-Way: Now imagine the following five candidates are on the ballot. Who would you vote for?

			Gender			Party				Age				Ethnicity						Borough
Answer	Total	Percent	Male	Female	Other	Democratic	Republican	Independent	Other	18-34	35-49	50-64	65 or older	White	Black	Hispanic	Asian	Jewish	Other	Manhattan	Brooklyn	Queens	Bronx	Staten Island
Eric Adams (Independent)	167	16.37%	53%	43%	4%	54%	16%	29%	1%	14%	31%	30%	25%	28%	10%	14%	5%	35%	7%	25%	29%	23%	14%	9%
Zohran Mamdani (Democratic / WFP)	423	41.38%	40%	58%	0%	82%	1%	15%	3%	21%	36%	19%	24%	30%	21%	19%	11%	12%	7%	21%	43%	21%	12%	3%
Curtis Sliwa (Republican)	99	9.66%	49%	50%	1%	30%	39%	26%	5%	8%	11%	39%	41%	36%	5%	18%	5%	14%	22%	15%	25%	29%	12%	19%
Andrew Cuomo (Independent)	272	26.63%	37%	62%	1%	73%	6%	21%	0%	4%	19%	34%	43%	18%	35%	16%	8%	18%	5%	26%	22%	20%	29%	3%
Jim Walden (Independent)	16	1.57%	25%	75%	0%	65%	7%	28%	0%	0%	13%	37%	50%	61%	0%	0%	15%	17%	7%	35%	27%	27%	5%	6%
Not sure	45	4.39%	50%	50%	0%	71%	6%	23%	0%	0%	24%	21%	56%	24%	30%	10%	4%	22%	11%	32%	32%	28%	0%	8%

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Q:14 Rejectability: Which of the following candidates would you not vote for under any circumstances? (Select all that apply)

			Gender			Party				Age				Ethnicity						Borough
Answer	Total	Percent	Male	Female	Other	Democratic	Republican	Independent	Other	18-34	35-49	50-64	65 or older	White	Black	Hispanic	Asian	Jewish	Other	Manhattan	Brooklyn	Queens	Bronx	Staten Island
Eric Adams	519	51%	39%	60%	1%	78%	3%	16%	3%	16%	29%	23%	32%	30%	25%	18%	9%	12%	8%	14%	39%	23%	21%	3%
Zohran Mamdani	467	46%	45%	54%	1%	58%	17%	24%	1%	7%	22%	34%	37%	27%	15%	16%	8%	25%	9%	19%	24%	23%	24%	9%
Curtis Sliwa	504	49%	38%	61%	2%	82%	1%	15%	2%	13%	31%	26%	30%	29%	27%	15%	9%	14%	6%	14%	37%	25%	21%	2%
Andrew Cuomo	398	39%	42%	56%	2%	74%	7%	16%	4%	23%	31%	23%	23%	35%	16%	18%	9%	15%	7%	11%	43%	21%	20%	5%
Jim Walden	325	32%	40%	60%	1%	78%	6%	13%	3%	13%	27%	27%	33%	30%	24%	17%	7%	14%	8%	14%	33%	21%	25%	6%
Not sure	28	3%	30%	68%	2%	66%	4%	30%	0%	15%	27%	28%	29%	11%	56%	0%	7%	19%	7%	33%	28%	14%	19%	6%

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Q:15 Electability: Which of the following candidates do you believe is most likely to actually win the general election?

			Gender			Party				Age				Ethnicity						Borough
Answer	Total	Percent	Male	Female	Other	Democratic	Republican	Independent	Other	18-34	35-49	50-64	65 or older	White	Black	Hispanic	Asian	Jewish	Other	Manhattan	Brooklyn	Queens	Bronx	Staten Island
Eric Adams	197	19%	54%	42%	3%	52%	19%	27%	1%	12%	27%	34%	28%	32%	10%	15%	5%	28%	11%	23%	23%	24%	18%	11%
Zohran Mamdani	477	47%	43%	55%	1%	80%	2%	15%	3%	20%	33%	22%	25%	30%	21%	18%	9%	15%	7%	21%	41%	21%	14%	3%
Curtis Sliwa	38	4%	44%	55%	1%	34%	41%	25%	1%	0%	19%	36%	45%	25%	9%	26%	0%	24%	17%	1%	37%	23%	20%	18%
Andrew Cuomo	178	17%	36%	64%	0%	72%	6%	22%	0%	3%	19%	38%	40%	16%	41%	18%	11%	8%	6%	22%	25%	23%	26%	4%
Jim Walden	6	1%	32%	68%	0%	68%	6%	26%	0%	0%	50%	7%	43%	50%	0%	50%	0%	0%	0%	31%	19%	49%	0%	0%
Not sure	125	12%	29%	70%	1%	62%	11%	26%	1%	7%	21%	18%	54%	25%	21%	5%	11%	28%	10%	39%	28%	21%	8%	5%

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Q:16 Political Leanings: How would you describe your political views?

Answer	Total	Percent
Moderate/Centrist	359	52%
Progressive/Left-Wing	532	35%
Conservative/Right-Wing	129	13%

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Q:17 Preferred Voting Method: How are you planning to vote in the upcoming mayoral election?

Answer	Total	Percent
On Election Day at a polling place	511	50%
During the early voting period	394	39%
By absentee or mail-in ballot	60	6%
I’m not sure yet	52	5%
Other (please specify)	0	0%

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This was a poll of 1021 registered NYC voters, who completed our survey out of 1707 respondents and indicated that they were likely to vote in the mayoral.

Poll was conducted from June 30^th to July 2^nd.

The margin of error is 3.1% at a 95% confidence level, based on the approximately 1.7 to 1.9 million individuals we believe are likely to turn out to vote, according to a 2022 off-year model—not a typical odd-year mayoral model.

Mode of survey was text to web based on mobile phones – Data came from L2

This poll was conducted solely for and by Gotham Polling and Analytics.