In a new poll of 1,021 likely voters across New York City, Zohran Mamdani leads decisively in a hypothetical three-way general election — but former Governor Andrew Cuomo’s reentry into the field changes the dynamic, revealing deep fractures in the Democratic electorate.
If the race were held today with Mamdani, Adams, and Sliwa:
When voters are offered Mamdani, Adams, Cuomo, Sliwa, and Walden:
Favorable vs. Unfavorable Ratings:
Mamdani doesn’t need a majority—he just needs the moderates to stay divided. If Adams and Cuomo both stay in, he wins by default.
Based on the numbers, Cuomo clearly appears to have the stronger path to beating Mamdani—he draws broader support and faces lower rejection than any other candidate in the field. Even so, if Cuomo were no longer in the race, Adams would be likely to pull a substantial portion of Cuomo voters to consolidate a sufficient number of moderate votes to successfully challenge Mamdani.
Answer | Total | Percent |
---|---|---|
Very concerned | 851 | 83% |
Somewhat concerned | 146 | 14% |
Not too concerned | 19 | 2% |
Not concerned at all | 5 | 1% |
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Answer | Total | Percent |
---|---|---|
Keeping the city safe from crime and disorder | 567 | 56% |
Protecting affordability for working and middle-class families | 584 | 57% |
Managing the migrant crisis responsibly | 213 | 21% |
Avoiding political extremism and keeping the city stable | 391 | 38% |
Fixing basic services and cleanliness | 367 | 36% |
Preventing new taxes and cutting waste | 238 | 23% |
Supporting NYPD, sanitation, and public workers | 283 | 28% |
Other | 91 | 9% |
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Answer | Total | Percent | |
---|---|---|---|
Overall crime levels | Much better | 76 | 7% |
Somewhat better | 227 | 22% | |
About the same | 334 | 33% | |
Somewhat worse | 76 | 7% | |
Much worse | 165 | 16% | |
Rebuilding the city’s economy post-COVID | Much better | 83 | 8% |
Somewhat better | 228 | 22% | |
About the same | 299 | 29% | |
Somewhat worse | 83 | 8% | |
Much worse | 186 | 18% | |
Attracting jobs and investment | Much better | 45 | 4% |
Somewhat better | 157 | 15% | |
About the same | 390 | 38% | |
Somewhat worse | 45 | 4% | |
Much worse | 206 | 20% | |
Managing city agencies and basic services | Much better | 61 | 6% |
Somewhat better | 140 | 14% | |
About the same | 323 | 32% | |
Somewhat worse | 61 | 6% | |
Much worse | 258 | 25% | |
Standing up to far-left and far-right political pressure | Much better | 94 | 9% |
Somewhat better | 114 | 11% | |
About the same | 213 | 21% | |
Somewhat worse | 94 | 9% | |
Much worse | 389 | 38% |
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Answer | Total | Percent | |
---|---|---|---|
Keeping NYC safe | Adams | 200 | 20% |
Mamdani | 383 | 38% | |
Sliwa | 146 | 14% | |
Cuomo | 279 | 27% | |
Walden | 13 | 1% | |
Managing crises and public pressure | Adams | 172 | 17% |
Mamdani | 394 | 39% | |
Sliwa | 99 | 10% | |
Cuomo | 342 | 34% | |
Walden | 14 | 1% | |
Protecting affordability for working families | Adams | 171 | 17% |
Mamdani | 517 | 51% | |
Sliwa | 98 | 10% | |
Cuomo | 217 | 21% | |
Walden | 18 | 2% | |
Keeping NYC away from political extremism | Adams | 181 | 18% |
Mamdani | 402 | 39% | |
Sliwa | 106 | 10% | |
Cuomo | 301 | 30% | |
Walden | 30 | 3% | |
Working with both Democrats and Republicans to get things done | Adams | 209 | 20% |
Mamdani | 402 | 39% | |
Sliwa | 94 | 9% | |
Cuomo | 294 | 29% | |
Walden | 22 | 2% | |
Leading a large organization or bureaucracy | Adams | 164 | 16% |
Mamdani | 360 | 35% | |
Sliwa | 81 | 8% | |
Cuomo | 397 | 39% | |
Walden | 18 | 2% |
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Answer | Total | Percent | |
---|---|---|---|
Eric Adams | Favorable | 319 | 31% |
Unfavorable | 702 | 69% | |
Zohran Mamdani | Favorable | 507 | 50% |
Unfavorable | 514 | 50% | |
Curtis Sliwa | Favorable | 306 | 30% |
Unfavorable | 715 | 70% | |
Andrew Cuomo | Favorable | 387 | 38% |
Unfavorable | 634 | 62% | |
Jim Walden | Favorable | 197 | 19% |
Unfavorable | 824 | 81% |
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Answer | Total | Percent |
---|---|---|
A lot | 517 | 51% |
Some | 251 | 25% |
Not much | 113 | 11% |
Nothing at all | 140 | 14% |
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Answer | Total | Percent |
---|---|---|
None of the above | 331 | 32% |
His political views are too extreme | 470 | 46% |
Lack of executive experience | 561 | 55% |
Support for defunding the police | 459 | 45% |
Focus on symbolic or foreign issues, not local problems | 366 | 36% |
Would make NYC less safe or stable | 445 | 44% |
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Answer | Total | Percent |
---|---|---|
Cuomo has valuable experience and proven leadership under pressure | 304 | 30% |
Cuomo has real strengths, but also carries baggage — and he’s had his moment. It’s time to move on. | 273 | 27% |
Cuomo's record on sexual harassment and nursing home deaths should disqualify him from holding office | 403 | 40% |
Not sure | 41 | 4% |
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Gender | Party | Age | Ethnicity | Borough | ||||||||||||||||||||
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Answer | Total | Percent | Male | Female | Other | Democratic | Republican | Independent | Other | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65 or older | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian | Jewish | Other | Manhattan | Brooklyn | Queens | Bronx | Staten Island |
Sliwa is a bold voice who understands the real issues facing NYC residents | 144 | 14% | 51% | 46% | 3% | 41% | 32% | 25% | 0% | 6% | 21% | 34% | 38% | 37% | 37% | 23% | 4% | 14% | 18% | 16% | 25% | 27% | 16% | 16% |
Sliwa raises important issues but may not be prepared to manage a city government or work effectively with the City Council to get things done. | 207 | 20% | 45% | 54% | 1% | 60% | 13% | 26% | 0% | 12% | 16% | 27% | 45% | 23% | 23% | 18% | 7% | 18% | 7% | 20% | 30% | 25% | 17% | 8% |
Sliwa is not a serious candidate and lacks the leadership skills needed to run NYC | 526 | 51% | 41% | 58% | 1% | 80% | 2% | 16% | 0% | 13% | 33% | 25% | 29% | 29% | 29% | 13% | 9% | 22% | 6% | 27% | 37% | 20% | 14% | 2% |
Not sure | 144 | 14% | 36% | 61% | 3% | 69% | 4% | 25% | 0% | 18% | 30% | 29% | 23% | 17% | 17% | 22% | 13% | 9% | 7% | 22% | 30% | 20% | 26% | 3% |
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Gender | Party | Age | Ethnicity | Borough | ||||||||||||||||||||
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Answer | Total | Percent | Male | Female | Other | Democratic | Republican | Independent | Other | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65 or older | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian | Jewish | Other | Manhattan | Brooklyn | Queens | Bronx | Staten Island |
Yes, it’s responsible to work with both sides if you want to actually get things done | 486 | 48% | 47% | 52% | 1% | 57% | 15% | 27% | 1% | 9% | 25% | 32% | 34% | 27% | 20% | 14% | 9% | 21% | 9% | 24% | 25% | 26% | 17% | 8% |
No, NYC should not align with Republican policies on immigration | 469 | 46% | 37% | 61% | 2% | 81% | 2% | 15% | 3% | 15% | 31% | 23% | 31% | 23% | 23% | 18% | 9% | 14% | 6% | 24% | 41% | 19% | 13% | 3% |
Not sure | 66 | 6% | 45% | 54% | 1% | 77% | 9% | 13% | 1% | 19% | 24% | 22% | 35% | 12% | 18% | 29% | 3% | 23% | 15% | 13% | 29% | 22% | 34% | 3% |
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Gender | Party | Age | Ethnicity | Borough | ||||||||||||||||||||
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Answer | Total | Percent | Male | Female | Other | Democratic | Republican | Independent | Other | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65 or older | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian | Jewish | Other | Manhattan | Brooklyn | Queens | Bronx | Staten Island |
Eric Adams | 189 | 18% | 54% | 42% | 3% | 58% | 16% | 25% | 1% | 15% | 32% | 29% | 25% | 29% | 14% | 11% | 5% | 33% | 9% | 22% | 31% | 23% | 15% | 9% |
Zohran Mamdani | 384 | 38% | 40% | 58% | 2% | 82% | 1% | 14% | 3% | 20% | 35% | 19% | 26% | 31% | 20% | 20% | 10% | 11% | 7% | 21% | 43% | 22% | 12% | 3% |
Curtis Sliwa | 83 | 8% | 45% | 54% | 1% | 30% | 42% | 25% | 3% | 6% | 13% | 38% | 44% | 38% | 2% | 21% | 5% | 14% | 19% | 27% | 27% | 27% | 14% | 17% |
Andrew Cuomo | 276 | 27% | 37% | 62% | 1% | 72% | 5% | 22% | 0% | 2% | 22% | 35% | 41% | 20% | 33% | 14% | 9% | 19% | 5% | 27% | 21% | 20% | 27% | 3% |
Jim Walden | 18 | 2% | 36% | 64% | 0% | 60% | 4% | 34% | 2% | 0% | 21% | 30% | 49% | 56% | 0% | 0% | 21% | 19% | 4% | 39% | 24% | 26% | 4% | 7% |
Not Sure | 70 | 7% | 42% | 58% | 0% | 65% | 3% | 28% | 4% | 19% | 13% | 23% | 44% | 11% | 33% | 20% | 10% | 17% | 8% | 29% | 37% | 24% | 4% | 5% |
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Gender | Party | Age | Ethnicity | Borough | ||||||||||||||||||||
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Answer | Total | Percent | Male | Female | Other | Democratic | Republican | Independent | Other | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65 or older | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian | Jewish | Other | Manhattan | Brooklyn | Queens | Bronx | Staten Island |
Eric Adams (Independent) | 286 | 28.0% | 31% | 25% | 2% | 60% | 13% | 27% | 1% | 10% | 28% | 32% | 30% | 25% | 14% | 13% | 9% | 33% | 6% | 27% | 22% | 24% | 21% | 6% |
Zohran Mamdani (Democratic / WFP) | 483 | 47.3% | 40% | 59% | 0% | 83% | 1% | 14% | 3% | 18% | 34% | 19% | 28% | 29% | 25% | 17% | 10% | 12% | 7% | 22% | 41% | 21% | 13% | 2% |
Curtis Sliwa (Republican) | 122 | 12.0% | 49% | 50% | 1% | 34% | 35% | 27% | 4% | 7% | 14% | 33% | 46% | 36% | 4% | 21% | 7% | 14% | 18% | 17% | 23% | 27% | 15% | 17% |
Unsure | 130 | 12.8% | 33% | 65% | 1% | 72% | 5% | 23% | 0% | 4% | 11% | 40% | 45% | 20% | 40% | 17% | 4% | 13% | 6% | 25% | 33% | 17% | 19% | 5% |
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Gender | Party | Age | Ethnicity | Borough | ||||||||||||||||||||
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Answer | Total | Percent | Male | Female | Other | Democratic | Republican | Independent | Other | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65 or older | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian | Jewish | Other | Manhattan | Brooklyn | Queens | Bronx | Staten Island |
Eric Adams (Independent) | 167 | 16.37% | 53% | 43% | 4% | 54% | 16% | 29% | 1% | 14% | 31% | 30% | 25% | 28% | 10% | 14% | 5% | 35% | 7% | 25% | 29% | 23% | 14% | 9% |
Zohran Mamdani (Democratic / WFP) | 423 | 41.38% | 40% | 58% | 0% | 82% | 1% | 15% | 3% | 21% | 36% | 19% | 24% | 30% | 21% | 19% | 11% | 12% | 7% | 21% | 43% | 21% | 12% | 3% |
Curtis Sliwa (Republican) | 99 | 9.66% | 49% | 50% | 1% | 30% | 39% | 26% | 5% | 8% | 11% | 39% | 41% | 36% | 5% | 18% | 5% | 14% | 22% | 15% | 25% | 29% | 12% | 19% |
Andrew Cuomo (Independent) | 272 | 26.63% | 37% | 62% | 1% | 73% | 6% | 21% | 0% | 4% | 19% | 34% | 43% | 18% | 35% | 16% | 8% | 18% | 5% | 26% | 22% | 20% | 29% | 3% |
Jim Walden (Independent) | 16 | 1.57% | 25% | 75% | 0% | 65% | 7% | 28% | 0% | 0% | 13% | 37% | 50% | 61% | 0% | 0% | 15% | 17% | 7% | 35% | 27% | 27% | 5% | 6% |
Not sure | 45 | 4.39% | 50% | 50% | 0% | 71% | 6% | 23% | 0% | 0% | 24% | 21% | 56% | 24% | 30% | 10% | 4% | 22% | 11% | 32% | 32% | 28% | 0% | 8% |
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Gender | Party | Age | Ethnicity | Borough | ||||||||||||||||||||
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Answer | Total | Percent | Male | Female | Other | Democratic | Republican | Independent | Other | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65 or older | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian | Jewish | Other | Manhattan | Brooklyn | Queens | Bronx | Staten Island |
Eric Adams | 519 | 51% | 39% | 60% | 1% | 78% | 3% | 16% | 3% | 16% | 29% | 23% | 32% | 30% | 25% | 18% | 9% | 12% | 8% | 14% | 39% | 23% | 21% | 3% |
Zohran Mamdani | 467 | 46% | 45% | 54% | 1% | 58% | 17% | 24% | 1% | 7% | 22% | 34% | 37% | 27% | 15% | 16% | 8% | 25% | 9% | 19% | 24% | 23% | 24% | 9% |
Curtis Sliwa | 504 | 49% | 38% | 61% | 2% | 82% | 1% | 15% | 2% | 13% | 31% | 26% | 30% | 29% | 27% | 15% | 9% | 14% | 6% | 14% | 37% | 25% | 21% | 2% |
Andrew Cuomo | 398 | 39% | 42% | 56% | 2% | 74% | 7% | 16% | 4% | 23% | 31% | 23% | 23% | 35% | 16% | 18% | 9% | 15% | 7% | 11% | 43% | 21% | 20% | 5% |
Jim Walden | 325 | 32% | 40% | 60% | 1% | 78% | 6% | 13% | 3% | 13% | 27% | 27% | 33% | 30% | 24% | 17% | 7% | 14% | 8% | 14% | 33% | 21% | 25% | 6% |
Not sure | 28 | 3% | 30% | 68% | 2% | 66% | 4% | 30% | 0% | 15% | 27% | 28% | 29% | 11% | 56% | 0% | 7% | 19% | 7% | 33% | 28% | 14% | 19% | 6% |
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Gender | Party | Age | Ethnicity | Borough | ||||||||||||||||||||
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Answer | Total | Percent | Male | Female | Other | Democratic | Republican | Independent | Other | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65 or older | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian | Jewish | Other | Manhattan | Brooklyn | Queens | Bronx | Staten Island |
Eric Adams | 197 | 19% | 54% | 42% | 3% | 52% | 19% | 27% | 1% | 12% | 27% | 34% | 28% | 32% | 10% | 15% | 5% | 28% | 11% | 23% | 23% | 24% | 18% | 11% |
Zohran Mamdani | 477 | 47% | 43% | 55% | 1% | 80% | 2% | 15% | 3% | 20% | 33% | 22% | 25% | 30% | 21% | 18% | 9% | 15% | 7% | 21% | 41% | 21% | 14% | 3% |
Curtis Sliwa | 38 | 4% | 44% | 55% | 1% | 34% | 41% | 25% | 1% | 0% | 19% | 36% | 45% | 25% | 9% | 26% | 0% | 24% | 17% | 1% | 37% | 23% | 20% | 18% |
Andrew Cuomo | 178 | 17% | 36% | 64% | 0% | 72% | 6% | 22% | 0% | 3% | 19% | 38% | 40% | 16% | 41% | 18% | 11% | 8% | 6% | 22% | 25% | 23% | 26% | 4% |
Jim Walden | 6 | 1% | 32% | 68% | 0% | 68% | 6% | 26% | 0% | 0% | 50% | 7% | 43% | 50% | 0% | 50% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 31% | 19% | 49% | 0% | 0% |
Not sure | 125 | 12% | 29% | 70% | 1% | 62% | 11% | 26% | 1% | 7% | 21% | 18% | 54% | 25% | 21% | 5% | 11% | 28% | 10% | 39% | 28% | 21% | 8% | 5% |
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Answer | Total | Percent |
---|---|---|
Progressive/Left-Wing | 532 | 52% |
Moderate/Centrist | 359 | 35% |
Conservative/Right-Wing | 129 | 13% |
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Answer | Total | Percent |
---|---|---|
On Election Day at a polling place | 511 | 50% |
During the early voting period | 394 | 39% |
By absentee or mail-in ballot | 60 | 6% |
I’m not sure yet | 52 | 5% |
Other (please specify) | 0 | 0% |
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This was a poll of 1021 registered NYC voters, who completed our survey out of 1707 respondents and indicated that they were likely to vote in the mayoral.
Poll was conducted from June 30th to July 2nd.
The margin of error is 3.1% at a 95% confidence level, based on the approximately 1.7 to 1.9 million individuals we believe are likely to turn out to vote, according to a 2022 off-year model—not a typical odd-year mayoral model.
Mode of survey was text to web based on mobile phones – Data came from L2
This poll was conducted solely for and by Gotham Polling and Analytics.