Categories: Results

Poll: NYC Mayor 2025 General Election – July

Gotham Poll: Mamdani Leads in 3-Way Race — with Cuomo and Adams splitting the moderate vote

In a new poll of 1,021 likely voters across New York City, Zohran Mamdani leads decisively in a hypothetical three-way general election — but former Governor Andrew Cuomo’s reentry into the field changes the dynamic, revealing deep fractures in the Democratic electorate.

3-Way Ballot Test:

If the race were held today with Mamdani, Adams, and Sliwa:

  • Zohran Mamdani (Democratic / WFP) – 47.3%
  • Eric Adams (Independent) – 28.0%
  • Curtis Sliwa (Republican) – 12.0%
  • Unsure – 12.8%

 

5-Way Ballot Test:

When voters are offered Mamdani, Adams, Cuomo, Sliwa, and Walden:

  • Zohran Mamdani (Democratic / WFP) – 41.3%
  • Andrew Cuomo (Independent) – 26.6%
  • Eric Adams (Independent) – 16.4%
  • Curtis Sliwa (Republican) – 9.7%
  • Jim Walden (Independent) – 1.6%
  • Not Sure – 4.4%

Key Takeaways from NYC Mayoral Survey

  • Purpose of the Poll: The survey tested how other candidates fare against Zohran Mamdani, with a particular focus on evaluating Mayor Eric Adams’ standing in a crowded race.
  • Mamdani Leads in a Divided Field: Mamdani leads with a plurality, not a majority, benefiting from a fragmented moderate vote. If both Adams and Andrew Cuomo remain in the race, Mamdani wins comfortably, despite high unfavorables.
  • Mamdani Ceiling Is Clear: Roughly 57% of voters say they would not vote for Mamdani, aligning closely with the 46% who view his politics as too extreme. Still, unless moderates consolidate, Mamdani’s path remains open.
  • Curtis Sliwa’s Limited Reach: Sliwa polls below 10% in a five-way race. Even if Cuomo or Adams drops out, Sliwa struggles to break 15%. If moderates consolidate, Republican voters may shift away from Sliwa to block Mamdani.
  • Cuomo vs. Adams: Cuomo appears stronger overall, particularly among voters aged 50+. He cuts into Adams’ support among Black voters. In contrast, Adams performs best in the Jewish community.

Favorable vs. Unfavorable Ratings:

    • Adams: 51% say they would never vote for him.
    • Cuomo: Lower “hard no” at 39%.
    • Mamdani: 46% rejectability, nearly identical to those calling him too extreme.
    • Sliwa: 49% say they would not vote for him under any circumstance.
  • In a Two-Way Race? Cuomo has the best odds of beating Mamdani one-on-one. Adams might edge him out with Republican voters, but Cuomo has broader crossover appeal.
  • Walden as a Spoiler: Evan Walden polls at just 1–2%, yet could act as a spoiler siphoning moderate votes—another advantage to Mamdani.
  • Open Questions Remain: It is unclear whether Adams voters would automatically move to Cuomo if Adams dropped out. Gotham Polling will explore this in a follow-up poll next week.
  • Policy Issues:
    • Crime and affordability top the list of voter concerns.
    • Voters are evenly split on Adams’ cooperation with the Trump administration on immigration—but it’s one of the few areas where Adams retains strength.
  • Voter Participation: Only half of likely voters say they plan to vote in person on Election Day—early and mail voting continue to rise in importance.

Mamdani doesn’t need a majority—he just needs the moderates to stay divided. If Adams and Cuomo both stay in, he wins by default.

Based on the numbers, Cuomo clearly appears to have the stronger path to beating Mamdani—he draws broader support and faces lower rejection than any other candidate in the field. Even so, if Cuomo were no longer in the race, Adams would be likely to pull a substantial portion of Cuomo voters to consolidate a sufficient number of moderate votes to successfully challenge Mamdani.

Q:1 Concern About NYC’s Future: How concerned are you about the direction New York City might take in the next few years?

AnswerTotalPercent
Very concerned85183%
Somewhat concerned14614%
Not too concerned192%
Not concerned at all51%

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The Data is Not Available

Q:2 Top Priorities for the Next Mayor: Which of the following should be the top priorities for New York’s next mayor? (Select up to 3)

AnswerTotalPercent
Keeping the city safe from crime and disorder56756%
Protecting affordability for working and middle-class families58457%
Managing the migrant crisis responsibly21321%
Avoiding political extremism and keeping the city stable39138%
Fixing basic services and cleanliness36736%
Preventing new taxes and cutting waste23823%
Supporting NYPD, sanitation, and public workers28328%
Other919%

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Q:3 Performance Under the Current Mayor: In recent years under Mayor Eric Adams, how would you rate the city's progress on the following areas? (Please select one answer per row)

AnswerTotalPercent
Overall crime levelsMuch better767%
Somewhat better22722%
About the same33433%
Somewhat worse767%
Much worse16516%
Rebuilding the city’s economy post-COVIDMuch better838%
Somewhat better22822%
About the same29929%
Somewhat worse838%
Much worse18618%
Attracting jobs and investmentMuch better454%
Somewhat better15715%
About the same39038%
Somewhat worse454%
Much worse20620%
Managing city agencies and basic servicesMuch better616%
Somewhat better14014%
About the same32332%
Somewhat worse616%
Much worse25825%
Standing up to far-left and far-right political pressureMuch better949%
Somewhat better11411%
About the same21321%
Somewhat worse949%
Much worse38938%

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Q:4 Candidate Trust on Key Issues: For each of the following, who do you trust most to handle it? (Please select one answer per row)

AnswerTotalPercent
Keeping NYC safeAdams20020%
Mamdani38338%
Sliwa14614%
Cuomo27927%
Walden131%
Managing crises and public pressureAdams17217%
Mamdani39439%
Sliwa9910%
Cuomo34234%
Walden141%
Protecting affordability for working familiesAdams17117%
Mamdani51751%
Sliwa9810%
Cuomo21721%
Walden182%
Keeping NYC away from political extremismAdams18118%
Mamdani40239%
Sliwa10610%
Cuomo30130%
Walden303%
Working with both Democrats and Republicans to get things doneAdams20920%
Mamdani40239%
Sliwa949%
Cuomo29429%
Walden222%
Leading a large organization or bureaucracyAdams16416%
Mamdani36035%
Sliwa818%
Cuomo39739%
Walden182%

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The Data is Not Available

Q:5 Candidate Favorability: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of each of the following individuals?

AnswerTotalPercent
Eric AdamsFavorable31931%
Unfavorable70269%
Zohran MamdaniFavorable50750%
Unfavorable51450%
Curtis SliwaFavorable30630%
Unfavorable71570%
Andrew CuomoFavorable38738%
Unfavorable63462%
Jim WaldenFavorable19719%
Unfavorable82481%

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The Data is Not Available

Q:6 Awareness of Mamdani: Before today, how much had you heard about Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani?

AnswerTotalPercent
A lot51751%
Some25125%
Not much11311%
Nothing at all14014%

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Q:7 Concerns About Mamdani: Which of the following, if any, concern you about Zohran Mamdani? (Select all that apply)

AnswerTotalPercent
None of the above33132%
His political views are too extreme47046%
Lack of executive experience56155%
Support for defunding the police45945%
Focus on symbolic or foreign issues, not local problems36636%
Would make NYC less safe or stable44544%

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Q:8 Perceptions of Cuomo's Candidacy: Some people believe Andrew Cuomo's re-entry into politics shows strength and experience, while others believe it reflects old political habits and unresolved controversies. Which comes closest to your view?

AnswerTotalPercent
Cuomo has valuable experience and proven leadership under pressure30430%
Cuomo has real strengths, but also carries baggage — and he’s had his moment. It’s time to move on.27327%
Cuomo's record on sexual harassment and nursing home deaths should disqualify him from holding office40340%
Not sure414%

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Q:9 Perceptions of Sliwa's Candidacy: Curtis Sliwa is known for his grassroots activism and public safety advocacy. Some believe he brings passion and firsthand experience, while others question his background and temperament. Which comes closest to your view?

GenderPartyAgeEthnicityBorough
AnswerTotalPercentMaleFemaleOtherDemocraticRepublicanIndependentOther18-3435-4950-6465 or olderWhiteBlackHispanicAsianJewishOtherManhattanBrooklynQueensBronxStaten Island
Sliwa is a bold voice who understands the real issues facing NYC residents14414%51%46%3%41%32%25%0%6%21%34%38%37%37%23%4%14%18%16%25%27%16%16%
Sliwa raises important issues but may not be prepared to manage a city government or work effectively with the City Council to get things done.20720%45%54%1%60%13%26%0%12%16%27%45%23%23%18%7%18%7%20%30%25%17%8%
Sliwa is not a serious candidate and lacks the leadership skills needed to run NYC52651%41%58%1%80%2%16%0%13%33%25%29%29%29%13%9%22%6%27%37%20%14%2%
Not sure14414%36%61%3%69%4%25%0%18%30%29%23%17%17%22%13%9%7%22%30%20%26%3%

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Q:10 Adams and Immigration: Mayor Eric Adams has called for stronger federal action on the migrant crisis, including coordination with both Republican and Democratic officials. Do you agree with this approach?

GenderPartyAgeEthnicityBorough
AnswerTotalPercentMaleFemaleOtherDemocraticRepublicanIndependentOther18-3435-4950-6465 or olderWhiteBlackHispanicAsianJewishOtherManhattanBrooklynQueensBronxStaten Island
Yes, it’s responsible to work with both sides if you want to actually get things done48648%47%52%1%57%15%27%1%9%25%32%34%27%20%14%9%21%9%24%25%26%17%8%
No, NYC should not align with Republican policies on immigration46946%37%61%2%81%2%15%3%15%31%23%31%23%23%18%9%14%6%24%41%19%13%3%
Not sure666%45%54%1%77%9%13%1%19%24%22%35%12%18%29%3%23%15%13%29%22%34%3%

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Q:11 Stability Preference: Which candidate do you think is most likely to keep NYC stable and functional, and avoid chaos or political extremism?

GenderPartyAgeEthnicityBorough
AnswerTotalPercentMaleFemaleOtherDemocraticRepublicanIndependentOther18-3435-4950-6465 or olderWhiteBlackHispanicAsianJewishOtherManhattanBrooklynQueensBronxStaten Island
Eric Adams18918%54%42%3%58%16%25%1%15%32%29%25%29%14%11%5%33%9%22%31%23%15%9%
Zohran Mamdani38438%40%58%2%82%1%14%3%20%35%19%26%31%20%20%10%11%7%21%43%22%12%3%
Curtis Sliwa838%45%54%1%30%42%25%3%6%13%38%44%38%2%21%5%14%19%27%27%27%14%17%
Andrew Cuomo27627%37%62%1%72%5%22%0%2%22%35%41%20%33%14%9%19%5%27%21%20%27%3%
Jim Walden182%36%64%0%60%4%34%2%0%21%30%49%56%0%0%21%19%4%39%24%26%4%7%
Not Sure707%42%58%0%65%3%28%4%19%13%23%44%11%33%20%10%17%8%29%37%24%4%5%

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The Data is Not Available

Q:12 Vote Intention 3-Way: If the general election for Mayor were held today, and the following candidates were on the ballot, who would you vote for?

GenderPartyAgeEthnicityBorough
AnswerTotalPercentMaleFemaleOtherDemocraticRepublicanIndependentOther18-3435-4950-6465 or olderWhiteBlackHispanicAsianJewishOtherManhattanBrooklynQueensBronxStaten Island
Eric Adams (Independent)28628.0%31%25%2%60%13%27%1%10%28%32%30%25%14%13%9%33%6%27%22%24%21%6%
Zohran Mamdani (Democratic / WFP)48347.3%40%59%0%83%1%14%3%18%34%19%28%29%25%17%10%12%7%22%41%21%13%2%
Curtis Sliwa (Republican)12212.0%49%50%1%34%35%27%4%7%14%33%46%36%4%21%7%14%18%17%23%27%15%17%
Unsure13012.8%33%65%1%72%5%23%0%4%11%40%45%20%40%17%4%13%6%25%33%17%19%5%

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The Data is Not Available

Q:13 Vote Intention 5-Way: Now imagine the following five candidates are on the ballot. Who would you vote for?

GenderPartyAgeEthnicityBorough
AnswerTotalPercentMaleFemaleOtherDemocraticRepublicanIndependentOther18-3435-4950-6465 or olderWhiteBlackHispanicAsianJewishOtherManhattanBrooklynQueensBronxStaten Island
Eric Adams (Independent)16716.37%53%43%4%54%16%29%1%14%31%30%25%28%10%14%5%35%7%25%29%23%14%9%
Zohran Mamdani (Democratic / WFP)42341.38%40%58%0%82%1%15%3%21%36%19%24%30%21%19%11%12%7%21%43%21%12%3%
Curtis Sliwa (Republican)999.66%49%50%1%30%39%26%5%8%11%39%41%36%5%18%5%14%22%15%25%29%12%19%
Andrew Cuomo (Independent)27226.63%37%62%1%73%6%21%0%4%19%34%43%18%35%16%8%18%5%26%22%20%29%3%
Jim Walden (Independent)161.57%25%75%0%65%7%28%0%0%13%37%50%61%0%0%15%17%7%35%27%27%5%6%
Not sure454.39%50%50%0%71%6%23%0%0%24%21%56%24%30%10%4%22%11%32%32%28%0%8%

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The Data is Not Available

Q:14 Rejectability: Which of the following candidates would you not vote for under any circumstances? (Select all that apply)

GenderPartyAgeEthnicityBorough
AnswerTotalPercentMaleFemaleOtherDemocraticRepublicanIndependentOther18-3435-4950-6465 or olderWhiteBlackHispanicAsianJewishOtherManhattanBrooklynQueensBronxStaten Island
Eric Adams51951%39%60%1%78%3%16%3%16%29%23%32%30%25%18%9%12%8%14%39%23%21%3%
Zohran Mamdani46746%45%54%1%58%17%24%1%7%22%34%37%27%15%16%8%25%9%19%24%23%24%9%
Curtis Sliwa50449%38%61%2%82%1%15%2%13%31%26%30%29%27%15%9%14%6%14%37%25%21%2%
Andrew Cuomo39839%42%56%2%74%7%16%4%23%31%23%23%35%16%18%9%15%7%11%43%21%20%5%
Jim Walden32532%40%60%1%78%6%13%3%13%27%27%33%30%24%17%7%14%8%14%33%21%25%6%
Not sure283%30%68%2%66%4%30%0%15%27%28%29%11%56%0%7%19%7%33%28%14%19%6%

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The Data is Not Available

Q:15 Electability: Which of the following candidates do you believe is most likely to actually win the general election?

GenderPartyAgeEthnicityBorough
AnswerTotalPercentMaleFemaleOtherDemocraticRepublicanIndependentOther18-3435-4950-6465 or olderWhiteBlackHispanicAsianJewishOtherManhattanBrooklynQueensBronxStaten Island
Eric Adams19719%54%42%3%52%19%27%1%12%27%34%28%32%10%15%5%28%11%23%23%24%18%11%
Zohran Mamdani47747%43%55%1%80%2%15%3%20%33%22%25%30%21%18%9%15%7%21%41%21%14%3%
Curtis Sliwa384%44%55%1%34%41%25%1%0%19%36%45%25%9%26%0%24%17%1%37%23%20%18%
Andrew Cuomo17817%36%64%0%72%6%22%0%3%19%38%40%16%41%18%11%8%6%22%25%23%26%4%
Jim Walden61%32%68%0%68%6%26%0%0%50%7%43%50%0%50%0%0%0%31%19%49%0%0%
Not sure12512%29%70%1%62%11%26%1%7%21%18%54%25%21%5%11%28%10%39%28%21%8%5%

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The Data is Not Available

Q:16 Political Leanings: How would you describe your political views?

AnswerTotalPercent
Moderate/Centrist35952%
Progressive/Left-Wing53235%
Conservative/Right-Wing12913%

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The Data is Not Available

Q:17 Preferred Voting Method: How are you planning to vote in the upcoming mayoral election?

AnswerTotalPercent
On Election Day at a polling place51150%
During the early voting period39439%
By absentee or mail-in ballot606%
I’m not sure yet525%
Other (please specify)00%

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The Data is Not Available

This was a poll of 1021 registered NYC voters, who completed our survey out of 1707 respondents and indicated that they were likely to vote in the mayoral.

Poll was conducted from June 30th to July 2nd.

The margin of error is 3.1% at a 95% confidence level, based on the approximately 1.7 to 1.9 million individuals we believe are likely to turn out to vote, according to a 2022 off-year model—not a typical odd-year mayoral model.

Mode of survey was text to web based on mobile phones – Data came from L2

This poll was conducted solely for and by Gotham Polling and Analytics.

Masab

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3 weeks ago

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