Categories: Results

Poll: Gotham AARP NYC Mayor Aug 2025

Poll: Gotham AARP NYC Mayor General Election 2025 — August

NYC Mayoral Election 2025 – August Poll Results

A new AARP / Gotham Polling survey of likely New York City voters shows Assemblymember Zohran Mamdani leading the crowded field for mayor with 42% support. Former Governor Andrew Cuomo follows with 23%, Curtis Sliwa with 17%, Mayor Eric Adams with 9%, and a combined 9% either undecided or preferring another candidate.

While Mamdani holds a clear lead, the race remains shaped by voter uncertainty and candidate overlap. More than one in four voters say they are undecided in certain match-ups, leaving room for shifts as the field evolves.

To test the dynamics of a fragmented race, the survey modeled six different scenarios in which one or more of the top contenders were removed from the ballot. In every case, Mamdani remained ahead — but the margins varied significantly depending on which candidates dropped out:

  • In multi-candidate matchups, Mamdani’s support holds firm around 40–42%.

  • Cuomo consistently emerges as the strongest challenger, consolidating more of the moderate and older voter base when others exit.

  • Even in a hypothetical one-on-one with Mamdani, Cuomo trails — though a large share of voters remain undecided, suggesting fluidity.

  • Sliwa and Adams attract narrower but distinct coalitions, with Sliwa drawing more Republican and outer-borough support, and Adams retaining core Democratic and Black voter backing.

The six scenarios highlight a central tension of the race: Mamdani may not have a ceiling to reach a true majority, but as long as the moderate vote remains split, his path to victory is wide open.

For full pdfs and spreadsheets https://www.aarp.org/pri/topics/voter-research/politics/new-york-city-mayoral-poll-2025/

Scenario 1: Cuomo drops outWeighted %
Zohran Mamdani48%
Eric Adams17%
Curtis Sliwa21%
Jim Walden2%
Undecided11%
Another candidate0%
Scenario 2: Adams drops out
Zohran Mamdani43%
Andrew Cuomo29%
Curtis Sliwa19%
Jim Walden2%
Undecided8%
Another candidate0%
Scenario 3: Sliwa drops out
Zohran Mamdani45%
Andrew Cuomo28%
Eric Adams14%
Jim Walden2%
Undecided10%
Another candidate1%
Scenario 4: Cuomo, Adams, Walden drop — Mamdani vs Sliwa (+Undecided/Another)
Zohran Mamdani44%
Curtis Sliwa21%
Undecided+Another34%
Scenario 5: Cuomo, Sliwa, Walden drop — Mamdani vs Adams (+Undecided/Another)
Zohran Mamdani44%
Eric Adams20%
Undecided+Another36%
Scenario 6: Adams, Sliwa, Walden drop — Mamdani vs Cuomo (+Undecided/Another)
Zohran Mamdani42%
Andrew Cuomo31%
Undecided+Another27%

Q:1 Likelihood to Vote: How likely are you to vote in the New York City mayoral election this November?

Gender %Age %Party %Race %County %Income %Education %
AnswerWeighted %FemaleMale18-3435-4950-6465+DemocraticRepublicanNon-PartisanOtherWhite (non-Hispanic)Black or African AmericanHispanic or LatinoEast or South AsianJewishOtherBRONXKINGSNEWYORKQUEENSRICHMONDUnder $25,000$25,000 – $49,999$50,000 – $74,999$75,000 – $99,999$100,000 – $149,999$150,000 – $199,999$200,000 or morePrefer not to sayLess than high schoolHigh school diploma or GEDSome college / Associate degreeBachelor’s degreeGraduate or professional degreePrefer not to say
Definitely will vote94.4%54.9%45.1%11.1%23.7%28.8%36.4%73.7%13.5%10.0%2.7%43.0%19.0%16.2%5.4%9.6%6.8%12.6%30.8%23.2%25.9%7.4%5.2%10.6%15.5%13.2%21.6%10.1%9.1%14.6%0.8%10.7%18.1%44.8%22.1%3.5%
Probably will vote5.6%44.3%55.7%14.8%26.7%38.2%20.3%70.4%14.4%11.4%3.9%39.7%15.7%13.2%13.7%5.4%12.2%12.1%27.3%14.6%34.5%11.5%14.7%23.3%10.4%9.5%22.1%3.8%6.1%10.1%2.7%24.3%18.7%33.1%15.3%5.9%

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Q:2 Vote Intention: If the New York City mayoral election were held today, which candidate would you choose?

Gender %Age %Party %Race %County %Income %Education %
AnswerWeighted %FemaleMale18-3435-4950-6465+DemocraticRepublicanNon-PartisanOtherWhite (non-Hispanic)Black or African AmericanHispanic or LatinoEast or South AsianJewishOtherBRONXKINGSNEWYORKQUEENSRICHMONDUnder $25,000$25,000 – $49,999$50,000 – $74,999$75,000 – $99,999$100,000 – $149,999$150,000 – $199,999$200,000 or morePrefer not to sayLess than high schoolHigh school diploma or GEDSome college / Associate degreeBachelor’s degreeGraduate or professional degreePrefer not to say
Zohran Mamdani41.8%55.4%44.6%21.1%31.3%24.5%23.1%90.9%1.5%6.0%1.7%44.8%21.8%17.3%6.7%4.9%4.6%12.0%37.3%23.2%23.3%4.2%5.7%12.1%15.7%15.2%22.8%10.5%10.3%7.5%0.0%8.5%13.9%51.9%24.0%1.7%
Andrew Cuomo23.4%61.9%38.1%2.4%15.8%36.6%45.2%75.3%9.2%13.5%1.9%36.6%24.7%12.5%5.0%15.1%6.3%15.4%23.5%31.2%25.0%4.9%6.9%9.6%11.7%10.7%22.6%10.6%9.0%19.0%1.2%9.1%18.9%45.8%22.0%3.0%
Curtis Sliwa16.5%45.5%54.5%3.6%18.2%33.9%44.3%32.5%45.1%15.0%7.5%55.6%5.9%19.4%3.0%5.5%10.6%11.9%27.4%9.0%31.5%20.3%2.9%14.4%18.3%13.5%17.8%7.8%5.4%20.0%0.9%23.8%26.6%31.3%13.2%4.1%
Eric Adams8.8%53.6%46.4%11.7%27.7%25.9%34.6%59.5%27.0%11.9%1.6%31.8%15.7%14.7%5.6%23.3%9.0%9.8%22.4%25.2%35.3%7.3%6.7%6.9%9.7%10.6%19.4%11.0%11.7%24.0%1.5%8.0%11.7%38.7%24.5%15.6%
Undecided7.9%55.0%45.0%2.2%19.7%25.0%53.1%76.3%9.9%10.8%2.9%37.3%20.2%17.3%6.9%7.4%10.8%14.8%23.6%23.5%28.0%10.0%7.2%9.9%20.5%10.7%23.2%6.5%5.2%16.8%1.8%12.3%25.1%35.7%23.0%2.1%
Jim Walden1.4%8.5%91.5%11.5%6.1%41.1%41.4%87.6%4.6%4.5%3.3%31.5%0.0%4.6%27.0%14.2%22.6%0.0%81.2%10.7%8.1%0.0%0.0%20.8%31.0%9.7%20.8%6.3%6.9%4.5%15.0%10.5%28.6%25.6%20.3%0.0%
Another candidate0.2%24.5%75.5%0.0%4.5%33.4%62.1%49.3%50.7%0.0%0.0%69.9%0.0%0.0%0.0%30.1%0.0%0.0%20.0%29.4%46.2%4.5%46.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%20.0%33.9%0.0%0.0%0.0%46.2%10.0%43.8%0.0%

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Q:3 What if your candidate quits?If your preferred candidate withdrew from active campaigning but remained on the ballot, would you:

Gender %Age %Party %Race %County %Income %Education %
AnswerWeighted %FemaleMale18-3435-4950-6465+DemocraticRepublicanNon-PartisanOtherWhite (non-Hispanic)Black or African AmericanHispanic or LatinoEast or South AsianJewishOtherBRONXKINGSNEWYORKQUEENSRICHMONDUnder $25,000$25,000 – $49,999$50,000 – $74,999$75,000 – $99,999$100,000 – $149,999$150,000 – $199,999$200,000 or morePrefer not to sayLess than high schoolHigh school diploma or GEDSome college / Associate degreeBachelor’s degreeGraduate or professional degreePrefer not to say
Vote for a different candidate63.6%50.1%49.9%4.7%21.7%33.0%40.7%56.4%24.2%15.9%3.5%44.6%13.4%13.2%3.9%18.0%6.9%10.7%27.2%23.2%29.0%9.9%5.4%6.8%11.1%13.7%21.9%11.7%10.1%19.2%1.0%11.1%19.6%43.7%19.6%5.0%
Still vote for them20.9%58.5%41.5%2.8%14.8%36.2%46.2%58.0%26.4%9.8%5.8%33.8%21.9%23.2%3.3%4.0%13.7%20.2%25.0%14.5%29.9%10.4%3.9%17.2%19.9%9.0%25.1%2.7%3.8%18.4%0.8%22.1%19.0%29.2%22.1%6.8%
Not sure11.2%60.9%39.1%4.6%8.8%40.2%46.4%67.3%22.3%9.2%1.2%40.8%20.1%6.8%13.7%9.1%9.4%14.8%23.5%27.9%21.5%12.1%7.0%27.1%14.5%6.0%7.3%7.9%5.4%24.8%6.5%13.4%27.8%27.6%17.8%6.9%
Not vote in the mayor's race4.3%60.4%39.6%14.6%11.8%21.6%51.9%76.2%14.1%6.5%3.1%42.9%20.0%21.0%7.7%0.0%8.4%3.0%25.4%30.5%32.0%9.1%6.9%1.4%27.7%6.9%9.4%16.7%9.1%21.9%0.0%15.2%21.6%51.3%8.9%3.1%

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Q:4 Backup choice: Which candidate would you choose instead?

Gender %Age %Party %Race %County %Income %Education %
Answer
Weighted %
(Base N = 439)
FemaleMale18-3435-4950-6465+DemocraticRepublicanNon-PartisanOtherWhite (non-Hispanic)Black or African AmericanHispanic or LatinoEast or South AsianJewishOtherBRONXKINGSNEWYORKQUEENSRICHMONDUnder $25,000$25,000 – $49,999$50,000 – $74,999$75,000 – $99,999$100,000 – $149,999$150,000 – $199,999$200,000 or morePrefer not to sayLess than high schoolHigh school diploma or GEDSome college / Associate degreeBachelor’s degreeGraduate or professional degreePrefer not to say
Eric Adams35.4%49.4%50.6%4.1%17.8%40.5%37.6%41.8%33.1%21.4%3.7%47.8%5.4%13.8%0.6%24.8%7.7%8.0%31.3%27.2%20.2%13.3%4.1%4.4%8.4%12.4%21.9%15.4%12.4%21.1%1.7%11.7%14.6%47.4%21.4%3.2%
Andrew Cuomo24.0%49.1%50.9%6.7%27.6%28.7%37.0%62.9%21.2%13.3%2.7%42.6%4.2%12.7%7.7%22.7%10.1%8.2%29.5%18.4%35.6%8.4%3.8%8.1%12.4%11.8%22.4%8.8%13.9%18.9%1.7%12.5%18.2%34.8%23.3%9.6%
Zohran Mamdani8.4%59.2%40.8%1.4%21.7%23.5%53.4%90.7%5.6%0.0%3.7%15.2%69.3%5.9%5.2%0.0%4.5%16.7%38.1%10.8%32.1%2.3%16.8%7.9%15.0%16.8%14.1%5.1%9.6%14.6%0.0%2.3%42.4%32.3%14.8%8.2%
Curtis Sliwa15.4%43.6%56.4%8.0%23.3%36.7%32.0%54.7%26.8%17.5%1.0%45.3%7.2%18.4%0.8%24.9%3.4%10.4%12.8%27.9%38.2%10.6%9.2%0.0%10.1%15.4%24.7%15.7%2.8%22.2%0.0%14.4%15.0%53.1%11.9%5.6%
Undecided12.2%65.2%34.8%1.2%17.7%26.7%54.4%71.3%9.9%14.0%4.8%51.7%23.5%12.0%10.9%0.0%1.9%20.2%23.8%22.1%27.1%6.7%1.2%17.6%16.5%13.7%21.0%10.2%6.5%13.3%0.0%5.1%26.1%43.3%25.5%0.0%
Another candidate1.8%27.9%72.1%3.2%32.0%24.0%40.9%45.3%36.8%15.2%2.7%57.9%0.0%16.1%0.0%0.0%25.9%13.4%15.2%44.6%2.7%24.1%0.0%25.9%0.0%15.2%40.4%3.2%1.9%13.4%0.0%16.8%37.3%40.9%5.1%0.0%
Jim Walden2.8%25.3%74.7%2.4%22.9%15.0%59.7%32.5%33.4%16.9%17.2%66.5%24.2%5.5%0.0%0.0%3.8%7.4%23.8%15.3%48.8%4.8%4.4%0.0%13.2%27.5%18.5%0.0%11.1%25.3%0.0%22.3%11.6%59.7%6.5%0.0%

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Q:5 Second-choice for mayor: If your first choice were not available, which candidate would be your second choice for mayor?

Gender %Age %Party %Race %County %Income %Education %
AnswerWeighted %FemaleMale18-3435-4950-6465+DemocraticRepublicanNon-PartisanOtherWhite (non-Hispanic)Black or African AmericanHispanic or LatinoEast or South AsianJewishOtherBRONXKINGSNEWYORKQUEENSRICHMONDUnder $25,000$25,000 – $49,999$50,000 – $74,999$75,000 – $99,999$100,000 – $149,999$150,000 – $199,999$200,000 or morePrefer not to sayLess than high schoolHigh school diploma or GEDSome college / Associate degreeBachelor’s degreeGraduate or professional degreePrefer not to say
Undecided28.2%61.8%38.2%17.0%24.4%27.3%31.4%83.5%8.8%5.7%2.1%43.6%17.8%18.2%7.1%5.9%7.4%13.3%35.3%24.5%22.6%4.4%5.8%14.4%16.4%13.9%20.2%7.9%10.0%11.3%0.8%8.2%15.4%49.4%25.1%1.0%
Curtis Sliwa9.8%50.7%49.3%10.4%23.9%36.0%29.7%52.9%26.0%19.3%1.7%45.2%9.2%12.8%5.0%19.2%8.7%12.0%18.8%18.9%35.2%15.1%5.3%7.0%10.8%12.1%25.1%13.1%5.2%21.2%1.4%9.8%12.6%52.6%14.7%8.9%
Eric Adams17.3%48.5%51.5%5.0%20.3%30.3%44.4%49.7%29.1%16.1%5.0%41.1%19.0%14.1%1.3%16.6%7.9%12.3%26.1%20.4%26.2%15.1%4.1%11.1%11.0%12.6%21.9%11.7%9.6%18.0%0.0%15.6%23.2%37.1%20.0%4.2%
Another candidate19.9%50.5%49.5%16.8%28.5%32.0%22.7%84.6%5.8%7.0%2.7%44.2%22.2%17.1%7.2%4.9%4.3%11.5%37.3%23.7%22.5%5.1%4.4%7.8%19.0%11.1%26.0%11.0%9.7%11.0%0.0%11.7%16.2%44.3%24.6%3.2%
Andrew Cuomo14.4%56.7%43.3%3.6%26.0%25.2%45.2%77.1%10.7%9.3%2.8%37.6%17.0%17.8%7.1%11.8%8.7%14.9%28.5%23.5%26.3%6.8%7.3%14.7%12.3%11.5%20.7%7.5%9.9%16.2%1.8%11.7%23.1%34.8%22.5%6.1%
Jim Walden6.0%47.9%52.1%13.2%18.1%13.8%54.9%68.7%10.5%18.1%2.7%62.5%6.2%16.3%5.0%4.5%5.5%5.0%26.4%24.7%39.6%4.2%7.3%8.3%14.8%22.2%15.8%11.4%5.7%14.5%2.3%13.3%16.9%54.1%13.4%0.0%
Zohran Mamdani4.4%55.2%44.8%0.5%13.7%45.8%40.0%94.7%3.4%0.0%1.8%22.4%53.8%6.6%9.1%0.0%8.1%19.4%28.3%19.6%30.7%2.1%11.8%12.0%27.0%11.3%12.2%6.9%5.5%13.4%3.4%15.1%22.9%35.3%18.2%5.0%

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Q:6 Favorable/Unfavorable — Eric Adams

Gender %Age %Party %Race %County %Income %Education %
AnswerWeighted %FemaleMale18-3435-4950-6465+DemocraticRepublicanNon-PartisanOtherWhite (non-Hispanic)Black or African AmericanHispanic or LatinoEast or South AsianJewishOtherBRONXKINGSNEWYORKQUEENSRICHMONDUnder $25,000$25,000 – $49,999$50,000 – $74,999$75,000 – $99,999$100,000 – $149,999$150,000 – $199,999$200,000 or morePrefer not to sayLess than high schoolHigh school diploma or GEDSome college / Associate degreeBachelor’s degreeGraduate or professional degreePrefer not to say
Very Favorable8.3%51.3%48.7%6.2%20.7%26.6%46.6%56.9%29.8%10.9%2.5%28.0%16.6%20.3%7.7%12.7%14.7%13.5%25.1%24.5%33.2%3.7%2.9%13.7%19.6%3.7%16.4%7.0%9.9%26.6%1.5%15.9%18.5%32.2%19.7%12.1%
Somewhat favorable16.6%50.8%49.2%5.6%22.1%29.9%42.4%55.6%25.7%14.9%3.9%39.4%19.1%11.7%2.8%19.9%7.0%12.4%29.6%20.0%23.9%14.0%5.6%10.2%7.9%17.8%21.9%11.3%7.1%18.4%0.5%14.3%20.1%36.2%22.0%6.9%
Neutral11.9%55.8%44.2%4.2%20.8%34.1%40.9%61.2%19.6%14.0%5.2%39.4%19.0%16.5%3.4%12.1%9.5%9.7%22.4%25.2%31.2%11.5%10.6%11.7%15.1%11.1%19.8%10.5%8.0%13.2%2.8%9.9%22.6%44.7%17.5%2.5%
Somewhat unfavorable13.4%54.8%45.2%7.2%17.6%30.7%44.5%68.9%12.9%15.2%3.0%46.7%20.4%14.5%3.9%9.4%5.2%15.6%19.4%18.7%34.6%11.7%0.6%13.4%16.0%11.6%19.7%8.8%9.3%20.6%0.0%12.2%15.5%45.4%23.3%3.6%
Very Unfavorable49.9%55.5%44.5%16.9%27.4%28.0%27.7%86.5%5.6%6.1%1.9%46.1%18.6%17.1%7.7%4.7%5.8%12.4%36.9%23.8%22.6%4.2%6.5%10.7%16.8%13.7%23.3%9.8%9.5%9.6%0.7%9.9%17.1%48.3%22.5%1.4%

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Q:7 Favorable/Unfavorable — Zohran Mamdani

Gender %Age %Party %Race %County %Income %Education %
AnswerWeighted %FemaleMale18-3435-4950-6465+DemocraticRepublicanNon-PartisanOtherWhite (non-Hispanic)Black or African AmericanHispanic or LatinoEast or South AsianJewishOtherBRONXKINGSNEWYORKQUEENSRICHMONDUnder $25,000$25,000 – $49,999$50,000 – $74,999$75,000 – $99,999$100,000 – $149,999$150,000 – $199,999$200,000 or morePrefer not to sayLess than high schoolHigh school diploma or GEDSome college / Associate degreeBachelor’s degreeGraduate or professional degreePrefer not to say
Very Favorable36.0%55.0%45.0%21.6%31.3%25.5%21.5%90.5%2.1%5.5%1.9%43.1%21.4%19.6%6.8%4.9%4.3%12.4%40.1%22.3%21.9%3.3%5.8%12.8%16.5%16.2%20.5%10.4%9.9%7.8%0.0%9.9%13.6%51.4%23.4%1.7%
Somewhat favorable11.2%56.7%43.3%9.4%26.0%23.5%41.1%90.1%0.0%8.9%1.0%42.0%37.1%8.1%3.9%2.2%6.7%18.8%25.9%24.1%26.5%4.8%9.4%12.7%18.9%9.3%20.8%9.0%9.7%10.2%1.3%7.2%22.6%43.6%22.9%2.3%
Neutral5.2%62.6%37.4%2.9%14.2%40.2%42.7%86.8%7.3%5.2%0.7%21.1%35.9%13.4%14.2%4.8%10.5%16.8%20.9%28.0%33.1%1.2%11.9%12.6%19.8%14.3%21.4%6.9%6.2%6.9%0.0%14.4%36.6%24.7%20.2%4.1%
Somewhat unfavorable5.4%59.4%40.6%4.4%13.0%30.5%52.1%76.2%3.2%16.7%3.9%43.2%32.8%13.0%0.6%6.2%4.2%18.7%23.5%30.6%16.7%10.4%4.0%13.9%11.9%14.1%20.0%6.8%10.3%18.9%0.0%3.9%13.4%49.0%30.9%2.8%
Very Unfavorable42.3%51.5%48.5%5.0%19.5%32.6%42.9%52.8%28.9%14.1%4.2%45.4%7.9%15.9%5.2%16.0%9.6%9.8%25.9%21.1%30.5%12.6%4.2%9.2%13.0%10.9%23.0%10.2%8.1%21.4%1.8%14.5%19.2%39.9%19.0%5.6%

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Q:8 Favorable/Unfavorable — Curtis Sliwa

Gender %Age %Party %Race %County %Income %Education %
AnswerWeighted %FemaleMale18-3435-4950-6465+DemocraticRepublicanNon-PartisanOtherWhite (non-Hispanic)Black or African AmericanHispanic or LatinoEast or South AsianJewishOtherBRONXKINGSNEWYORKQUEENSRICHMONDUnder $25,000$25,000 – $49,999$50,000 – $74,999$75,000 – $99,999$100,000 – $149,999$150,000 – $199,999$200,000 or morePrefer not to sayLess than high schoolHigh school diploma or GEDSome college / Associate degreeBachelor’s degreeGraduate or professional degreePrefer not to say
Very Favorable19.5%47.2%52.8%4.5%17.5%33.0%44.9%37.2%40.3%16.0%6.5%52.4%5.4%18.6%3.5%9.2%10.8%12.7%23.5%11.7%34.3%17.8%3.6%13.9%15.8%11.4%19.0%10.6%5.3%20.4%0.7%22.9%21.7%36.6%13.7%4.4%
Somewhat favorable11.8%43.7%56.3%7.4%26.7%26.1%39.9%57.5%23.3%16.9%2.3%43.4%10.2%19.3%2.8%17.8%6.6%8.0%25.8%20.3%34.5%11.4%8.2%9.6%12.3%15.2%25.6%9.0%7.5%12.5%3.4%8.2%22.3%41.1%16.4%8.6%
Neutral16.7%60.8%39.2%9.1%31.4%31.4%28.1%77.9%11.0%8.9%2.2%33.2%22.4%16.3%9.2%11.8%7.1%12.6%32.3%25.2%24.0%5.8%7.0%15.2%14.6%12.7%19.6%6.8%7.6%16.5%0.0%8.4%19.4%44.6%23.4%4.3%
Somewhat unfavorable15.2%65.1%34.9%21.9%24.2%25.5%28.5%86.2%2.5%9.8%1.5%41.0%21.4%13.7%8.3%10.2%5.4%17.3%27.9%27.7%24.7%2.3%5.1%8.9%14.9%11.3%22.4%12.0%12.3%13.0%1.0%11.2%11.8%53.7%21.4%1.0%
Very Unfavorable36.7%54.1%45.9%12.9%22.7%29.0%35.4%90.8%2.0%5.5%1.8%42.6%26.0%14.5%5.6%5.3%6.0%12.1%36.4%26.1%21.2%4.2%5.8%9.8%16.3%14.0%22.3%10.1%10.5%11.4%0.6%7.9%17.1%45.0%27.1%2.4%

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Q:9 Favorable/Unfavorable — Andrew Cuomo

Gender %Age %Party %Race %County %Income %Education %
AnswerWeighted %FemaleMale18-3435-4950-6465+DemocraticRepublicanNon-PartisanOtherWhite (non-Hispanic)Black or African AmericanHispanic or LatinoEast or South AsianJewishOtherBRONXKINGSNEWYORKQUEENSRICHMONDUnder $25,000$25,000 – $49,999$50,000 – $74,999$75,000 – $99,999$100,000 – $149,999$150,000 – $199,999$200,000 or morePrefer not to sayLess than high schoolHigh school diploma or GEDSome college / Associate degreeBachelor’s degreeGraduate or professional degreePrefer not to say
Very Favorable19.0%64.3%35.7%1.3%15.6%34.6%48.5%79.0%9.8%9.8%1.5%29.1%30.7%15.3%5.5%11.4%7.9%18.0%26.1%23.4%27.9%4.6%7.6%14.9%14.2%8.6%20.4%10.0%6.7%17.7%0.8%11.0%23.3%40.8%19.2%4.9%
Somewhat favorable19.3%52.0%48.0%2.3%25.2%23.5%49.0%69.4%13.5%14.6%2.5%42.7%16.8%12.9%7.4%13.5%6.7%13.0%24.5%25.3%29.1%8.2%6.0%11.3%15.5%13.0%21.8%8.7%9.2%14.4%0.7%11.6%18.9%43.2%22.7%2.9%
Neutral10.2%54.8%45.2%3.6%15.4%43.9%37.1%58.1%22.1%14.9%4.9%38.6%18.7%14.3%8.0%11.8%8.6%12.9%32.1%18.6%25.5%10.8%7.2%7.4%13.0%11.4%19.2%10.3%10.3%21.2%1.5%10.7%21.4%41.0%15.9%9.5%
Somewhat unfavorable12.4%51.1%48.9%14.8%21.3%34.2%29.7%70.4%18.3%8.2%3.1%49.6%21.9%14.5%0.9%6.8%6.2%7.6%24.0%29.0%33.2%6.2%2.1%9.3%13.8%18.0%20.1%10.7%8.5%17.5%1.5%11.6%16.6%42.7%25.2%2.3%
Very Unfavorable39.1%51.5%48.5%21.6%30.2%24.3%23.9%78.0%11.7%7.4%2.9%48.4%13.0%18.9%6.4%6.5%6.8%11.3%37.6%20.2%22.3%8.5%5.5%11.3%16.6%14.0%23.2%9.8%9.6%9.9%0.7%11.8%14.9%47.5%22.8%2.2%

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Q:10 Favorable/Unfavorable — Jim Walden

Gender %Age %Party %Race %County %Income %Education %
AnswerWeighted %FemaleMale18-3435-4950-6465+DemocraticRepublicanNon-PartisanOtherWhite (non-Hispanic)Black or African AmericanHispanic or LatinoEast or South AsianJewishOtherBRONXKINGSNEWYORKQUEENSRICHMONDUnder $25,000$25,000 – $49,999$50,000 – $74,999$75,000 – $99,999$100,000 – $149,999$150,000 – $199,999$200,000 or morePrefer not to sayLess than high schoolHigh school diploma or GEDSome college / Associate degreeBachelor’s degreeGraduate or professional degreePrefer not to say
Very Favorable3.2%41.5%58.5%9.4%20.7%36.1%33.8%73.2%16.5%8.9%1.4%36.5%11.7%9.0%7.4%14.7%20.7%13.8%37.3%38.7%10.2%0.0%8.2%17.0%16.0%15.7%21.8%3.4%9.2%8.6%6.4%18.8%11.7%35.7%22.0%5.5%
Somewhat favorable5.3%44.3%55.7%8.9%17.9%29.1%44.2%64.1%16.8%16.0%3.0%54.6%10.6%9.2%8.4%15.3%1.9%7.5%25.2%23.4%37.4%6.6%5.6%10.7%22.7%6.4%17.7%10.1%8.4%18.4%2.8%12.4%22.3%38.3%20.4%3.8%
Neutral60.9%54.7%45.3%11.3%24.1%28.5%36.1%71.7%13.6%11.6%3.1%42.6%18.3%17.0%5.7%10.0%6.4%12.4%29.8%22.9%27.4%7.6%4.6%12.0%13.8%13.9%21.3%10.7%9.6%14.1%0.6%9.4%17.5%46.1%22.9%3.6%
Somewhat unfavorable10.2%65.1%34.9%18.8%17.3%32.1%31.8%81.1%12.5%3.9%2.5%46.6%22.0%10.0%5.0%10.6%5.9%9.9%31.7%26.0%23.7%8.8%8.0%8.1%20.0%13.8%15.4%9.8%6.6%18.4%1.5%8.6%20.9%46.1%21.1%1.9%
Very Unfavorable20.4%52.3%47.7%8.8%28.4%29.3%33.5%77.7%12.7%7.4%2.2%39.3%22.1%19.2%5.9%4.4%9.1%15.9%33.2%18.0%24.2%8.7%7.8%10.4%15.0%11.1%26.8%7.9%8.1%12.9%0.3%17.7%18.7%40.2%18.7%4.3%

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Q:11 Favorable/Unfavorable — Jessica Tisch (NYC Police Commissioner)

Gender %Age %Party %Race %County %Income %Education %
AnswerWeighted %FemaleMale18-3435-4950-6465+DemocraticRepublicanNon-PartisanOtherWhite (non-Hispanic)Black or African AmericanHispanic or LatinoEast or South AsianJewishOtherBRONXKINGSNEWYORKQUEENSRICHMONDUnder $25,000$25,000 – $49,999$50,000 – $74,999$75,000 – $99,999$100,000 – $149,999$150,000 – $199,999$200,000 or morePrefer not to sayLess than high schoolHigh school diploma or GEDSome college / Associate degreeBachelor’s degreeGraduate or professional degreePrefer not to say
Very Favorable17.7%53.5%46.5%3.1%12.4%29.8%54.8%71.9%17.0%8.8%2.3%55.9%13.6%9.8%2.0%12.3%6.5%12.4%20.6%29.6%25.2%12.2%2.8%9.1%12.4%13.3%15.1%12.3%10.9%24.0%1.5%11.8%18.0%44.4%20.1%4.2%
Somewhat favorable16.9%49.8%50.2%6.4%20.6%27.6%45.3%73.3%14.7%9.1%2.8%41.6%16.4%18.6%2.4%14.5%6.5%15.0%25.8%26.1%26.1%7.0%7.0%12.0%13.6%10.0%25.4%11.8%9.0%11.2%0.9%12.0%15.2%44.8%23.9%3.3%
Neutral37.1%58.7%41.3%11.4%23.7%34.0%30.9%71.4%12.8%13.6%2.2%37.7%22.2%15.4%7.5%10.4%6.9%13.6%30.9%21.8%27.8%6.0%5.7%14.1%14.2%15.6%19.1%9.8%7.7%13.8%0.2%10.6%18.8%42.9%23.9%3.6%
Somewhat unfavorable12.5%59.3%40.7%24.9%28.5%20.6%25.9%81.2%9.4%4.5%4.9%47.0%14.5%21.9%5.8%5.2%5.5%9.3%44.1%15.9%24.1%6.6%5.3%9.1%22.3%8.8%27.9%7.8%11.7%7.1%0.0%12.9%16.6%45.1%22.7%2.8%
Very Unfavorable15.8%45.9%54.1%15.0%36.8%26.3%21.9%74.8%13.5%8.6%3.0%38.0%22.8%17.2%10.4%1.5%10.1%10.6%35.8%19.1%26.3%8.2%8.2%8.5%17.0%13.0%25.6%6.2%7.4%14.1%2.6%11.4%21.3%45.4%15.4%3.9%

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Q:12 Top issues: share of respondents selecting each

Gender %Age %Party %Race %County %Income %Education %
AnswerWeighted %FemaleMale18-3435-4950-6465+DemocraticRepublicanNon-PartisanOtherWhite (non-Hispanic)Black or African AmericanHispanic or LatinoEast or South AsianJewishOtherBRONXKINGSNEWYORKQUEENSRICHMONDUnder $25,000$25,000 – $49,999$50,000 – $74,999$75,000 – $99,999$100,000 – $149,999$150,000 – $199,999$200,000 or morePrefer not to sayLess than high schoolHigh school diploma or GEDSome college / Associate degreeBachelor’s degreeGraduate or professional degreePrefer not to say
Cost of living61.3%57.2%42.8%14.7%25.7%28.8%30.7%78.2%10.0%9.0%2.7%40.1%20.4%17.7%6.1%8.3%7.5%13.2%34.9%21.3%24.0%6.6%6.5%12.1%15.6%13.5%21.5%9.7%8.2%12.9%0.7%12.7%18.4%42.1%21.9%4.3%
Public safety53.9%54.6%45.4%7.8%21.7%31.9%38.6%64.3%19.2%13.5%3.1%42.8%14.9%17.5%6.7%10.9%7.2%13.3%24.0%22.9%29.8%10.1%3.0%9.3%14.2%12.3%23.5%9.8%9.5%18.3%1.3%12.8%18.4%43.2%20.3%3.9%
Housing affordability38.9%55.0%45.0%19.3%29.4%24.7%26.6%83.4%5.2%9.1%2.3%44.2%25.3%15.6%5.1%4.7%5.0%14.3%35.8%25.9%19.3%4.7%6.9%11.7%14.0%13.6%26.7%10.2%8.7%8.3%0.4%6.4%15.5%49.5%25.8%2.4%
Finding and keeping affordable healthcare20.6%57.3%42.7%7.6%23.2%30.9%38.4%82.9%5.4%8.9%2.8%40.1%20.8%15.1%6.8%7.9%9.3%17.2%31.4%23.1%24.4%3.8%9.5%21.0%18.0%8.4%16.3%8.1%4.6%14.0%1.0%13.3%18.0%40.8%23.9%2.9%
Services to help older residents remain in their homes as they age15.9%57.0%43.0%3.4%9.2%22.2%65.2%78.9%10.5%8.9%1.7%38.8%24.3%17.8%3.8%4.8%10.4%10.1%27.8%23.3%34.0%4.8%10.7%14.6%21.1%12.6%16.1%6.9%3.5%14.4%0.9%11.5%24.6%41.0%18.6%3.5%
Public transportation access and affordability20.6%56.7%43.3%22.5%30.2%21.0%26.3%83.1%5.9%8.4%2.5%57.1%10.6%10.4%7.7%8.8%5.4%8.2%37.3%28.7%20.2%5.7%3.9%9.0%12.2%12.6%21.0%10.7%15.4%15.3%0.6%3.4%10.8%56.8%25.7%2.7%
Better jobs and economic opportunities20.5%49.5%50.5%14.1%31.5%26.9%27.5%73.3%14.8%8.6%3.4%35.5%22.6%18.5%4.8%11.7%6.9%16.1%29.3%27.3%19.9%7.3%6.0%10.0%9.3%15.1%22.5%10.1%12.6%14.4%1.0%10.2%14.5%47.1%25.3%2.0%
Utility and energy costs18.2%48.9%51.1%6.4%18.4%31.1%44.1%63.3%21.8%10.4%4.5%45.0%17.9%17.7%2.9%7.8%8.8%14.0%25.0%12.9%34.7%13.4%5.8%9.1%15.0%17.1%19.0%10.6%5.3%18.2%0.7%15.9%26.6%34.1%17.0%5.6%
Other7.5%51.5%48.5%8.4%26.5%34.8%30.4%61.3%18.6%16.1%3.9%41.0%11.9%8.8%2.0%25.8%10.4%3.2%25.5%25.7%35.1%10.5%2.8%6.9%7.9%14.1%25.2%10.1%15.2%17.7%1.7%10.9%9.5%48.3%26.4%3.2%

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Q:13 Leadership style:Which approach to city leadership do you prefer?

Gender %Age %Party %Race %County %Income %Education %
AnswerWeighted %FemaleMale18-3435-4950-6465+DemocraticRepublicanNon-PartisanOtherWhite (non-Hispanic)Black or African AmericanHispanic or LatinoEast or South AsianJewishOtherBRONXKINGSNEWYORKQUEENSRICHMONDUnder $25,000$25,000 – $49,999$50,000 – $74,999$75,000 – $99,999$100,000 – $149,999$150,000 – $199,999$200,000 or morePrefer not to sayLess than high schoolHigh school diploma or GEDSome college / Associate degreeBachelor’s degreeGraduate or professional degreePrefer not to say
A mayor who focuses on improving existing systems48.0%56.8%43.2%6.8%17.7%30.6%44.9%70.4%15.7%11.5%2.3%40.4%17.8%14.3%5.8%13.3%8.4%13.9%28.1%25.0%24.7%8.3%6.4%11.6%15.3%10.7%20.2%8.8%10.0%17.0%1.1%10.3%17.5%44.6%22.4%4.2%
A mayor who pursues major policy changes36.8%49.8%50.2%18.6%31.4%25.3%24.6%80.0%8.2%9.1%2.7%44.2%19.8%18.4%6.6%5.7%5.3%11.3%35.7%20.6%27.2%5.1%4.9%12.0%16.3%16.2%22.6%10.9%8.4%8.6%0.4%13.5%16.5%46.1%20.4%3.0%
Neither of these approaches appeal to me15.1%57.6%42.4%7.9%24.9%34.8%32.4%67.7%19.8%8.1%4.4%46.9%19.5%15.7%4.3%6.0%7.5%11.6%26.3%20.7%29.4%11.9%5.6%9.1%12.3%12.4%23.5%10.2%6.8%20.1%1.5%10.2%24.4%38.0%22.7%3.3%

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Q:14 Voting strategy: What best describes your approach to choosing a candidate?

Gender %Age %Party %Race %County %Income %Education %
AnswerWeighted %FemaleMale18-3435-4950-6465+DemocraticRepublicanNon-PartisanOtherWhite (non-Hispanic)Black or African AmericanHispanic or LatinoEast or South AsianJewishOtherBRONXKINGSNEWYORKQUEENSRICHMONDUnder $25,000$25,000 – $49,999$50,000 – $74,999$75,000 – $99,999$100,000 – $149,999$150,000 – $199,999$200,000 or morePrefer not to sayLess than high schoolHigh school diploma or GEDSome college / Associate degreeBachelor’s degreeGraduate or professional degreePrefer not to say
I choose based on who can bring change26.7%55.2%44.8%3.7%27.1%28.8%40.5%79.4%8.9%9.6%2.1%27.9%32.6%21.8%7.4%2.2%8.0%17.7%28.6%20.7%27.0%6.1%10.7%18.7%15.9%12.4%17.6%7.2%5.4%12.2%0.9%19.0%23.2%35.5%16.8%4.6%
I choose the candidate closest to my views69.6%54.7%45.3%14.1%22.4%29.4%34.1%71.2%15.3%10.4%3.1%48.5%13.7%14.4%5.1%11.4%6.9%11.2%31.2%22.8%26.7%8.2%3.8%9.1%14.9%13.3%23.8%10.3%10.0%14.8%1.0%8.9%16.3%47.3%23.8%2.7%
I choose based on who can win3.7%40.5%59.5%15.5%27.6%30.7%26.1%76.1%13.5%7.7%2.7%42.6%15.5%5.3%8.7%23.5%4.4%3.4%36.1%36.7%14.2%9.6%5.8%1.6%17.3%11.5%9.3%18.5%14.0%21.9%0.0%5.7%16.0%46.5%17.9%13.9%

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Q:15 Right Track / Wrong Track:How do you feel about the direction New York City is headed?

Gender %Age %Party %Race %County %Income %Education %
AnswerWeighted %FemaleMale18-3435-4950-6465+DemocraticRepublicanNon-PartisanOtherWhite (non-Hispanic)Black or African AmericanHispanic or LatinoEast or South AsianJewishOtherBRONXKINGSNEWYORKQUEENSRICHMONDUnder $25,000$25,000 – $49,999$50,000 – $74,999$75,000 – $99,999$100,000 – $149,999$150,000 – $199,999$200,000 or morePrefer not to sayLess than high schoolHigh school diploma or GEDSome college / Associate degreeBachelor’s degreeGraduate or professional degreePrefer not to say
Right direction9.2%44.7%55.3%14.0%23.1%29.6%33.2%79.5%10.1%7.5%2.8%45.0%17.0%23.4%5.1%4.8%4.8%14.9%33.0%31.2%17.6%3.2%6.4%11.2%4.3%17.2%20.3%9.6%22.1%9.0%1.6%10.7%16.9%49.6%17.9%3.3%
Wrong direction52.7%53.3%46.7%9.4%24.1%32.7%33.8%67.8%18.6%10.4%3.2%40.6%17.4%19.0%6.4%8.7%7.9%12.8%29.9%21.0%27.3%9.1%5.4%11.8%15.6%12.5%23.3%9.2%7.1%15.2%0.6%13.6%21.3%42.4%19.5%2.6%
Mixed/Neither35.8%57.2%42.8%13.0%23.9%24.8%38.2%80.6%7.2%10.0%2.2%46.9%21.8%9.7%5.1%10.9%5.7%12.2%31.5%23.4%26.2%6.8%5.3%10.3%18.1%12.2%19.7%10.4%8.7%15.3%0.8%8.6%13.6%44.8%26.6%5.5%
No opinion2.2%72.5%27.5%19.4%20.3%19.9%40.4%72.6%10.4%13.4%3.7%20.4%12.3%18.2%9.1%20.1%19.9%5.7%25.3%19.8%42.5%6.7%19.5%19.7%6.7%20.1%16.4%13.9%1.2%2.5%6.2%9.7%22.2%52.0%10.0%0.0%

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Q:16 Future Outlook: How do you feel about New York City's future?

Gender %Age %Party %Race %County %Income %Education %
AnswerWeighted %FemaleMale18-3435-4950-6465+DemocraticRepublicanNon-PartisanOtherWhite (non-Hispanic)Black or African AmericanHispanic or LatinoEast or South AsianJewishOtherBRONXKINGSNEWYORKQUEENSRICHMONDUnder $25,000$25,000 – $49,999$50,000 – $74,999$75,000 – $99,999$100,000 – $149,999$150,000 – $199,999$200,000 or morePrefer not to sayLess than high schoolHigh school diploma or GEDSome college / Associate degreeBachelor’s degreeGraduate or professional degreePrefer not to say
Very optimistic — with the right leadership, things can improve30.6%54.1%45.9%14.1%27.8%28.4%29.6%82.4%8.4%7.0%2.3%40.9%22.4%19.9%5.9%5.4%5.4%12.9%39.9%22.5%20.1%4.5%8.0%10.3%14.7%14.5%19.8%9.6%9.4%13.9%1.3%13.7%16.4%45.9%19.4%3.4%
Somewhat optimistic — I’m not sure who to trust, but I haven’t given up28.6%58.3%41.7%12.8%23.0%25.0%39.2%82.7%6.4%8.3%2.6%44.1%22.2%11.6%7.6%7.9%6.6%12.5%28.4%25.2%27.1%6.7%5.8%13.8%14.7%10.9%22.0%13.8%10.3%8.6%0.0%8.6%18.9%42.7%28.1%1.8%
Very pessimistic — NYC’s future looks bleak no matter who the next mayor is7.4%43.7%56.3%7.1%22.0%35.7%35.2%51.3%25.0%17.9%5.9%38.2%14.2%15.7%2.0%12.4%17.5%16.4%26.8%23.0%20.5%13.2%7.8%4.8%14.8%16.5%26.9%6.2%5.1%17.9%4.4%13.1%17.4%38.4%19.0%7.6%
Somewhat pessimistic — the city is headed in the wrong direction21.0%51.5%48.5%6.8%22.6%33.4%37.1%56.1%27.5%13.3%3.1%43.4%13.8%15.4%6.2%14.2%7.1%11.3%25.7%19.4%32.4%11.3%1.1%10.5%18.4%14.2%20.2%7.9%8.2%19.4%0.3%14.6%17.8%44.8%19.0%3.5%
Neither optimistic nor pessimistic – I am not sure12.3%56.8%43.2%11.3%19.1%30.6%39.1%73.4%12.4%12.1%2.2%46.0%13.4%18.2%3.6%12.5%6.3%12.1%23.6%22.9%33.2%8.3%6.9%13.7%12.9%9.8%24.4%6.2%8.1%18.1%1.1%6.4%21.8%45.6%18.8%6.3%

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Q:17 Preferred Voting Method: How do you plan to vote in the mayoral election?

Gender %Age %Party %Race %County %Income %Education %
AnswerWeighted %FemaleMale18-3435-4950-6465+DemocraticRepublicanNon-PartisanOtherWhite (non-Hispanic)Black or African AmericanHispanic or LatinoEast or South AsianJewishOtherBRONXKINGSNEWYORKQUEENSRICHMONDUnder $25,000$25,000 – $49,999$50,000 – $74,999$75,000 – $99,999$100,000 – $149,999$150,000 – $199,999$200,000 or morePrefer not to sayLess than high schoolHigh school diploma or GEDSome college / Associate degreeBachelor’s degreeGraduate or professional degreePrefer not to say
On Election Day at a polling place50.9%51.8%48.2%9.6%24.5%33.2%32.7%65.1%19.9%11.9%3.1%42.8%14.9%18.8%6.0%8.5%9.0%13.4%29.6%18.3%28.8%9.8%6.6%11.2%15.9%12.5%23.4%9.4%8.0%13.0%1.1%15.8%20.0%41.4%18.5%3.1%
During the early voting period37.8%58.2%41.8%14.3%23.5%26.9%35.3%83.7%6.2%7.6%2.5%44.3%24.4%12.3%5.8%9.1%4.2%11.5%31.4%28.3%23.7%5.1%3.3%10.7%16.0%14.7%20.0%10.7%10.6%14.1%0.6%7.5%14.7%48.2%27.0%2.0%
Haven't decided yet6.1%50.9%49.1%11.3%23.0%23.8%41.9%72.4%13.6%10.6%3.4%35.6%12.5%20.1%3.3%17.2%11.3%12.3%30.8%21.4%26.4%9.1%10.2%14.6%9.9%12.0%15.7%6.9%6.9%23.8%0.0%4.4%16.1%47.6%14.6%17.4%
By absentee ballot4.8%52.1%47.9%7.6%18.5%16.3%57.6%83.0%5.5%10.3%1.2%42.3%26.3%9.2%8.4%11.2%2.5%11.0%36.6%26.1%23.0%3.3%8.4%15.0%10.2%7.0%24.8%10.5%8.2%15.8%0.0%6.2%29.7%40.1%23.9%0.0%
Other0.4%93.9%6.1%0.0%55.2%0.0%44.8%100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%19.4%0.0%38.8%0.0%6.1%35.8%38.8%19.4%41.8%0.0%0.0%35.8%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%6.1%58.2%35.8%0.0%0.0%0.0%6.1%58.2%

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Q:18 Political identity: How would you describe your political views?

Gender %Age %Party %Race %County %Income %Education %
AnswerWeighted %FemaleMale18-3435-4950-6465+DemocraticRepublicanNon-PartisanOtherWhite (non-Hispanic)Black or African AmericanHispanic or LatinoEast or South AsianJewishOtherBRONXKINGSNEWYORKQUEENSRICHMONDUnder $25,000$25,000 – $49,999$50,000 – $74,999$75,000 – $99,999$100,000 – $149,999$150,000 – $199,999$200,000 or morePrefer not to sayLess than high schoolHigh school diploma or GEDSome college / Associate degreeBachelor’s degreeGraduate or professional degreePrefer not to say
Somewhat liberal20.3%55.3%44.7%13.8%20.6%29.0%36.6%90.8%1.2%6.9%1.2%41.0%25.6%15.8%5.7%7.3%4.6%15.5%30.6%26.5%21.0%6.5%5.9%10.3%10.2%15.7%20.5%12.4%14.1%10.9%0.0%7.8%15.3%52.6%23.8%0.5%
Somewhat conservative14.0%46.1%53.9%6.7%20.8%33.0%39.5%52.6%26.8%17.4%3.2%43.3%11.8%15.0%6.4%14.6%8.9%11.7%25.8%16.3%30.2%16.0%6.2%7.4%16.3%8.4%28.3%9.6%7.4%16.3%1.5%9.7%27.4%39.1%18.3%4.0%
Moderate / centrist22.2%54.5%45.5%4.2%23.7%35.5%36.6%76.7%4.9%15.6%2.9%35.5%22.3%13.5%6.5%14.8%7.5%12.4%24.8%30.0%27.9%4.9%3.8%7.5%15.4%14.1%20.0%11.1%10.1%18.0%1.2%9.0%16.7%43.3%24.3%5.4%
No particular preference8.7%58.4%41.6%6.4%30.6%34.5%28.5%66.7%13.6%15.6%4.1%30.4%30.9%17.9%4.6%0.9%15.3%19.3%28.3%11.0%34.7%6.6%7.8%19.4%17.4%11.7%18.1%7.3%2.1%16.1%1.7%24.4%25.0%26.5%15.1%7.3%
Very conservative10.8%46.5%53.5%4.5%13.9%32.1%49.5%21.4%64.7%7.8%6.0%53.9%4.3%22.2%5.5%7.9%6.2%12.7%27.2%9.5%32.6%18.0%5.0%14.9%16.0%14.7%15.3%6.7%6.3%21.1%0.6%26.3%22.3%36.7%11.5%2.6%
Very liberal24.0%60.1%39.9%23.5%30.5%18.5%27.5%94.1%1.4%2.5%1.9%50.3%16.0%15.8%5.9%6.8%5.3%8.4%41.3%26.8%21.4%2.1%6.7%13.6%17.7%12.0%24.2%8.7%8.1%9.1%0.9%6.5%12.2%50.4%26.4%3.5%

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Sponsor & Fielding

  • Sponsor: AARP
    Conducted by: Gotham Polling & Analytics
    Mode & language: SMS invitations to a self-administered web survey (English only)
    Field date: August 11, 2025
    Average questionnaire time: 3 minutes 33 seconds.

Population, Frame, and Sample

  • Population: Likely voters registered in New York City (five boroughs), age 18+.
    Sampling frame: L2 voter file of registered voters in NYC (five boroughs) with matched mobile
    numbers (N=4,745,759).
    Sample design: Random selection of 70,000 records from the frame (stratified by Age Range
    (birth-year), Voter Gender, and Party description).
    Invitations sent: 69,767 SMS

Dispositions (AAPOR-style mapping)

  • Complete interviews (I): 1,376
    Partial interviews (P): 275
    Screened ineligible (NE): 62 (additional ineligible: invalid 81, not mobile 83)
    Refusals (R): 2,581 (“do not text”)
    Other eligible non-interview (O): 414 (DNC + other replies)
    Undelivered (UH): 2,757
    Delivered (approx.): 67,010
    Non-contact (NC): 62,364 (Delivered – (I+P+R+O))
    Outcome Rates (AAPOR Standard Definitions; RR3 uses ê for UH)
    ê (eligibility rate among known) = 0.954
    RR1 = 0.020 • RR3 = 0.020
    COOP1 = 0.296 • CON1 = 0.069 • REF1 = 0.037

Weighting

  • Variables: gender, age, party registration, race, county, household income, and education.
    Targets: NYC general-election voter distributions (2021 & 2022).
    Method: iterative proportional fiting (raking), then normalization. Final reporting uses the
    “Normalized Weight” in SurveyData.
    Trimming: weights winsorized at CapMultiplier × median (final weight) with CapMultiplier=2.5
    by default; renormalized to mean=1.
    Diagnostics: Based on the current cap in the Weights sheet, DEFF » 1.49 and n_eff » 921; 95%
    MOE near 50% » ±3.2 points (within-frame).

Questionnaire & Routing

  • Full question wording and response options are provided in the attached Questionnaire PDF
    (exact text as displayed in data headers).
    Key skips (summary): “Backup choice” was asked after vote intention; results include modeled
    “dropout scenarios” that reallocate first-choice votes to each respondent’s backup choice.
    Respondents who remained undecided, selected “another candidate,” provided no backup, or
    backed a candidate who also dropped remain in the “Undecided + Another” bucket.

Quality Controls & Limitations

  • Quality: de-duplication by L2ID/device/IP; speed checks; straight-line flags; geofencing to NYC;
    termination of unlikely voters (n=62).
    Coverage: registered voters with matched mobile numbers; nonresponse and measurement
    error are possible; SMS-to-web mode effects may occur.
    Interpretation of modeled scenarios: “dropout scenario” head-to-heads are modeled
    outcomes, not observed elections.

Contact:

Gotham Polling & Analytics
press@gothampolling.com
htps://gothampolling.com/
“Precision Polling for Data-Driven Political Strategies”

Stephen Graves

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