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Poll: Gotham AARP NYC Mayor October
Poll: Gotham AARP NYC Mayor General Election 2025 — October
NYC Mayoral Election 2025 – October Poll Results
NEW YORK, NY — A new Gotham Polling & Analytics / AARP New York survey of 1,040 likely voters for the November 2025 New York City mayoral election finds Assembly Member Zohran Mamdani maintaining a clear lead in the general election field. The poll, conducted in early October using a representative sample of likely general election voters, builds on Gotham Polling’s August study with AARP New York and measures voter sentiment following Mayor Eric Adams’s withdrawal from the race.
Key Findings
- Current Vote Intention: Mamdani leads with 43.2%, followed by Andrew Cuomo at 28.9%, Curtis Sliwa at 19.4%, and 8.4% undecided or preferring another candidate.
- Support once held by Mayor Adams—who previously polled near 9–10%—has largely shifted to Cuomo, with smaller portions moving to Sliwa and modest gains for Mamdani.
- Voter engagement remains extremely high, with more than nine in ten respondents saying they definitely plan to vote.
Head-to-Head Scenarios
The poll modeled two hypothetical runoff-style matchups using respondents’ first-choice, backup-choice, and second-choice preferences:
- If Cuomo drops out: Mamdani’s support rises to 46.8%, Sliwa increases to 31.5%, and 21.8% remain undecided or back another candidate. This represents a 10-point gain for Sliwa since the August poll’s comparable scenario.
- If Sliwa drops out: Mamdani holds at 44.6%, while Cuomo climbs to 40.7%, with 14.7% undecided or preferring another candidate. Nearly 78% of undecided voters are age 50+, a group where Cuomo performs strongest, and 42% identify as Republicans—suggesting many could coalesce around Cuomo to block Mamdani. Cuomo’s 40.7% marks a nine-point increase from his August head-to-head result.
Scenario 1: Cuomo drops out
| Answer | Weighted Base N | Gender % | Age % | Party % | Race % | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate / Bucket | Weighted N | Weighted % | Female | Male | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | Democratic | Republican | Non-Partisan | Other | White (non-Hispanic) | Black or African American | Hispanic or Latino | East or South Asian | Jewish | Other |
| Zohran Mamdani | 487 | 46.8% | 55% | 45% | 23% | 27% | 24% | 26% | 88% | 2% | 8% | 2% | 37% | 28% | 16% | 8% | 7% | 4% |
| Curtis Sliwa | 327 | 31.5% | 50% | 50% | 8% | 20% | 33% | 39% | 40% | 39% | 16% | 5% | 51% | 8% | 18% | 5% | 9% | 9% |
| Undecided+Another | 226 | 21.8% | 64% | 36% | 4% | 12% | 32% | 52% | 74% | 12% | 10% | 4% | 33% | 30% | 24% | 3% | 5% | 5% |
Scenario 2: Adams drops out
| Answer | Weighted Base N | Gender % | Age % | Party % | Race % | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate / Bucket | Weighted N | Weighted % | Female | Male | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | Democratic | Republican | Non-Partisan | Other | White (non-Hispanic) | Black or African American | Hispanic or Latino | East or South Asian | Jewish | Other |
| Zohran Mamdani | 464 | 44.6% | 55% | 45% | 24% | 27% | 22% | 26% | 88% | 1% | 8% | 3% | 39% | 27% | 16% | 8% | 7% | 3% |
| Andrew Cuomo | 423 | 40.7% | 54% | 46% | 6% | 18% | 37% | 39% | 59% | 22% | 15% | 4% | 41% | 19% | 22% | 4% | 9% | 5% |
| Undecided+Another | 153 | 14.7% | 60% | 40% | 6% | 16% | 25% | 53% | 46% | 42% | 9% | 4% | 45% | 18% | 14% | 4% | 4% | 15% |
Favorability and Issue Landscape
All three candidates face net-negative favorability ratings, with none exceeding 50% overall favorability. Mamdani shows the widest polarization—36% very favorable versus 39% very unfavorable—reflecting an intense but divided electorate.
Voters continue to identify the cost of living as the top concern (up two points since August). Nearly half cite public safety and 39% name housing affordability as major issues. While the overall issue hierarchy remains steady, concern about cost of living has grown slightly while public safety has edged down.
Perceptions of the city’s direction remain negative, with a three-point rise in those saying New York is “on the wrong track.” Yet optimism has improved modestly: five percent more voters now say they are “very optimistic” that conditions can improve under the right leadership.
Voting Plans
About 36% of respondents plan to vote early, while just over half intend to cast ballots in person on Election Day.
For additional pdfs and spreadsheets see AARP NY’s site https://www.aarp.org/pri/topics/voter-research/politics/new-york-city-mayoral-poll-2025/
Q:1 Likelihood to Vote: How likely are you to vote in the New York City mayoral election this November?
No Data Found
| Gender % | Age % | Party % | Race % | County % | Income % | Education % | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Answer | Weighted N | Weighted % | Female | Male | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | Democratic | Republican | Non-Partisan | Other | White (non-Hispanic) | Black or African American | Hispanic or Latino | East or South Asian | Jewish | Other | BRONX | KINGS | NEWYORK | QUEENS | RICHMOND | Under $25,000 | $25,000 – $49,999 | $50,000 – $74,999 | $75,000 – $99,999 | $100,000 – $149,999 | $150,000 – $199,999 | $200,000 or more | Prefer not to say | Less than high school | High school diploma or GED | Some college / Associate degree | Bachelor’s degree | Graduate or professional degree | Prefer not to say |
| Definitely will vote | 980 | 94.3% | 55% | 45% | 13% | 21% | 29% | 36% | 71% | 16% | 10.0% | 3% | 41% | 21% | 18% | 6% | 8% | 6% | 16% | 30% | 20% | 25% | 9% | 8% | 14% | 16% | 13% | 20% | 10% | 7% | 12% | 2% | 16% | 20% | 41% | 17% | 4% |
| Probably will vote | 60 | 5.7% | 56% | 44% | 29% | 27% | 20% | 24% | 59% | 10% | 28% | 3% | 34% | 32% | 18% | 4% | 2% | 10% | 18% | 33% | 13% | 27% | 9% | 9% | 16% | 8% | 28% | 29% | 2% | 5% | 3% | 0% | 14% | 28% | 26% | 14% | 8% |
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The Data is Not Available
Q:2 Vote Intention: If the New York City mayoral election were held today, which candidate would you choose?
No Data Found
| Gender % | Age % | Party % | Race % | County % | Income % | Education % | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Answer | Weighted N | Weighted % | Female | Male | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | Democratic | Republican | Non-Partisan | Other | White (non-Hispanic) | Black or African American | Hispanic or Latino | East or South Asian | Jewish | Other | BRONX | KINGS | NEWYORK | QUEENS | RICHMOND | Under $25,000 | $25,000 – $49,999 | $50,000 – $74,999 | $75,000 – $99,999 | $100,000 – $149,999 | $150,000 – $199,999 | $200,000 or more | Prefer not to say | Less than high school | High school diploma or GED | Some college / Associate degree | Bachelor’s degree | Graduate or professional degree | Prefer not to say |
| Zohran Mamdani | 450 | 43.2% | 54% | 46% | 24% | 27% | 22% | 26% | 88% | 1% | 8% | 3% | 39% | 26% | 16% | 8% | 7% | 3% | 14% | 38% | 21% | 25% | 3% | 7% | 15% | 13% | 14% | 23% | 12% | 8% | 8% | 2% | 7% | 21% | 49% | 19% | 2% |
| Andrew Cuomo | 301 | 28.9% | 54% | 46% | 6% | 18% | 37% | 39% | 65% | 17% | 15% | 4% | 39% | 21% | 24% | 3% | 10% | 3% | 17% | 28% | 23% | 24% | 8% | 11% | 12% | 15% | 14% | 20% | 7% | 8% | 14% | 2% | 24% | 15% | 36% | 19% | 4% |
| Curtis Sliwa | 202 | 19.4% | 50% | 50% | 8% | 16% | 33% | 43% | 31% | 50% | 13% | 6% | 54% | 6% | 18% | 6% | 5% | 11% | 16% | 14% | 13% | 31% | 26% | 5% | 16% | 17% | 16% | 18% | 10% | 5% | 14% | 1% | 24% | 24% | 34% | 10% | 6% |
| Undecided | 80 | 7.7% | 71% | 29% | 4% | 19% | 28% | 49% | 86% | 7% | 7% | 0% | 23% | 42% | 18% | 3% | 3% | 11% | 21% | 36% | 20% | 22% | 1% | 10% | 17% | 29% | 3% | 15% | 5% | 2% | 18% | 0% | 17% | 28% | 31% | 13% | 11% |
| Another candidate | 8 | 0.7% | 91% | 9% | 10% | 9% | 0% | 81% | 79% | 0% | 21% | 0% | 10% | 36% | 0% | 0% | 9% | 45% | 21% | 60% | 9% | 10% | 0% | 24% | 0% | 10% | 0% | 57% | 0% | 9% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 60% | 19% | 21% | 0% |
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Q:3 What if your candidate quits?If your preferred candidate withdrew from active campaigning but remained on the ballot, would you:
No Data Found
| Gender % | Age % | Party % | Race % | County % | Income % | Education % | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Answer | Weighted N | Weighted % | Female | Male | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | Democratic | Republican | Non-Partisan | Other | White (non-Hispanic) | Black or African American | Hispanic or Latino | East or South Asian | Jewish | Other | BRONX | KINGS | NEWYORK | QUEENS | RICHMOND | Under $25,000 | $25,000 – $49,999 | $50,000 – $74,999 | $75,000 – $99,999 | $100,000 – $149,999 | $150,000 – $199,999 | $200,000 or more | Prefer not to say | Less than high school | High school diploma or GED | Some college / Associate degree | Bachelor’s degree | Graduate or professional degree | Prefer not to say |
| Vote for a different candidate | 256 | 50.9% | 50% | 50% | 9% | 20% | 38% | 33% | 52% | 26% | 18% | 4% | 46% | 11% | 20% | 6% | 12% | 5% | 17% | 23% | 20% | 25% | 15% | 4% | 11% | 14% | 16% | 22% | 9% | 9% | 15% | 2% | 21% | 18% | 40% | 16% | 4% |
| Still vote for them | 121 | 24.1% | 53% | 47% | 7% | 18% | 30% | 45% | 44% | 41% | 9% | 6% | 44% | 14% | 24% | 1% | 6% | 11% | 20% | 18% | 19% | 26% | 17% | 14% | 18% | 13% | 16% | 16% | 5% | 6% | 12% | 3% | 28% | 18% | 32% | 14% | 5% |
| Not sure | 85 | 16.9% | 56% | 44% | 1% | 7% | 37% | 55% | 60% | 26% | 9% | 5% | 46% | 23% | 20% | 2% | 2% | 8% | 11% | 17% | 16% | 38% | 18% | 12% | 9% | 24% | 6% | 19% | 9% | 4% | 17% | 0% | 28% | 15% | 29% | 17% | 11% |
| Not vote in the mayor's race | 41 | 8.1% | 60% | 40% | 5% | 17% | 31% | 46% | 52% | 33% | 13% | 3% | 41% | 23% | 27% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 17% | 42% | 18% | 15% | 9% | 14% | 21% | 15% | 24% | 13% | 5% | 5% | 4% | 0% | 27% | 30% | 27% | 16% | 0% |
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Q:4 Backup choice: Which candidate would you choose instead?
No Data Found
| Gender % | Age % | Party % | Race % | County % | Income % | Education % | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Answer | Weighted N | Weighted % | Female | Male | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | Democratic | Republican | Non-Partisan | Other | White (non-Hispanic) | Black or African American | Hispanic or Latino | East or South Asian | Jewish | Other | BRONX | KINGS | NEWYORK | QUEENS | RICHMOND | Under $25,000 | $25,000 – $49,999 | $50,000 – $74,999 | $75,000 – $99,999 | $100,000 – $149,999 | $150,000 – $199,999 | $200,000 or more | Prefer not to say | Less than high school | High school diploma or GED | Some college / Associate degree | Bachelor’s degree | Graduate or professional degree | Prefer not to say |
| Curtis Sliwa | 108 | 42.2% | 48% | 52% | 10% | 24% | 37% | 29% | 55% | 23% | 20% | 2% | 48% | 10% | 18% | 3% | 18% | 3% | 13% | 30% | 25% | 21% | 10% | 5% | 3% | 15% | 16% | 23% | 8% | 11% | 18% | 0.0% | 19% | 10% | 48% | 20% | 2% |
| Andrew Cuomo | 98 | 38.3% | 46% | 54% | 9% | 18% | 49% | 34% | 33% | 41% | 19% | 7% | 54% | 4% | 20% | 8% | 6% | 8% | 21% | 10% | 16% | 28% | 26% | 0% | 14% | 14% | 18% | 23% | 12% | 5% | 14% | 2% | 23% | 29% | 32% | 10% | 4% |
| Undecided | 16 | 6.3% | 79% | 21% | 10% | 10% | 6% | 74% | 79% | 8% | 7% | 6% | 49% | 20% | 24% | 3% | 5% | 0% | 17% | 33% | 37% | 13% | 0% | 17% | 22% | 8% | 11% | 21% | 10% | 3% | 9% | 0.0% | 24% | 27% | 18% | 32% | 0.0% |
| Zohran Mamdani | 23 | 8.8% | 55% | 45% | 0% | 24% | 61% | 16% | 85% | 3% | 12% | 0% | 15% | 50% | 14% | 0% | 12% | 8% | 12% | 31% | 4% | 46% | 6% | 12% | 37% | 9% | 8% | 20% | 6% | 8% | 0% | 12% | 12% | 9% | 43% | 7% | 16% |
| Another candidate | 11 | 4.3% | 53% | 47% | 16% | 11% | 36% | 37% | 86% | 0% | 11% | 3% | 15% | 0% | 31% | 23% | 31% | 0% | 25% | 41% | 16% | 18% | 0% | 0.0% | 0% | 32% | 10% | 6% | 0% | 22% | 30% | 0.0% | 25% | 0% | 57% | 18% | 0.0% |
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Q:5 Second-choice for mayor: If your first choice were not available, which candidate would be your second choice for mayor?
No Data Found
| Gender % | Age % | Party % | Race % | County % | Income % | Education % | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Answer | Weighted N | Weighted % | Female | Male | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | Democratic | Republican | Non-Partisan | Other | White (non-Hispanic) | Black or African American | Hispanic or Latino | East or South Asian | Jewish | Other | BRONX | KINGS | NEWYORK | QUEENS | RICHMOND | Under $25,000 | $25,000 – $49,999 | $50,000 – $74,999 | $75,000 – $99,999 | $100,000 – $149,999 | $150,000 – $199,999 | $200,000 or more | Prefer not to say | Less than high school | High school diploma or GED | Some college / Associate degree | Bachelor’s degree | Graduate or professional degree | Prefer not to say | ||||
| Undecided | 283 | 27.3% | 57% | 43% | 20% | 20% | 16% | 44% | 80% | 10% | 7% | 4% | 41% | 26% | 17% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 19% | 30% | 20% | 24% | 7% | 11% | 18% | 12% | 15% | 19% | 10% | 6% | 9% | 1% | 14% | 21% | 41% | 19% | 4% | ||||
| Curtis Sliwa | 214 | 20.6% | 49% | 51% | 12% | 26% | 31% | 31% | 58% | 21% | 18% | 3% | 44% | 13% | 22% | 5% | 10% | 5% | 16% | 29% | 23% | 25% | 7% | 9% | 7% | 17% | 14% | 23% | 8% | 9% | 14% | 1% | 22% | 15% | 41% | 17% | 3% | ||||
| Another candidate | 264 | 25.4% | 57% | 43% | 18% | 22% | 32% | 28% | 76% | 10% | 10% | 3% | 42% | 20% | 15% | 8% | 8% | 7% | 9% | 38% | 22% | 23% | 8% | 5% | 15% | 16% | 14% | 17% | 12% | 8% | 12% | 1% | 9% | 20% | 46% | 20% | 3% | ||||
| Andrew Cuomo | 222 | 21.4% | 56% | 44% | 7% | 21% | 32% | 40% | 55% | 28% | 12% | 4% | 41% | 20% | 20% | 5% | 8% | 7% | 19% | 20% | 16% | 31% | 14% | 6% | 13% | 18% | 13% | 21% | 9% | 7% | 14% | 2% | 21% | 29% | 29% | 14% | 5% | ||||
| Zohran Mamdani | 56 | 5.4% | 58% | 42% | 5% | 20% | 52% | 23% | 94% | 1% | 5% | 0% | 17% | 47% | 25% | 1% | 5% | 4% | 15% | 44% | 11% | 23% | 7% | 9% | 22% | 18% | 6% | 37% | 2% | 6% | 1% | 5% | 15% | 11% | 52% | 9% | 8% | ||||
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The Data is Not Available
Q:6 Favorable/Unfavorable — Zohran Mamdani
No Data Found
| Gender % | Age % | Party % | Race % | County % | Income % | Education % | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Answer | Weighted N | Weighted % | Female | Male | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | Democratic | Republican | Non-Partisan | Other | White (non-Hispanic) | Black or African American | Hispanic or Latino | East or South Asian | Jewish | Other | BRONX | KINGS | NEWYORK | QUEENS | RICHMOND | Under $25,000 | $25,000 – $49,999 | $50,000 – $74,999 | $75,000 – $99,999 | $100,000 – $149,999 | $150,000 – $199,999 | $200,000 or more | Prefer not to say | Less than high school | High school diploma or GED | Some college / Associate degree | Bachelor’s degree | Graduate or professional degree | Prefer not to say |
| Very Favorable | 378 | 36.3% | 54% | 46% | 24% | 27% | 24% | 24% | 89% | 1% | 8% | 2% | 38% | 26% | 17% | 7% | 7% | 5% | 15% | 36% | 22% | 24% | 3% | 8% | 15% | 13% | 15% | 22% | 13% | 7% | 7% | 3% | 7% | 20% | 50% | 19% | 1% |
| Somewhat favorable | 119 | 11.5% | 56% | 44% | 14% | 27% | 25% | 34% | 83% | 5% | 8% | 4% | 33% | 33% | 15% | 9% | 8% | 3% | 10% | 43% | 14% | 31% | 2% | 7% | 20% | 21% | 7% | 26% | 5% | 8% | 7% | 0% | 9% | 25% | 44% | 18% | 4% |
| Neutral | 73 | 7.1% | 56% | 44% | 4% | 16% | 34% | 45% | 83% | 2% | 14% | 1% | 14% | 46% | 28% | 4% | 1% | 7% | 26% | 35% | 13% | 20% | 6% | 10% | 8% | 25% | 9% | 22% | 6% | 3% | 16% | 0% | 19% | 30% | 29% | 14% | 8% |
| Somewhat unfavorable | 57 | 5.4% | 64% | 36% | 10% | 12% | 26% | 52% | 80% | 10% | 9% | 1% | 40% | 40% | 4% | 6% | 7% | 3% | 13% | 30% | 27% | 25% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 13% | 16% | 26% | 6% | 12% | 17% | 0% | 13% | 13% | 36% | 31% | 7% |
| Very Unfavorable | 413 | 39.7% | 55% | 45% | 7% | 17% | 33% | 42% | 45% | 35% | 15% | 6% | 50% | 9% | 21% | 4% | 9% | 8% | 16% | 20% | 20% | 26% | 17% | 9% | 13% | 16% | 15% | 17% | 9% | 7% | 15% | 1% | 26% | 20% | 34% | 14% | 5% |
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The Data is Not Available
Q:7 Favorable/Unfavorable — Curtis Sliwa
No Data Found
| Gender % | Age % | Party % | Race % | County % | Income % | Education % | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Answer | Weighted N | Weighted % | Female | Male | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | Democratic | Republican | Non-Partisan | Other | White (non-Hispanic) | Black or African American | Hispanic or Latino | East or South Asian | Jewish | Other | BRONX | KINGS | NEWYORK | QUEENS | RICHMOND | Under $25,000 | $25,000 – $49,999 | $50,000 – $74,999 | $75,000 – $99,999 | $100,000 – $149,999 | $150,000 – $199,999 | $200,000 or more | Prefer not to say | Less than high school | High school diploma or GED | Some college / Associate degree | Bachelor’s degree | Graduate or professional degree | Prefer not to say |
| Very Favorable | 213 | 20.5% | 55% | 45% | 7% | 15% | 34% | 45% | 34% | 45% | 13% | 8% | 55% | 8% | 19% | 5% | 4% | 9% | 18% | 16% | 11% | 30% | 26% | 9% | 15% | 18% | 19% | 17% | 8% | 3% | 9% | 2% | 26% | 22% | 34% | 10% | 6% |
| Somewhat favorable | 153 | 14.8% | 49% | 51% | 9% | 23% | 33% | 35% | 63% | 22% | 14% | 1% | 36% | 15% | 28% | 5% | 10% | 6% | 17% | 24% | 26% | 26% | 6% | 5% | 16% | 19% | 14% | 18% | 6% | 8% | 14% | 2% | 27% | 15% | 38% | 17% | 1% |
| Neutral | 181 | 17.4% | 48% | 52% | 19% | 25% | 27% | 28% | 70% | 9% | 17% | 4% | 33% | 29% | 15% | 8% | 6% | 9% | 20% | 32% | 18% | 26% | 4% | 10% | 10% | 13% | 9% | 28% | 8% | 8% | 12% | 2% | 15% | 26% | 36% | 16% | 5% |
| Somewhat unfavorable | 198 | 19.1% | 60% | 40% | 18% | 18% | 27% | 37% | 84% | 5% | 9% | 2% | 44% | 30% | 12% | 6% | 6% | 2% | 12% | 38% | 20% | 25% | 5% | 6% | 12% | 16% | 12% | 21% | 13% | 8% | 13% | 0% | 10% | 16% | 48% | 22% | 4% |
| Very Unfavorable | 294 | 28.3% | 59% | 41% | 16% | 26% | 25% | 33% | 90% | 2% | 6% | 2% | 35% | 26% | 19% | 5% | 11% | 4% | 13% | 38% | 25% | 21% | 3% | 9% | 16% | 13% | 13% | 19% | 10% | 8% | 10% | 1% | 9% | 23% | 44% | 19% | 3% |
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The Data is Not Available
Q:8 Favorable/Unfavorable — Andrew Cuomo
No Data Found
| Gender % | Age % | Party % | Race % | County % | Income % | Education % | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Answer | Weighted N | Weighted % | Female | Male | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | Democratic | Republican | Non-Partisan | Other | White (non-Hispanic) | Black or African American | Hispanic or Latino | East or South Asian | Jewish | Other | BRONX | KINGS | NEWYORK | QUEENS | RICHMOND | Under $25,000 | $25,000 – $49,999 | $50,000 – $74,999 | $75,000 – $99,999 | $100,000 – $149,999 | $150,000 – $199,999 | $200,000 or more | Prefer not to say | Less than high school | High school diploma or GED | Some college / Associate degree | Bachelor’s degree | Graduate or professional degree | Prefer not to say |
| Very Favorable | 182 | 17.5% | 60% | 40% | 3% | 13% | 47% | 37% | 75% | 8% | 13% | 4% | 25% | 26% | 35% | 3% | 7% | 3% | 21% | 27% | 22% | 27% | 3% | 13% | 19% | 14% | 16% | 14% | 7% | 5% | 13% | 5% | 24% | 18% | 29% | 18% | 5% |
| Somewhat favorable | 200 | 19.2% | 60% | 40% | 7% | 21% | 23% | 49% | 70% | 17% | 10% | 3% | 44% | 21% | 18% | 5% | 7% | 5% | 19% | 28% | 19% | 25% | 10% | 6% | 9% | 17% | 14% | 24% | 5% | 10% | 14% | 0% | 18% | 26% | 37% | 17% | 2% |
| Neutral | 154 | 14.8% | 50% | 50% | 12% | 13% | 34% | 42% | 49% | 29% | 17% | 5% | 36% | 22% | 14% | 9% | 9% | 10% | 11% | 25% | 17% | 33% | 14% | 7% | 19% | 20% | 10% | 22% | 7% | 4% | 12% | 0% | 29% | 18% | 30% | 12% | 10% |
| Somewhat unfavorable | 160 | 15.4% | 56% | 44% | 11% | 22% | 20% | 47% | 63% | 21% | 12% | 4% | 50% | 21% | 16% | 3% | 6% | 5% | 17% | 29% | 17% | 22% | 14% | 6% | 14% | 10% | 17% | 22% | 10% | 8% | 12% | 2% | 11% | 25% | 42% | 20% | 1% |
| Very Unfavorable | 344 | 33.0% | 52% | 48% | 27% | 31% | 24% | 19% | 80% | 11% | 7% | 2% | 45% | 20% | 13% | 8% | 8% | 6% | 12% | 37% | 23% | 23% | 6% | 8% | 12% | 17% | 12% | 21% | 14% | 8% | 8% | 1% | 8% | 18% | 53% | 17% | 3% |
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Q:9 Top issues: share of respondents selecting each
No Data Found
| Gender % | Age % | Party % | Race % | County % | Income % | Education % | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Answer | Weighted N | Weighted % | Female | Male | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | Democratic | Republican | Non-Partisan | Other | White (non-Hispanic) | Black or African American | Hispanic or Latino | East or South Asian | Jewish | Other | BRONX | KINGS | NEWYORK | QUEENS | RICHMOND | Under $25,000 | $25,000 – $49,999 | $50,000 – $74,999 | $75,000 – $99,999 | $100,000 – $149,999 | $150,000 – $199,999 | $200,000 or more | Prefer not to say | Less than high school | High school diploma or GED | Some college / Associate degree | Bachelor’s degree | Graduate or professional degree | Prefer not to say |
| Cost of living | 662 | 63.6% | 59% | 41% | 18% | 24% | 25% | 33% | 74% | 11% | 11% | 3% | 39% | 25% | 19% | 6% | 5% | 5% | 17% | 32% | 19% | 26% | 6% | 10% | 16% | 16% | 12% | 20% | 9% | 8% | 9% | 2% | 15% | 21% | 42% | 16% | 4% |
| Public safety | 505 | 48.6% | 53% | 47% | 9% | 21% | 32% | 37% | 56% | 24% | 16% | 4% | 41% | 15% | 20% | 5% | 11% | 7% | 19% | 26% | 18% | 26% | 10% | 5% | 10% | 18% | 13% | 18% | 9% | 9% | 17% | 1% | 18% | 21% | 39% | 18% | 4% |
| Housing affordability | 405 | 38.9% | 57% | 43% | 20% | 28% | 27% | 26% | 80% | 7% | 12% | 1% | 35% | 29% | 20% | 6% | 5% | 5% | 15% | 37% | 22% | 24% | 3% | 9% | 15% | 19% | 15% | 19% | 9% | 7% | 8% | 3% | 15% | 20% | 42% | 17% | 3% |
| Finding and keeping affordable healthcare | 278 | 26.7% | 69% | 31% | 12% | 13% | 24% | 51% | 83% | 8% | 4% | 4% | 41% | 28% | 15% | 4% | 5% | 5% | 14% | 34% | 19% | 25% | 9% | 11% | 17% | 16% | 12% | 25% | 6% | 4% | 9% | 1% | 11% | 20% | 45% | 15% | 8% |
| Services to help older residents remain in their homes as they age | 173 | 16.6% | 67% | 33% | 4% | 7% | 22% | 68% | 69% | 18% | 7% | 6% | 37% | 26% | 21% | 4% | 7% | 5% | 18% | 26% | 21% | 25% | 11% | 14% | 25% | 14% | 10% | 15% | 7% | 2% | 12% | 0% | 16% | 30% | 26% | 21% | 7% |
| Public transportation access and affordability | 197 | 18.9% | 56% | 44% | 28% | 24% | 23% | 25% | 86% | 6% | 5% | 3% | 46% | 20% | 14% | 6% | 11% | 3% | 12% | 37% | 25% | 21% | 5% | 7% | 11% | 14% | 16% | 17% | 15% | 10% | 10% | 1% | 9% | 12% | 54% | 22% | 2% |
| Better jobs and economic opportunities | 190 | 18.3% | 51% | 49% | 20% | 31% | 28% | 21% | 67% | 20% | 12% | 1% | 38% | 24% | 15% | 8% | 11% | 5% | 12% | 37% | 20% | 22% | 9% | 4% | 13% | 15% | 9% | 20% | 13% | 12% | 14% | 0% | 18% | 14% | 45% | 23% | 1% |
| Utility and energy costs | 192 | 18.4% | 52% | 48% | 7% | 22% | 29% | 41% | 61% | 26% | 8% | 6% | 57% | 14% | 12% | 4% | 6% | 7% | 14% | 23% | 11% | 33% | 19% | 6% | 7% | 15% | 11% | 30% | 8% | 7% | 17% | 2% | 18% | 20% | 38% | 17% | 5% |
| Other | 76 | 7.3% | 37% | 63% | 7% | 13% | 54% | 26% | 65% | 19% | 10% | 5% | 43% | 5% | 21% | 9% | 17% | 5% | 12% | 21% | 22% | 36% | 9% | 12% | 4% | 7% | 13% | 31% | 9% | 10% | 14% | 0% | 28% | 12% | 37% | 19% | 5% |
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Q:10 Leadership style:Which approach to city leadership do you prefer?
No Data Found
| Gender % | Age % | Party % | Race % | County % | Income % | Education % | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Answer | Weighted N | Weighted % | Female | Male | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | Democratic | Republican | Non-Partisan | Other | White (non-Hispanic) | Black or African American | Hispanic or Latino | East or South Asian | Jewish | Other | BRONX | KINGS | NEWYORK | QUEENS | RICHMOND | Under $25,000 | $25,000 – $49,999 | $50,000 – $74,999 | $75,000 – $99,999 | $100,000 – $149,999 | $150,000 – $199,999 | $200,000 or more | Prefer not to say | Less than high school | High school diploma or GED | Some college / Associate degree | Bachelor’s degree | Graduate or professional degree | Prefer not to say |
| A mayor who focuses on improving existing systems | 483 | 46.4% | 57% | 43% | 10% | 17% | 31% | 42% | 72% | 14% | 11% | 3% | 37% | 24% | 20% | 4% | 8% | 7% | 15% | 31% | 21% | 27% | 5% | 7% | 16% | 17% | 13% | 21% | 8% | 7% | 11% | 3% | 16% | 19% | 40% | 19% | 4% |
| A mayor who pursues major policy changes | 358 | 34.4% | 52% | 48% | 24% | 29% | 23% | 24% | 73% | 11% | 14% | 2% | 44% | 17% | 19% | 8% | 7% | 4% | 16% | 32% | 19% | 25% | 8% | 10% | 12% | 14% | 13% | 20% | 13% | 9% | 9% | 0% | 10% | 21% | 47% | 17% | 4% |
| Neither of these approaches appeal to me | 200 | 19.2% | 56% | 44% | 7% | 20% | 33% | 40% | 59% | 29% | 6% | 6% | 44% | 24% | 14% | 5% | 8% | 6% | 16% | 26% | 19% | 22% | 17% | 7% | 13% | 16% | 16% | 20% | 7% | 4% | 16% | 0% | 27% | 25% | 30% | 14% | 4% |
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Q:11 Voting strategy: What best describes your approach to choosing a candidate?
No Data Found
| Gender % | Age % | Party % | Race % | County % | Income % | Education % | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Answer | Weighted N | Weighted % | Female | Male | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | Democratic | Republican | Non-Partisan | Other | White (non-Hispanic) | Black or African American | Hispanic or Latino | East or South Asian | Jewish | Other | BRONX | KINGS | NEWYORK | QUEENS | RICHMOND | Under $25,000 | $25,000 – $49,999 | $50,000 – $74,999 | $75,000 – $99,999 | $100,000 – $149,999 | $150,000 – $199,999 | $200,000 or more | Prefer not to say | Less than high school | High school diploma or GED | Some college / Associate degree | Bachelor’s degree | Graduate or professional degree | Prefer not to say | ||
| I choose based on who can bring change | 276 | 26.5% | 57% | 43% | 13% | 20% | 30% | 37% | 71% | 17% | 9% | 3% | 25% | 29% | 29% | 5% | 4% | 9% | 21% | 32% | 15% | 24% | 8% | 17% | 18% | 20% | 10% | 17% | 4% | 4% | 10% | 3% | 19% | 26% | 28% | 16% | 8% | ||
| I choose the candidate closest to my views | 727 | 69.9% | 55% | 45% | 14% | 23% | 28% | 35% | 70% | 15% | 12% | 4% | 47% | 20% | 14% | 6% | 8% | 5% | 14% | 29% | 22% | 26% | 9% | 5% | 13% | 14% | 15% | 22% | 11% | 8% | 11% | 0% | 15% | 19% | 45% | 18% | 2% | ||
| I choose based on who can win | 37 | 3.5% | 40% | 60% | 20% | 16% | 26% | 38% | 63% | 22% | 15% | 0% | 36% | 14% | 14% | 5% | 24% | 7% | 0% | 49% | 13% | 24% | 15% | 8% | 7% | 9% | 15% | 15% | 11% | 10% | 26% | 8% | 23% | 14% | 44% | 11% | 1% | ||
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Q:12 Right Track / Wrong Track:How do you feel about the direction New York City is headed?
No Data Found
| Gender % | Age % | Party % | Race % | County % | Income % | Education % | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Answer | Weighted N | Weighted % | Female | Male | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | Democratic | Republican | Non-Partisan | Other | White (non-Hispanic) | Black or African American | Hispanic or Latino | East or South Asian | Jewish | Other | BRONX | KINGS | NEWYORK | QUEENS | RICHMOND | Under $25,000 | $25,000 – $49,999 | $50,000 – $74,999 | $75,000 – $99,999 | $100,000 – $149,999 | $150,000 – $199,999 | $200,000 or more | Prefer not to say | Less than high school | High school diploma or GED | Some college / Associate degree | Bachelor’s degree | Graduate or professional degree | Prefer not to say |
| Right direction | 96 | 9.2% | 46% | 54% | 25% | 26% | 23% | 26% | 79% | 7% | 12% | 1% | 32% | 29% | 23% | 8% | 4% | 3% | 14% | 35% | 15% | 36% | 1% | 17% | 8% | 10% | 9% | 26% | 10% | 11% | 9% | 3% | 13% | 13% | 45% | 17% | 8% |
| Wrong direction | 579 | 55.7% | 56% | 44% | 13% | 21% | 29% | 38% | 62% | 23% | 11% | 4% | 43% | 19% | 20% | 6% | 7% | 6% | 16% | 28% | 19% | 24% | 13% | 8% | 15% | 18% | 14% | 19% | 9% | 4% | 12% | 1% | 19% | 23% | 40% | 13% | 4% |
| Mixed/Neither | 321 | 30.9% | 54% | 46% | 14% | 23% | 28% | 35% | 79% | 8% | 10% | 3% | 40% | 23% | 15% | 5% | 10% | 6% | 15% | 33% | 22% | 25% | 5% | 6% | 13% | 13% | 15% | 21% | 10% | 11% | 10% | 2% | 13% | 18% | 42% | 24% | 2% |
| No opinion | 43 | 4.2% | 66% | 34% | 13% | 19% | 36% | 32% | 88% | 1% | 8% | 3% | 28% | 40% | 12% | 7% | 3% | 10% | 17% | 27% | 22% | 32% | 2% | 3% | 18% | 18% | 11% | 26% | 6% | 6% | 13% | 0% | 13% | 25% | 26% | 23% | 13% |
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Q:13 Future Outlook: How do you feel about New York City's future?
No Data Found
| Gender % | Age % | Party % | Race % | County % | Income % | Education % | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Answer | Weighted N | Weighted % | Female | Male | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | Democratic | Republican | Non-Partisan | Other | White (non-Hispanic) | Black or African American | Hispanic or Latino | East or South Asian | Jewish | Other | BRONX | KINGS | NEWYORK | QUEENS | RICHMOND | Under $25,000 | $25,000 – $49,999 | $50,000 – $74,999 | $75,000 – $99,999 | $100,000 – $149,999 | $150,000 – $199,999 | $200,000 or more | Prefer not to say | Less than high school | High school diploma or GED | Some college / Associate degree | Bachelor’s degree | Graduate or professional degree | Prefer not to say |
| Very optimistic — with the right leadership, things can improve | 370 | 35.6% | 58% | 42% | 16% | 25% | 28% | 31% | 77% | 11% | 9% | 3% | 37% | 21% | 24% | 8% | 6% | 5% | 19% | 34% | 18% | 26% | 4% | 8% | 17% | 15% | 13% | 21% | 12% | 7% | 8% | 2% | 15% | 20% | 43% | 17% | 3% |
| Somewhat optimistic — I’m not sure who to trust, but I haven’t given up | 274 | 26.3% | 58% | 42% | 16% | 23% | 19% | 42% | 79% | 9% | 9% | 4% | 40% | 28% | 13% | 5% | 8% | 6% | 14% | 33% | 18% | 27% | 8% | 9% | 10% | 17% | 13% | 21% | 9% | 9% | 12% | 1% | 14% | 20% | 41% | 19% | 5% |
| Very pessimistic — NYC’s future looks bleak no matter who the next mayor is | 65 | 6.3% | 37% | 63% | 10% | 20% | 39% | 31% | 55% | 30% | 9% | 7% | 33% | 37% | 13% | 6% | 6% | 4% | 10% | 33% | 20% | 14% | 23% | 10% | 28% | 14% | 7% | 23% | 8% | 3% | 8% | 0% | 30% | 19% | 38% | 10% | 3% |
| Somewhat pessimistic — the city is headed in the wrong direction | 221 | 21.3% | 52% | 48% | 12% | 20% | 37% | 31% | 49% | 31% | 16% | 4% | 48% | 10% | 21% | 5% | 9% | 8% | 15% | 21% | 22% | 28% | 14% | 6% | 12% | 14% | 15% | 21% | 10% | 6% | 17% | 2% | 22% | 22% | 37% | 15% | 3% |
| Neither optimistic nor pessimistic – I am not sure | 109 | 10.5% | 56% | 44% | 10% | 15% | 29% | 46% | 74% | 10% | 14% | 2% | 44% | 26% | 11% | 1% | 10% | 7% | 11% | 31% | 27% | 21% | 9% | 12% | 11% | 22% | 17% | 18% | 2% | 9% | 11% | 0% | 8% | 25% | 41% | 20% | 7% |
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Q:14 Preferred Voting Method: How do you plan to vote in the mayoral election?
No Data Found
| Gender % | Age % | Party % | Race % | County % | Income % | Education % | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Answer | Weighted N | Weighted % | Female | Male | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | Democratic | Republican | Non-Partisan | Other | White (non-Hispanic) | Black or African American | Hispanic or Latino | East or South Asian | Jewish | Other | BRONX | KINGS | NEWYORK | QUEENS | RICHMOND | Under $25,000 | $25,000 – $49,999 | $50,000 – $74,999 | $75,000 – $99,999 | $100,000 – $149,999 | $150,000 – $199,999 | $200,000 or more | Prefer not to say | Less than high school | High school diploma or GED | Some college / Associate degree | Bachelor’s degree | Graduate or professional degree | Prefer not to say |
| On Election Day at a polling place | 527 | 50.7% | 51% | 49% | 10% | 23% | 32% | 35% | 62% | 21% | 13% | 5% | 44% | 21% | 19% | 5% | 6% | 6% | 18% | 28% | 17% | 27% | 10% | 8% | 16% | 18% | 12% | 22% | 8% | 6% | 10% | 1% | 22% | 24% | 34% | 16% | 3% |
| During the early voting period | 374 | 36.0% | 60% | 40% | 18% | 22% | 24% | 35% | 80% | 10% | 9% | 2% | 42% | 22% | 14% | 7% | 9% | 6% | 11% | 35% | 24% | 24% | 6% | 6% | 11% | 12% | 17% | 20% | 11% | 9% | 15% | 0% | 11% | 15% | 52% | 18% | 4% |
| Haven't decided yet | 62 | 6.0% | 69% | 31% | 20% | 23% | 30% | 27% | 71% | 11% | 15% | 4% | 16% | 25% | 25% | 11% | 12% | 11% | 14% | 41% | 15% | 27% | 4% | 15% | 12% | 21% | 9% | 23% | 2% | 10% | 8% | 2% | 5% | 35% | 33% | 16% | 8% |
| By absentee ballot | 67 | 6.4% | 52% | 48% | 17% | 9% | 23% | 51% | 73% | 15% | 10% | 3% | 32% | 27% | 27% | 4% | 9% | 1% | 26% | 15% | 24% | 19% | 16% | 8% | 19% | 11% | 17% | 14% | 18% | 7% | 5% | 4% | 10% | 19% | 42% | 25% | 0% |
| Other | 10 | 1.0% | 10% | 90% | 0% | 6% | 56% | 38% | 100% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 10% | 28% | 56% | 0% | 0% | 6% | 28% | 34% | 10% | 28% | 0% | 56% | 0% | 28% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 16% | 28% | 28% | 10% | 0% | 0% | 34% |
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Q:15 Political identity: How would you describe your political views?
No Data Found
| Gender % | Age % | Party % | Race % | County % | Income % | Education % | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Answer | Weighted N | Weighted % | Female | Male | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | Democratic | Republican | Non-Partisan | Other | White (non-Hispanic) | Black or African American | Hispanic or Latino | East or South Asian | Jewish | Other | BRONX | KINGS | NEWYORK | QUEENS | RICHMOND | Under $25,000 | $25,000 – $49,999 | $50,000 – $74,999 | $75,000 – $99,999 | $100,000 – $149,999 | $150,000 – $199,999 | $200,000 or more | Prefer not to say | Less than high school | High school diploma or GED | Some college / Associate degree | Bachelor’s degree | Graduate or professional degree | Prefer not to say |
| Very liberal | 243.1576874 | 23.4% | 54% | 46% | 31% | 28% | 18% | 23% | 93% | 1% | 5% | 1% | 41% | 24% | 16% | 8% | 7% | 4% | 15% | 40% | 22% | 21% | 2% | 10% | 15% | 12% | 14% | 24% | 12% | 6% | 7% | 2% | 11% | 16% | 52% | 19% | 0% |
| Somewhat liberal | 199.28164 | 19.2% | 61% | 39% | 14% | 18% | 27% | 41% | 92% | 2% | 4% | 1% | 41% | 26% | 14% | 6% | 10% | 3% | 14% | 32% | 25% | 22% | 6% | 4% | 13% | 16% | 11% | 24% | 9% | 12% | 11% | 0% | 8% | 18% | 49% | 22% | 3% |
| Moderate / centrist | 201.241052 | 19.4% | 49% | 51% | 9% | 25% | 32% | 34% | 61% | 15% | 20% | 5% | 44% | 19% | 14% | 5% | 12% | 7% | 9% | 26% | 29% | 30% | 7% | 5% | 14% | 9% | 13% | 25% | 10% | 9% | 14% | 0% | 13% | 20% | 39% | 23% | 5% |
| No particular preference | 154.5041516 | 14.9% | 64% | 36% | 8% | 18% | 37% | 36% | 65% | 14% | 16% | 5% | 23% | 33% | 24% | 7% | 5% | 8% | 20% | 37% | 11% | 22% | 9% | 11% | 14% | 29% | 14% | 12% | 6% | 2% | 14% | 3% | 21% | 28% | 33% | 7% | 8% |
| Somewhat conservative | 157.1547234 | 15.1% | 53% | 47% | 5% | 20% | 38% | 36% | 46% | 37% | 13% | 5% | 45% | 15% | 25% | 3% | 3% | 8% | 23% | 18% | 18% | 28% | 12% | 11% | 12% | 14% | 19% | 17% | 8% | 7% | 13% | 3% | 27% | 22% | 31% | 12% | 4% |
| Very conservative | 84.66074567 | 8.1% | 47% | 53% | 6% | 12% | 23% | 59% | 29% | 55% | 10% | 6% | 54% | 9% | 24% | 4% | 3% | 6% | 14% | 20% | 1% | 33% | 31% | 9% | 18% | 22% | 10% | 17% | 10% | 4% | 10% | 1% | 30% | 27% | 22% | 13% | 7% |
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Methods & Transparency NYC Mayor General Election Survey of Voters 18+, October 2025
Sponsor & Fielding
- Sponsor: AARP
Conducted by: Gotham Polling & Analytics
Mode & language: SMS invitations to a self-administered web survey (English only)
Field date: October 14-15, 2025
Average questionnaire time: 2 minutes 36 seconds.
Population, Frame, and Sample
- Population: Likely voters registered in New York City (five boroughs), age 18+.
Sampling frame: L2 voter file of registered voters in NYC (five boroughs) with matched mobile
numbers (N=4,745,759).
Sample design: Random selection of 80,000 records from the frame (stratified by Age Range
(birth-year), Voter Gender, and Party description).
Invitations sent: 79,489 SMS
Dispositions (AAPOR-style mapping)
- Complete interviews (I): 1,040
Partial interviews (P): 252
Screened ineligible (NE): 48 (not likely to vote)
Refusals (R): 2,890 (“do not text”)
Other eligible non-interview (O): 355 (DNC + other replies)
Undelivered (UH): 3,533
Delivered (approx.): 67,010
Non-contact (NC): 83,274 (Delivered – (I+P+R+O))
Outcome Rates (AAPOR Standard Definitions; RR3 uses ê for UH)
ê (eligibility rate among known) = 0.954
RR1 = 0.012 • RR3 = 0.012
COOP1 = 0.229 • CON1 = 0.0545 • REF1 = 0.037
Weighting
- Variables: gender, age, party registration, race, county, household income, and education.
Targets: NYC general-election voter distributions (2021 & 2022).
Method: iterative proportional fiting (raking), then normalization. Final reporting uses the
“Normalized Weight” in SurveyData.
Trimming: weights winsorized at CapMultiplier × median (final weight) with CapMultiplier=4.0
by default; renormalized to mean=1.
Diagnostics: Based on the current cap in the Weights sheet, DEFF » 1.73 and n_eff » 600; 95%
MOE near 50% » ±4.0 points (within-frame).
Questionnaire & Routing
- Full question wording and response options are provided in the attached Questionnaire PDF
(exact text as displayed in data headers).
Key skips (summary): “Backup choice” was asked after vote intention; results include modeled “dropout scenarios” that reallocate first-choice votes to each respondent’s backup choice.
Respondents who remained undecided, selected “another candidate,” provided no backup, or
backed a candidate who also dropped remain in the “Undecided + Another” bucket.
Quality Controls & Limitations
- Quality: de-duplication by L2ID/device/IP; speed checks; straight-line flags; geofencing to NYC;
termination of unlikely voters (n=48).
Coverage: registered voters with matched mobile numbers; nonresponse and measurement
error are possible; SMS-to-web mode effects may occur.
Interpretation of modeled scenarios: “dropout scenario” head-to-heads are modeled
outcomes, not observed elections.
Dropout Scenario Modeling
The survey included two “dropout” scenarios to model potential two-way runoffs should a major candidate exit the race. Results are weighted to the full analytic base (N = 1,040) and reflect respondents’ stated backup or second-choice preferences.
Scenario 1 – Cuomo Drops (Mamdani vs. Sliwa)
This scenario redistributes respondents who originally supported Andrew Cuomo based on their stated backup or second-choice candidate.
- Mamdani % includes: original Mamdani voters + Cuomo voters whose backup was Mamdani + Undecided/Another voters who listed Mamdani as their second choice.
- Sliwa % includes: original Sliwa voters + Cuomo voters whose backup was Sliwa + Undecided/Another voters who listed Sliwa as their second choice.
- Undecided + Another % includes everyone else (Cuomo voters with no or non-matching backup choice, and undecideds who did not lean to either).
Scenario 2 – Sliwa Drops (Mamdani vs. Cuomo)
This scenario redistributes respondents who originally supported Curtis Sliwa based on their stated backup or second-choice candidate.
- Mamdani % includes: original Mamdani voters + Sliwa voters whose backup was Mamdani + Undecided/Another voters who listed Mamdani as their second choice.
- Cuomo % includes: original Cuomo voters + Sliwa voters whose backup was Cuomo + Undecided/Another voters who listed Cuomo as their second choice.
- Undecided + Another % includes all remaining respondents with no or unrelated backup choice.
Each row’s demographic percentages represent weighted shares within that candidate’s support group (weighted base = 1,040).
Contact:
Gotham Polling & Analytics
[email protected]
htps://gothampolling.com/
“Precision Polling for Data-Driven Political Strategies”