Democrat Laura Guillen’s Chances of Flipping New York’s 4th House Seat, According to the Latest Polls

New York’s 4th Congressional District is set to feature one of the Lower House’s most competitive races, as Democrat Laura Guillen has a solid chance of flipping the seat currently held by Republican incumbent Anthony D’Esposito.

A Newsday/Siena poll showed Guillen leading by a large, two-digit, margin: while another from Gotham Polling & Analytics indicates a much tighter race.The Newsday/Siena poll, which surveyed 532 likely voters between October 13 and 17, shows Guillen with 53% of the support, compared to D’Esposito’s 41%. The survey’s analysis suggests that Guillen’s momentum is largely driven by the expected influence of the presidential race on local races.Don Levy, director of the Siena College Research Institute, told Politico that the poll reflects a potential return to historical voting patterns in the district. Four years ago, President Joe Biden won the area by 15 points, which could bode well for Guillen, who is gaining traction as the election nears.

However, Lawrence Levy, a political analyst, cautioned that the diverse makeup of the 4th Congressional District complicates the polling landscape. He pointed out that communities like the predominantly Jewish areas in the five towns often register as Democrats but typically lean Republican during elections, according to the outlet. Additionally, while Black communities like Hempstead and Freeport contribute significantly to the district’s demographics, they historically vote in lower numbers.

In contrast, the Gotham poll paints a different picture. Conducted between October 11 and 19 among 734 likely voters, it describes the race as a “toss-up” and within the margin of error. GOP incumbent, D’Esposito is facing scrutiny after reportedly hiring a mistress to work in his office for a $2,000 a month salary. He has denied all allegations, saying that “the political tabloid garbage being peddled by The New York Times is nothing more than a slimy, partisan ‘hit piece’ designed to distract Long Islanders from Democrats’ failing record on border security, the economy, and foreign policy.” About 6% of respondents are still undecided, as reported by the New York Post.The varied results of these polls highlight the uncertainty surrounding the race as early voting begins on Saturday in New York. Both candidates are focused on mobilizing their supporters to the polls. Guillen and D’Esposito have downplayed their positions in the polls, acknowledging that voter turnout will be crucial in this competitive district.