NH JOURNAL: POLL SHOCKER: John E. Sununu, Pappas in Statistical Dead Heat for U.S. Senate

A potential U.S. Senate race between Rep. Chris Pappas (D-N.H.) and former GOP Sen. John E. Sununu is already a statistical dead heat even before the first political shot has been fired, a new poll shows.

The results, first reported by Punchbowl News, give Pappas a narrow lead of 45 to 43 percent, well within the poll’s 4.4 percent margin of error.

“Former U.S. Senator John E. Sununu’s entry into the New Hampshire Senate race would flip the script and make this a top Republican pickup opportunity in the midterms,” according to the memo from the GOP polling firm 1892. “If Sununu runs, Chris Pappas will be in for the fight of his political career.”

Sununu, brother of former Gov. Chris Sununu and son of former Gov. John H. Sununu, announced last week he is seriously considering entering the race and will make a final decision by the end of October. Former ambassador and U.S. Sen. Scott Brown and state Sen. Dan Innis (R-Bradford) are already running in the primary.

Pappas has one Democratic primary opponent thus far, science writer and progressive activist Karishma Manzur, Ph.D.

New Hampshire has not elected a GOP U.S. Senate candidate since 2010.

According to the polling memo:

• Sununu would win the critical Independent vote, 41-40% (+1%).

• Among voters who have “heard of both” candidates, Sununu and Pappas are tied 45-45%. Among voters who have an “opinion of both” candidates, Sununu would lead 47-46% (+1%).
• Undecideds voted for President Trump by +8% and favor a generic Republican by +13%.
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The poll also finds Sununu with a net positive approval rating: 35 percent of likely voters have a favorable view of Sununu, 24 percent are unfavorable, and 27 percent are undecided.

“Should Sununu return to politics, he would single-handedly change the trajectory of the New Hampshire Senate race,” the memo adds.

New Hampshire native Denny Salas, co-founder of Gotham Polling & Analytics, told Newsweek the Sununu name could be enough to make the race competitive.

“The Sununu family is to New Hampshire what the Kennedys are to Massachusetts and the Bushes are to Texas—a true political dynasty,” Salas said. “John [E.] Sununu has a great opportunity to win this U.S. Senate race in a purple state that sometimes swings depending on the current political climate.

Meanwhile, a “Draft John E. Sununu” webpage has appeared on Facebook and Twitter/X, urging Granite Staters to “sign our petition now to add your name to Draft John E Sununu for US Senate in New Hampshire!