THE ECONOMIST: Andrew Cuomo plots a comeback in New York City

The disgraced former governor announces a run for mayor of the Big Apple

Political disgrace isn’t as constraining as it used to be. Andrew Cuomo, whose public career was thought to be dead just three years ago, is back in the spotlight as a newly declared candidate for mayor of New York City—and he is topping polls. Mr Cuomo resigned as governor of New York state in August 2021 amid multiple sexual-harassment allegations (which he denied). On March 1st he announced his comeback.

Mr Cuomo says New York City is in “crisis” and needs rescuing. The incumbent mayor, Eric Adams, was snared in a scandal over favour trading that ended with a humiliating intervention by President Donald Trump. Mr Adams’s slow-burn political downfall has certainly been disruptive. But the next mayor (almost certainly not Mr Adams, although he may run for re-election) will inherit a city that is doing passably just five years after covid-19 devastated its population and economy.

Despite a number of shocking assaults on subway riders, crime is declining; in 2024 murders hit a five-year low. (Other big cities, such as Los Angeles, Philadelphia, Detroit and Baltimore, also reported drops in homicides last year.) Citywide shootings fell for a third straight year. Major crime is down in public-housing developments and even in the transit system, in part because of the deployment of police on subways.

Tourists are back; in 2024 nearly 65m visitors arrived, the second-highest number in city history. Broadway is nearing pre-pandemic attendance. Young people still find New York exciting. Nearly 500,000 recent university graduates have moved to the Big Apple since 2021, according to the city’s economic-development corporation. Employment and labour force participation are at all-time highs, mirroring the strong national economy.

Remote work has hit New York’s commercial-property sector hard, although the picture has eased a little recently as companies demand that more workers come into the office more often. Top-line office buildings are recovering occupancy, but many others are struggling. Renovation and re-zoning of office space in Manhattan’s central business districts are needed. Affordable housing remains elusive for working and middle-class New Yorkers. Record homelessness, rising evictions and widespread housing insecurity are adding to the anxiety. Mr Cuomo hasn’t laid out a clear policy agenda yet but his initial rhetoric touches upon real fears among some New Yorkers, who “try not to make eye contact with a mentally ill homeless person”, as Mr Cuomo put it. Worried they might get pushed off the platform, many straphangers hug the subway walls. The fears may be overblown but they reflect a prolonged and chronic failure of homelessness, mental-health and policing policies.

Prior to his entry into the race, polls showed Mr Cuomo holding double-digit leads over likely rivals. But his victory in November is not a sure thing. He faces several candidates in June’s Democratic primary, which is where New York’s mayor will probably be chosen given the current weakness of the Republican Party in the city. The ranked-choice voting system, used in primaries, may be tricky for Mr Cuomo to navigate. A recent poll from Gotham Polling took the system into account and found Brad Lander,  the progressive city comptroller, just beating Mr Cuomo. Candidates with a lot of negatives tend to do poorly in ranked-choice voting—and Mr Cuomo has a lot of negatives.

As well as the sexual harassment allegations (he has 13 accusers), he abruptly disbanded a state commission investigating public corruption when it reportedly began to look at groups close to him and his office. Federal prosecutors brought charges against people involved in Mr Cuomo’s pet project, the Buffalo Billion, a plan to boost investment in that city. His administration understated the number of covid-related deaths in state nursing homes. “Did I make mistakes? Some painfully? Definitely and I believe I learned from them and that I am a better person for it,” Mr Cuomo said in a campaign launch video. John Kaehny of Reinvent Albany, a government watchdog, says that Mr Cuomo’s claim that he can fix a city undermined by Mr Adams’s ethics lapses is akin to an arsonist promising to fight fires.

There is no denying Mr Cuomo has experience. As well as nearly three terms as governor, he served one term as the state’s pugnacious attorney-general and four years as Bill Clinton’s housing secretary. He was also enforcer for his late father, Mario, who was New York’s governor in the 1980s. Mr Cuomo’s swagger could help him manage Mr Trump, who will undoubtedly press the next mayor to overlook local preferences and support his migrant deportation raids. The president may dangle federal funding or even take it away as he has already done; in February the federal government seized from the city’s coffers $80.5m of grants earmarked to cover part of the city’s cost of housing migrants.

Mr Cuomo said in his launch message that he has worked with Mr Trump in the past, and wants to co-operate and collaborate, but “make no mistake I will stand up and fight for New York” to ensure the city gets its fair share of funding. New Yorkers tend to prefer mayors who are ambitious and ornery. In this respect the former governor is a clear front-runner.