Newsweek: Zohran Mamdani’s Chances of Winning NYC Mayoral Race: New Poll

emocratic mayoral primary winner and New York state Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani is the clear frontrunner in a new poll released on Monday in the race to be the city’s new mayor.

Why It Matters

Mamdani’s surge to be the face of the Democratic Party in New York City has intensified debate over the future direction of the party as a whole, as his platform sharply contrasts with those of more centrist and establishment-aligned figures.

Mamdani has taken a more aggressive approach than many establishment Democrats—who have historically championed incremental reforms and avoided expansive tax policies targeting high-earners. The New York City frontrunner has proposed increasing taxes on residents earning more than $1 million annually, raising corporate tax rates and implementing a citywide rent freeze. These positions are central to his campaign, which he has framed around affordability, housing justice and public investment in services such as free child care and public transportation.

As Mamdani awaits critical Democratic backing from party leaders like House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, he sat down with business leaders in July, where he said he would discourage the phrase “globalize the intifada,” according to The New York Times, citing three people familiar with discussions.

What To Know

In the poll—taken on August 11—Mamdani secured nearly 42 percent of the vote compared to former Democratic New York Governor Andrew Cuomo‘s 23 percent and current Democratic New York City Mayor Eric Adams’ nearly 9 percent.

Republican candidate Curtis Sliwa received almost 17 percent of the vote, while nearly 8 percent were undecided. Independent mayoral candidate Jim Walden secured 1.4 percent of the vote.

The poll reached 1,376 registered New York City voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.2 percent.

When asked who their backup candidate was, 35 percent of those polled said Adams, 24 percent said Cuomo, 8 percent said Mamdani, 15 percent said Sliwa, and nearly 3 percent said Walden.

Mamdani’s favorability rating in the poll is 47.2 percent, Adams’ is 24.9 percent, Sliwa’s is 31.3 percent, Cuomo’s is 38.3 percent, and Walden’s is 8.5 percent.

What People Are Saying

Columbia University professor Robert Y. Shapiro to Newsweek via email on Monday: “Based on this poll and other polling data, no single candidate could simply catch up to Mamdani. At least either Sliwa and/or Adams would have to drop out to give Cuomo a chance. If one dropped out, then Cuomo would have to pick up the undecided voters to make it close. Or Cuomo would have to drop out and all his supporters would have to go toward Sliwa or Adams.

Shapiro continued: “If his supporters went to Adams especially, Adams would have to pick up the undecideds. So at this point it looks like it is Mamdani’s as the leader’s race to lose. This has the clear potential at this point to hold into the election period, barring a major scandal or something negative and completely unexpected for Mamdani.”

Republican Senator John Kennedy of Louisiana on X on Monday: “Zohran Mamdani is a socialist whack job—so why is it so hard for Sen. Chuck Schumer and Rep. Hakeem Jeffries to stand up to him?”

Independent Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont on X in July: “The oligarchs are united. Within our corrupt campaign finance system, they will spend whatever it takes to defeat @ZohranKMamdani— a candidate who fights for the working class. Let us stand together and elect Zohran as mayor of New York City.”

What Happens Next

The mayoral general election is scheduled for November 4, 2025; multiple polls in August indicated Mamdani led in split fields, but the presence of independent bids from Cuomo and Adams could alter vote dynamics and create opportunities for vote-splitting come election day.

Analysts and campaigns are expected to watch polling trends, turnout models for younger and progressive voters, and any public involvement by national figures such as President Donald Trump — all factors that could shift the race in the final months.