Categories: Results

Poll: Gotham AARP NYC Mayor October

Poll: Gotham AARP NYC Mayor General Election 2025 — October

NYC Mayoral Election 2025 – October Poll Results

NEW YORK, NY — A new Gotham Polling & Analytics / AARP New York survey of 1,040 likely voters for the November 2025 New York City mayoral election finds Assembly Member Zohran Mamdani maintaining a clear lead in the general election field. The poll, conducted in early October using a representative sample of likely general election voters, builds on Gotham Polling’s August study with AARP New York and measures voter sentiment following Mayor Eric Adams’s withdrawal from the race.
Key Findings
  • Current Vote Intention: Mamdani leads with 43.2%, followed by Andrew Cuomo at 28.9%, Curtis Sliwa at 19.4%, and 8.4% undecided or preferring another candidate.
  • Support once held by Mayor Adams—who previously polled near 9–10%—has largely shifted to Cuomo, with smaller portions moving to Sliwa and modest gains for Mamdani.
  • Voter engagement remains extremely high, with more than nine in ten respondents saying they definitely plan to vote.
Head-to-Head Scenarios
The poll modeled two hypothetical runoff-style matchups using respondents’ first-choice, backup-choice, and second-choice preferences:
  • If Cuomo drops out: Mamdani’s support rises to 46.8%, Sliwa increases to 31.5%, and 21.8% remain undecided or back another candidate. This represents a 10-point gain for Sliwa since the August poll’s comparable scenario.
  • If Sliwa drops out: Mamdani holds at 44.6%, while Cuomo climbs to 40.7%, with 14.7% undecided or preferring another candidate. Nearly 78% of undecided voters are age 50+, a group where Cuomo performs strongest, and 42% identify as Republicans—suggesting many could coalesce around Cuomo to block Mamdani. Cuomo’s 40.7% marks a nine-point increase from his August head-to-head result.
Scenario 1: Cuomo drops out
AnswerWeighted Base NGender %Age %Party %Race %
Candidate / BucketWeighted NWeighted %FemaleMale18-3435-4950-6465+DemocraticRepublicanNon-PartisanOtherWhite (non-Hispanic)Black or African AmericanHispanic or LatinoEast or South AsianJewishOther
Zohran Mamdani48746.8%55%45%23%27%24%26%88%2%8%2%37%28%16%8%7%4%
Curtis Sliwa32731.5%50%50%8%20%33%39%40%39%16%5%51%8%18%5%9%9%
Undecided+Another22621.8%64%36%4%12%32%52%74%12%10%4%33%30%24%3%5%5%

 

Scenario 2: Adams drops out
AnswerWeighted Base NGender %Age %Party %Race %
Candidate / BucketWeighted NWeighted %FemaleMale18-3435-4950-6465+DemocraticRepublicanNon-PartisanOtherWhite (non-Hispanic)Black or African AmericanHispanic or LatinoEast or South AsianJewishOther
Zohran Mamdani46444.6%55%45%24%27%22%26%88%1%8%3%39%27%16%8%7%3%
Andrew Cuomo42340.7%54%46%6%18%37%39%59%22%15%4%41%19%22%4%9%5%
Undecided+Another15314.7%60%40%6%16%25%53%46%42%9%4%45%18%14%4%4%15%

 

Favorability and Issue Landscape
All three candidates face net-negative favorability ratings, with none exceeding 50% overall favorability. Mamdani shows the widest polarization—36% very favorable versus 39% very unfavorable—reflecting an intense but divided electorate.
Voters continue to identify the cost of living as the top concern (up two points since August). Nearly half cite public safety and 39% name housing affordability as major issues. While the overall issue hierarchy remains steady, concern about cost of living has grown slightly while public safety has edged down.
Perceptions of the city’s direction remain negative, with a three-point rise in those saying New York is “on the wrong track.” Yet optimism has improved modestly: five percent more voters now say they are “very optimistic” that conditions can improve under the right leadership.
Voting Plans
About 36% of respondents plan to vote early, while just over half intend to cast ballots in person on Election Day.

For additional pdfs and spreadsheets see AARP NY’s site https://www.aarp.org/pri/topics/voter-research/politics/new-york-city-mayoral-poll-2025/

Q:1 Likelihood to Vote: How likely are you to vote in the New York City mayoral election this November?

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Gender %Age %Party %Race %County %Income %Education %
AnswerWeighted NWeighted %FemaleMale18-3435-4950-6465+DemocraticRepublicanNon-PartisanOtherWhite (non-Hispanic)Black or African AmericanHispanic or LatinoEast or South AsianJewishOtherBRONXKINGSNEWYORKQUEENSRICHMONDUnder $25,000$25,000 – $49,999$50,000 – $74,999$75,000 – $99,999$100,000 – $149,999$150,000 – $199,999$200,000 or morePrefer not to sayLess than high schoolHigh school diploma or GEDSome college / Associate degreeBachelor’s degreeGraduate or professional degreePrefer not to say
Definitely will vote98094.3%55%45%13%21%29%36%71%16%10.0%3%41%21%18%6%8%6%16%30%20%25%9%8%14%16%13%20%10%7%12%2%16%20%41%17%4%
Probably will vote605.7%56%44%29%27%20%24%59%10%28%3%34%32%18%4%2%10%18%33%13%27%9%9%16%8%28%29%2%5%3%0%14%28%26%14%8%

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Q:2 Vote Intention: If the New York City mayoral election were held today, which candidate would you choose?

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Gender %Age %Party %Race %County %Income %Education %
AnswerWeighted NWeighted %FemaleMale18-3435-4950-6465+DemocraticRepublicanNon-PartisanOtherWhite (non-Hispanic)Black or African AmericanHispanic or LatinoEast or South AsianJewishOtherBRONXKINGSNEWYORKQUEENSRICHMONDUnder $25,000$25,000 – $49,999$50,000 – $74,999$75,000 – $99,999$100,000 – $149,999$150,000 – $199,999$200,000 or morePrefer not to sayLess than high schoolHigh school diploma or GEDSome college / Associate degreeBachelor’s degreeGraduate or professional degreePrefer not to say
Zohran Mamdani45043.2%54%46%24%27%22%26%88%1%8%3%39%26%16%8%7%3%14%38%21%25%3%7%15%13%14%23%12%8%8%2%7%21%49%19%2%
Andrew Cuomo30128.9%54%46%6%18%37%39%65%17%15%4%39%21%24%3%10%3%17%28%23%24%8%11%12%15%14%20%7%8%14%2%24%15%36%19%4%
Curtis Sliwa20219.4%50%50%8%16%33%43%31%50%13%6%54%6%18%6%5%11%16%14%13%31%26%5%16%17%16%18%10%5%14%1%24%24%34%10%6%
Undecided807.7%71%29%4%19%28%49%86%7%7%0%23%42%18%3%3%11%21%36%20%22%1%10%17%29%3%15%5%2%18%0%17%28%31%13%11%
Another candidate80.7%91%9%10%9%0%81%79%0%21%0%10%36%0%0%9%45%21%60%9%10%0%24%0%10%0%57%0%9%0%0%0%60%19%21%0%

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Q:3 What if your candidate quits?If your preferred candidate withdrew from active campaigning but remained on the ballot, would you:

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Gender %Age %Party %Race %County %Income %Education %
AnswerWeighted NWeighted %FemaleMale18-3435-4950-6465+DemocraticRepublicanNon-PartisanOtherWhite (non-Hispanic)Black or African AmericanHispanic or LatinoEast or South AsianJewishOtherBRONXKINGSNEWYORKQUEENSRICHMONDUnder $25,000$25,000 – $49,999$50,000 – $74,999$75,000 – $99,999$100,000 – $149,999$150,000 – $199,999$200,000 or morePrefer not to sayLess than high schoolHigh school diploma or GEDSome college / Associate degreeBachelor’s degreeGraduate or professional degreePrefer not to say
Vote for a different candidate25650.9%50%50%9%20%38%33%52%26%18%4%46%11%20%6%12%5%17%23%20%25%15%4%11%14%16%22%9%9%15%2%21%18%40%16%4%
Still vote for them12124.1%53%47%7%18%30%45%44%41%9%6%44%14%24%1%6%11%20%18%19%26%17%14%18%13%16%16%5%6%12%3%28%18%32%14%5%
Not sure8516.9%56%44%1%7%37%55%60%26%9%5%46%23%20%2%2%8%11%17%16%38%18%12%9%24%6%19%9%4%17%0%28%15%29%17%11%
Not vote in the mayor's race418.1%60%40%5%17%31%46%52%33%13%3%41%23%27%8%1%0%17%42%18%15%9%14%21%15%24%13%5%5%4%0%27%30%27%16%0%

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Q:4 Backup choice: Which candidate would you choose instead?

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Gender %Age %Party %Race %County %Income %Education %
Answer
Weighted NWeighted %FemaleMale18-3435-4950-6465+DemocraticRepublicanNon-PartisanOtherWhite (non-Hispanic)Black or African AmericanHispanic or LatinoEast or South AsianJewishOtherBRONXKINGSNEWYORKQUEENSRICHMONDUnder $25,000$25,000 – $49,999$50,000 – $74,999$75,000 – $99,999$100,000 – $149,999$150,000 – $199,999$200,000 or morePrefer not to sayLess than high schoolHigh school diploma or GEDSome college / Associate degreeBachelor’s degreeGraduate or professional degreePrefer not to say
Curtis Sliwa10842.2%48%52%10%24%37%29%55%23%20%2%48%10%18%3%18%3%13%30%25%21%10%5%3%15%16%23%8%11%18%0.0%19%10%48%20%2%
Andrew Cuomo9838.3%46%54%9%18%49%34%33%41%19%7%54%4%20%8%6%8%21%10%16%28%26%0%14%14%18%23%12%5%14%2%23%29%32%10%4%
Undecided166.3%79%21%10%10%6%74%79%8%7%6%49%20%24%3%5%0%17%33%37%13%0%17%22%8%11%21%10%3%9%0.0%24%27%18%32%0.0%
Zohran Mamdani238.8%55%45%0%24%61%16%85%3%12%0%15%50%14%0%12%8%12%31%4%46%6%12%37%9%8%20%6%8%0%12%12%9%43%7%16%
Another candidate114.3%53%47%16%11%36%37%86%0%11%3%15%0%31%23%31%0%25%41%16%18%0%0.0%0%32%10%6%0%22%30%0.0%25%0%57%18%0.0%

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Q:5 Second-choice for mayor: If your first choice were not available, which candidate would be your second choice for mayor?

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Gender %Age %Party %Race %County %Income %Education %
AnswerWeighted NWeighted %FemaleMale18-3435-4950-6465+DemocraticRepublicanNon-PartisanOtherWhite (non-Hispanic)Black or African AmericanHispanic or LatinoEast or South AsianJewishOtherBRONXKINGSNEWYORKQUEENSRICHMONDUnder $25,000$25,000 – $49,999$50,000 – $74,999$75,000 – $99,999$100,000 – $149,999$150,000 – $199,999$200,000 or morePrefer not to sayLess than high schoolHigh school diploma or GEDSome college / Associate degreeBachelor’s degreeGraduate or professional degreePrefer not to say
Undecided28327.3%57%43%20%20%16%44%80%10%7%4%41%26%17%5%5%5%19%30%20%24%7%11%18%12%15%19%10%6%9%1%14%21%41%19%4%
Curtis Sliwa21420.6%49%51%12%26%31%31%58%21%18%3%44%13%22%5%10%5%16%29%23%25%7%9%7%17%14%23%8%9%14%1%22%15%41%17%3%
Another candidate26425.4%57%43%18%22%32%28%76%10%10%3%42%20%15%8%8%7%9%38%22%23%8%5%15%16%14%17%12%8%12%1%9%20%46%20%3%
Andrew Cuomo22221.4%56%44%7%21%32%40%55%28%12%4%41%20%20%5%8%7%19%20%16%31%14%6%13%18%13%21%9%7%14%2%21%29%29%14%5%
Zohran Mamdani565.4%58%42%5%20%52%23%94%1%5%0%17%47%25%1%5%4%15%44%11%23%7%9%22%18%6%37%2%6%1%5%15%11%52%9%8%

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Q:6 Favorable/Unfavorable — Zohran Mamdani

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Gender %Age %Party %Race %County %Income %Education %
AnswerWeighted NWeighted %FemaleMale18-3435-4950-6465+DemocraticRepublicanNon-PartisanOtherWhite (non-Hispanic)Black or African AmericanHispanic or LatinoEast or South AsianJewishOtherBRONXKINGSNEWYORKQUEENSRICHMONDUnder $25,000$25,000 – $49,999$50,000 – $74,999$75,000 – $99,999$100,000 – $149,999$150,000 – $199,999$200,000 or morePrefer not to sayLess than high schoolHigh school diploma or GEDSome college / Associate degreeBachelor’s degreeGraduate or professional degreePrefer not to say
Very Favorable37836.3%54%46%24%27%24%24%89%1%8%2%38%26%17%7%7%5%15%36%22%24%3%8%15%13%15%22%13%7%7%3%7%20%50%19%1%
Somewhat favorable11911.5%56%44%14%27%25%34%83%5%8%4%33%33%15%9%8%3%10%43%14%31%2%7%20%21%7%26%5%8%7%0%9%25%44%18%4%
Neutral737.1%56%44%4%16%34%45%83%2%14%1%14%46%28%4%1%7%26%35%13%20%6%10%8%25%9%22%6%3%16%0%19%30%29%14%8%
Somewhat unfavorable575.4%64%36%10%12%26%52%80%10%9%1%40%40%4%6%7%3%13%30%27%25%5%5%5%13%16%26%6%12%17%0%13%13%36%31%7%
Very Unfavorable41339.7%55%45%7%17%33%42%45%35%15%6%50%9%21%4%9%8%16%20%20%26%17%9%13%16%15%17%9%7%15%1%26%20%34%14%5%

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Q:7 Favorable/Unfavorable — Curtis Sliwa

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Gender %Age %Party %Race %County %Income %Education %
AnswerWeighted NWeighted %FemaleMale18-3435-4950-6465+DemocraticRepublicanNon-PartisanOtherWhite (non-Hispanic)Black or African AmericanHispanic or LatinoEast or South AsianJewishOtherBRONXKINGSNEWYORKQUEENSRICHMONDUnder $25,000$25,000 – $49,999$50,000 – $74,999$75,000 – $99,999$100,000 – $149,999$150,000 – $199,999$200,000 or morePrefer not to sayLess than high schoolHigh school diploma or GEDSome college / Associate degreeBachelor’s degreeGraduate or professional degreePrefer not to say
Very Favorable21320.5%55%45%7%15%34%45%34%45%13%8%55%8%19%5%4%9%18%16%11%30%26%9%15%18%19%17%8%3%9%2%26%22%34%10%6%
Somewhat favorable15314.8%49%51%9%23%33%35%63%22%14%1%36%15%28%5%10%6%17%24%26%26%6%5%16%19%14%18%6%8%14%2%27%15%38%17%1%
Neutral18117.4%48%52%19%25%27%28%70%9%17%4%33%29%15%8%6%9%20%32%18%26%4%10%10%13%9%28%8%8%12%2%15%26%36%16%5%
Somewhat unfavorable19819.1%60%40%18%18%27%37%84%5%9%2%44%30%12%6%6%2%12%38%20%25%5%6%12%16%12%21%13%8%13%0%10%16%48%22%4%
Very Unfavorable29428.3%59%41%16%26%25%33%90%2%6%2%35%26%19%5%11%4%13%38%25%21%3%9%16%13%13%19%10%8%10%1%9%23%44%19%3%

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Q:8 Favorable/Unfavorable — Andrew Cuomo

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Gender %Age %Party %Race %County %Income %Education %
AnswerWeighted NWeighted %FemaleMale18-3435-4950-6465+DemocraticRepublicanNon-PartisanOtherWhite (non-Hispanic)Black or African AmericanHispanic or LatinoEast or South AsianJewishOtherBRONXKINGSNEWYORKQUEENSRICHMONDUnder $25,000$25,000 – $49,999$50,000 – $74,999$75,000 – $99,999$100,000 – $149,999$150,000 – $199,999$200,000 or morePrefer not to sayLess than high schoolHigh school diploma or GEDSome college / Associate degreeBachelor’s degreeGraduate or professional degreePrefer not to say
Very Favorable18217.5%60%40%3%13%47%37%75%8%13%4%25%26%35%3%7%3%21%27%22%27%3%13%19%14%16%14%7%5%13%5%24%18%29%18%5%
Somewhat favorable20019.2%60%40%7%21%23%49%70%17%10%3%44%21%18%5%7%5%19%28%19%25%10%6%9%17%14%24%5%10%14%0%18%26%37%17%2%
Neutral15414.8%50%50%12%13%34%42%49%29%17%5%36%22%14%9%9%10%11%25%17%33%14%7%19%20%10%22%7%4%12%0%29%18%30%12%10%
Somewhat unfavorable16015.4%56%44%11%22%20%47%63%21%12%4%50%21%16%3%6%5%17%29%17%22%14%6%14%10%17%22%10%8%12%2%11%25%42%20%1%
Very Unfavorable34433.0%52%48%27%31%24%19%80%11%7%2%45%20%13%8%8%6%12%37%23%23%6%8%12%17%12%21%14%8%8%1%8%18%53%17%3%

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Q:9 Top issues: share of respondents selecting each

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Gender %Age %Party %Race %County %Income %Education %
AnswerWeighted NWeighted %FemaleMale18-3435-4950-6465+DemocraticRepublicanNon-PartisanOtherWhite (non-Hispanic)Black or African AmericanHispanic or LatinoEast or South AsianJewishOtherBRONXKINGSNEWYORKQUEENSRICHMONDUnder $25,000$25,000 – $49,999$50,000 – $74,999$75,000 – $99,999$100,000 – $149,999$150,000 – $199,999$200,000 or morePrefer not to sayLess than high schoolHigh school diploma or GEDSome college / Associate degreeBachelor’s degreeGraduate or professional degreePrefer not to say
Cost of living66263.6%59%41%18%24%25%33%74%11%11%3%39%25%19%6%5%5%17%32%19%26%6%10%16%16%12%20%9%8%9%2%15%21%42%16%4%
Public safety50548.6%53%47%9%21%32%37%56%24%16%4%41%15%20%5%11%7%19%26%18%26%10%5%10%18%13%18%9%9%17%1%18%21%39%18%4%
Housing affordability40538.9%57%43%20%28%27%26%80%7%12%1%35%29%20%6%5%5%15%37%22%24%3%9%15%19%15%19%9%7%8%3%15%20%42%17%3%
Finding and keeping affordable healthcare27826.7%69%31%12%13%24%51%83%8%4%4%41%28%15%4%5%5%14%34%19%25%9%11%17%16%12%25%6%4%9%1%11%20%45%15%8%
Services to help older residents remain in their homes as they age17316.6%67%33%4%7%22%68%69%18%7%6%37%26%21%4%7%5%18%26%21%25%11%14%25%14%10%15%7%2%12%0%16%30%26%21%7%
Public transportation access and affordability19718.9%56%44%28%24%23%25%86%6%5%3%46%20%14%6%11%3%12%37%25%21%5%7%11%14%16%17%15%10%10%1%9%12%54%22%2%
Better jobs and economic opportunities19018.3%51%49%20%31%28%21%67%20%12%1%38%24%15%8%11%5%12%37%20%22%9%4%13%15%9%20%13%12%14%0%18%14%45%23%1%
Utility and energy costs19218.4%52%48%7%22%29%41%61%26%8%6%57%14%12%4%6%7%14%23%11%33%19%6%7%15%11%30%8%7%17%2%18%20%38%17%5%
Other767.3%37%63%7%13%54%26%65%19%10%5%43%5%21%9%17%5%12%21%22%36%9%12%4%7%13%31%9%10%14%0%28%12%37%19%5%

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Q:10 Leadership style:Which approach to city leadership do you prefer?

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Gender %Age %Party %Race %County %Income %Education %
AnswerWeighted NWeighted %FemaleMale18-3435-4950-6465+DemocraticRepublicanNon-PartisanOtherWhite (non-Hispanic)Black or African AmericanHispanic or LatinoEast or South AsianJewishOtherBRONXKINGSNEWYORKQUEENSRICHMONDUnder $25,000$25,000 – $49,999$50,000 – $74,999$75,000 – $99,999$100,000 – $149,999$150,000 – $199,999$200,000 or morePrefer not to sayLess than high schoolHigh school diploma or GEDSome college / Associate degreeBachelor’s degreeGraduate or professional degreePrefer not to say
A mayor who focuses on improving existing systems48346.4%57%43%10%17%31%42%72%14%11%3%37%24%20%4%8%7%15%31%21%27%5%7%16%17%13%21%8%7%11%3%16%19%40%19%4%
A mayor who pursues major policy changes35834.4%52%48%24%29%23%24%73%11%14%2%44%17%19%8%7%4%16%32%19%25%8%10%12%14%13%20%13%9%9%0%10%21%47%17%4%
Neither of these approaches appeal to me20019.2%56%44%7%20%33%40%59%29%6%6%44%24%14%5%8%6%16%26%19%22%17%7%13%16%16%20%7%4%16%0%27%25%30%14%4%

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Q:11 Voting strategy: What best describes your approach to choosing a candidate?

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Gender %Age %Party %Race %County %Income %Education %
AnswerWeighted NWeighted %FemaleMale18-3435-4950-6465+DemocraticRepublicanNon-PartisanOtherWhite (non-Hispanic)Black or African AmericanHispanic or LatinoEast or South AsianJewishOtherBRONXKINGSNEWYORKQUEENSRICHMONDUnder $25,000$25,000 – $49,999$50,000 – $74,999$75,000 – $99,999$100,000 – $149,999$150,000 – $199,999$200,000 or morePrefer not to sayLess than high schoolHigh school diploma or GEDSome college / Associate degreeBachelor’s degreeGraduate or professional degreePrefer not to say
I choose based on who can bring change27626.5%57%43%13%20%30%37%71%17%9%3%25%29%29%5%4%9%21%32%15%24%8%17%18%20%10%17%4%4%10%3%19%26%28%16%8%
I choose the candidate closest to my views72769.9%55%45%14%23%28%35%70%15%12%4%47%20%14%6%8%5%14%29%22%26%9%5%13%14%15%22%11%8%11%0%15%19%45%18%2%
I choose based on who can win373.5%40%60%20%16%26%38%63%22%15%0%36%14%14%5%24%7%0%49%13%24%15%8%7%9%15%15%11%10%26%8%23%14%44%11%1%

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Q:12 Right Track / Wrong Track:How do you feel about the direction New York City is headed?

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Gender %Age %Party %Race %County %Income %Education %
AnswerWeighted NWeighted %FemaleMale18-3435-4950-6465+DemocraticRepublicanNon-PartisanOtherWhite (non-Hispanic)Black or African AmericanHispanic or LatinoEast or South AsianJewishOtherBRONXKINGSNEWYORKQUEENSRICHMONDUnder $25,000$25,000 – $49,999$50,000 – $74,999$75,000 – $99,999$100,000 – $149,999$150,000 – $199,999$200,000 or morePrefer not to sayLess than high schoolHigh school diploma or GEDSome college / Associate degreeBachelor’s degreeGraduate or professional degreePrefer not to say
Right direction969.2%46%54%25%26%23%26%79%7%12%1%32%29%23%8%4%3%14%35%15%36%1%17%8%10%9%26%10%11%9%3%13%13%45%17%8%
Wrong direction57955.7%56%44%13%21%29%38%62%23%11%4%43%19%20%6%7%6%16%28%19%24%13%8%15%18%14%19%9%4%12%1%19%23%40%13%4%
Mixed/Neither32130.9%54%46%14%23%28%35%79%8%10%3%40%23%15%5%10%6%15%33%22%25%5%6%13%13%15%21%10%11%10%2%13%18%42%24%2%
No opinion434.2%66%34%13%19%36%32%88%1%8%3%28%40%12%7%3%10%17%27%22%32%2%3%18%18%11%26%6%6%13%0%13%25%26%23%13%

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Q:13 Future Outlook: How do you feel about New York City's future?

No Data Found

Gender %Age %Party %Race %County %Income %Education %
AnswerWeighted NWeighted %FemaleMale18-3435-4950-6465+DemocraticRepublicanNon-PartisanOtherWhite (non-Hispanic)Black or African AmericanHispanic or LatinoEast or South AsianJewishOtherBRONXKINGSNEWYORKQUEENSRICHMONDUnder $25,000$25,000 – $49,999$50,000 – $74,999$75,000 – $99,999$100,000 – $149,999$150,000 – $199,999$200,000 or morePrefer not to sayLess than high schoolHigh school diploma or GEDSome college / Associate degreeBachelor’s degreeGraduate or professional degreePrefer not to say
Very optimistic — with the right leadership, things can improve37035.6%58%42%16%25%28%31%77%11%9%3%37%21%24%8%6%5%19%34%18%26%4%8%17%15%13%21%12%7%8%2%15%20%43%17%3%
Somewhat optimistic — I’m not sure who to trust, but I haven’t given up27426.3%58%42%16%23%19%42%79%9%9%4%40%28%13%5%8%6%14%33%18%27%8%9%10%17%13%21%9%9%12%1%14%20%41%19%5%
Very pessimistic — NYC’s future looks bleak no matter who the next mayor is656.3%37%63%10%20%39%31%55%30%9%7%33%37%13%6%6%4%10%33%20%14%23%10%28%14%7%23%8%3%8%0%30%19%38%10%3%
Somewhat pessimistic — the city is headed in the wrong direction22121.3%52%48%12%20%37%31%49%31%16%4%48%10%21%5%9%8%15%21%22%28%14%6%12%14%15%21%10%6%17%2%22%22%37%15%3%
Neither optimistic nor pessimistic – I am not sure10910.5%56%44%10%15%29%46%74%10%14%2%44%26%11%1%10%7%11%31%27%21%9%12%11%22%17%18%2%9%11%0%8%25%41%20%7%

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Q:14 Preferred Voting Method: How do you plan to vote in the mayoral election?

No Data Found

Gender %Age %Party %Race %County %Income %Education %
AnswerWeighted NWeighted %FemaleMale18-3435-4950-6465+DemocraticRepublicanNon-PartisanOtherWhite (non-Hispanic)Black or African AmericanHispanic or LatinoEast or South AsianJewishOtherBRONXKINGSNEWYORKQUEENSRICHMONDUnder $25,000$25,000 – $49,999$50,000 – $74,999$75,000 – $99,999$100,000 – $149,999$150,000 – $199,999$200,000 or morePrefer not to sayLess than high schoolHigh school diploma or GEDSome college / Associate degreeBachelor’s degreeGraduate or professional degreePrefer not to say
On Election Day at a polling place52750.7%51%49%10%23%32%35%62%21%13%5%44%21%19%5%6%6%18%28%17%27%10%8%16%18%12%22%8%6%10%1%22%24%34%16%3%
During the early voting period37436.0%60%40%18%22%24%35%80%10%9%2%42%22%14%7%9%6%11%35%24%24%6%6%11%12%17%20%11%9%15%0%11%15%52%18%4%
Haven't decided yet626.0%69%31%20%23%30%27%71%11%15%4%16%25%25%11%12%11%14%41%15%27%4%15%12%21%9%23%2%10%8%2%5%35%33%16%8%
By absentee ballot676.4%52%48%17%9%23%51%73%15%10%3%32%27%27%4%9%1%26%15%24%19%16%8%19%11%17%14%18%7%5%4%10%19%42%25%0%
Other101.0%10%90%0%6%56%38%100%0%0%0%10%28%56%0%0%6%28%34%10%28%0%56%0%28%0%0%0%0%16%28%28%10%0%0%34%

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Q:15 Political identity: How would you describe your political views?

No Data Found

Gender %Age %Party %Race %County %Income %Education %
AnswerWeighted NWeighted %FemaleMale18-3435-4950-6465+DemocraticRepublicanNon-PartisanOtherWhite (non-Hispanic)Black or African AmericanHispanic or LatinoEast or South AsianJewishOtherBRONXKINGSNEWYORKQUEENSRICHMONDUnder $25,000$25,000 – $49,999$50,000 – $74,999$75,000 – $99,999$100,000 – $149,999$150,000 – $199,999$200,000 or morePrefer not to sayLess than high schoolHigh school diploma or GEDSome college / Associate degreeBachelor’s degreeGraduate or professional degreePrefer not to say
Very liberal243.157687423.4%54%46%31%28%18%23%93%1%5%1%41%24%16%8%7%4%15%40%22%21%2%10%15%12%14%24%12%6%7%2%11%16%52%19%0%
Somewhat liberal199.2816419.2%61%39%14%18%27%41%92%2%4%1%41%26%14%6%10%3%14%32%25%22%6%4%13%16%11%24%9%12%11%0%8%18%49%22%3%
Moderate / centrist201.24105219.4%49%51%9%25%32%34%61%15%20%5%44%19%14%5%12%7%9%26%29%30%7%5%14%9%13%25%10%9%14%0%13%20%39%23%5%
No particular preference154.504151614.9%64%36%8%18%37%36%65%14%16%5%23%33%24%7%5%8%20%37%11%22%9%11%14%29%14%12%6%2%14%3%21%28%33%7%8%
Somewhat conservative157.154723415.1%53%47%5%20%38%36%46%37%13%5%45%15%25%3%3%8%23%18%18%28%12%11%12%14%19%17%8%7%13%3%27%22%31%12%4%
Very conservative84.660745678.1%47%53%6%12%23%59%29%55%10%6%54%9%24%4%3%6%14%20%1%33%31%9%18%22%10%17%10%4%10%1%30%27%22%13%7%

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Methods & Transparency NYC Mayor General Election Survey of Voters 18+, October 2025

Sponsor & Fielding

  • Sponsor: AARP
    Conducted by: Gotham Polling & Analytics
    Mode & language: SMS invitations to a self-administered web survey (English only)
    Field date: October 14-15, 2025
    Average questionnaire time: 2 minutes 36 seconds.

Population, Frame, and Sample

  • Population: Likely voters registered in New York City (five boroughs), age 18+.
    Sampling frame: L2 voter file of registered voters in NYC (five boroughs) with matched mobile
    numbers (N=4,745,759).
    Sample design: Random selection of 80,000 records from the frame (stratified by Age Range
    (birth-year), Voter Gender, and Party description).
    Invitations sent: 79,489 SMS

Dispositions (AAPOR-style mapping)

  • Complete interviews (I): 1,040
    Partial interviews (P): 252
    Screened ineligible (NE): 48 (not likely to vote)
    Refusals (R): 2,890 (“do not text”)
    Other eligible non-interview (O): 355 (DNC + other replies)
    Undelivered (UH): 3,533
    Delivered (approx.): 67,010
    Non-contact (NC): 83,274 (Delivered – (I+P+R+O))
    Outcome Rates (AAPOR Standard Definitions; RR3 uses ê for UH)
    ê (eligibility rate among known) = 0.954
    RR1 = 0.012 • RR3 = 0.012
    COOP1 = 0.229 • CON1 = 0.0545 • REF1 = 0.037

Weighting

  • Variables: gender, age, party registration, race, county, household income, and education.
    Targets: NYC general-election voter distributions (2021 & 2022).
    Method: iterative proportional fiting (raking), then normalization. Final reporting uses the
    “Normalized Weight” in SurveyData.
    Trimming: weights winsorized at CapMultiplier × median (final weight) with CapMultiplier=4.0
    by default; renormalized to mean=1.
    Diagnostics: Based on the current cap in the Weights sheet, DEFF » 1.73 and n_eff » 600; 95%
    MOE near 50% » ±4.0 points (within-frame).

Questionnaire & Routing

  • Full question wording and response options are provided in the attached Questionnaire PDF
    (exact text as displayed in data headers).
    Key skips (summary): “Backup choice” was asked after vote intention; results include modeled “dropout scenarios” that reallocate first-choice votes to each respondent’s backup choice.
    Respondents who remained undecided, selected “another candidate,” provided no backup, or
    backed a candidate who also dropped remain in the “Undecided + Another” bucket.

Quality Controls & Limitations

  • Quality: de-duplication by L2ID/device/IP; speed checks; straight-line flags; geofencing to NYC;
    termination of unlikely voters (n=48).
    Coverage: registered voters with matched mobile numbers; nonresponse and measurement
    error are possible; SMS-to-web mode effects may occur.
    Interpretation of modeled scenarios: “dropout scenario” head-to-heads are modeled
    outcomes, not observed elections.

 

Dropout Scenario Modeling

The survey included two “dropout” scenarios to model potential two-way runoffs should a major candidate exit the race. Results are weighted to the full analytic base (N = 1,040) and reflect respondents’ stated backup or second-choice preferences.

Scenario 1 – Cuomo Drops (Mamdani vs. Sliwa)

This scenario redistributes respondents who originally supported Andrew Cuomo based on their stated backup or second-choice candidate.

  • Mamdani % includes: original Mamdani voters + Cuomo voters whose backup was Mamdani + Undecided/Another voters who listed Mamdani as their second choice.
  • Sliwa % includes: original Sliwa voters + Cuomo voters whose backup was Sliwa + Undecided/Another voters who listed Sliwa as their second choice.
  • Undecided + Another % includes everyone else (Cuomo voters with no or non-matching backup choice, and undecideds who did not lean to either).
Scenario 2 – Sliwa Drops (Mamdani vs. Cuomo)

This scenario redistributes respondents who originally supported Curtis Sliwa based on their stated backup or second-choice candidate.

  • Mamdani % includes: original Mamdani voters + Sliwa voters whose backup was Mamdani + Undecided/Another voters who listed Mamdani as their second choice.
  • Cuomo % includes: original Cuomo voters + Sliwa voters whose backup was Cuomo + Undecided/Another voters who listed Cuomo as their second choice.
  • Undecided + Another % includes all remaining respondents with no or unrelated backup choice.
    Each row’s demographic percentages represent weighted shares within that candidate’s support group (weighted base = 1,040).

Contact:

Gotham Polling & Analytics
press@gothampolling.com
htps://gothampolling.com/
“Precision Polling for Data-Driven Political Strategies”

Syed Nofel

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Syed Nofel
3 weeks ago

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