POLITICO: The state primary races to watch tomorrow

Doozy or snoozy?

Tuesday’s primary has the makings of both, with a fierce congressional fight between Rep. Jamaal Bowman and Westchester County Executive George Latimer dominating headlines while competitive state races have failed to excite voters.

Early voting, which ended today, yielded remarkably low turnout compared to the August 2022 primary — even with more offices on the ballot this time. And nearly a quarter of the votes cast so far were in Westchester, where Bowman and Latimer are duking it out.

Far fewer incumbent Assemblymembers and state Senators are facing challenges this year. Total super PAC money, despite being focused on defeating socialist-friendly candidates, is down, too.

That all makes for a quiet election year for the state Legislature. But don’t get the wrong idea — sleepy primaries could pave the way for political shockers, as our colleague Bill Mahoney lays out in his guide to the state’s 2024 state legislative primaries on POLITICO Pro.

Here’s a some of the state Legislative primaries to watch:

LEFT VS. MODERATE: The fever of left-leaning Democratic candidates fighting to wrest control from establishment candidates has cooled from recent elections, but some races remain defined by that divide.

In Brooklyn, Democratic Socialists of America-aligned Assemblymember Emily Gallagher faces a challenge from Anathea Simpkins, who has the financial backing of pro-charter school PACs.

Kingston, New York is home to a battle between DSA member Sarahana Shrestha of the Assembly and Gabi Madden. Madden used to work for Kevin Cahill, the 13-term lawmaker that Shrestha ousted in ‘22.

EIGHTH TIME’S A CHARM?: You know the saying. If you don’t succeed, try, try, try, try, try, try, try, try again.

For the eighth time since he was expelled from the Senate following a 2010 assault conviction, Hiram Monserrate is attempting yet another public office comeback.

This time it’s to fill an East Elmhurst, Queens seat left vacant by retiring Assemblymember Jeff Aubry. Monserrate’s opponent Larinda Hooks boasts support from Aubry and other top Democrats. But unlike Monserrate’s past two campaigns for the seat (including a 23-point loss to Aubry in 2022), this is a less predictable open race.

HEASTIE WIELDS INFLUENCE: Assembly Speaker Carl Heastie has visited the 106th Assembly district — which is centered around Hudson, New York — more than any other this year.

It’s the stomping grounds of Assemblymember Didi Barrett, who faces a primary challenge from Working Families Party-backed Claire Cousin.

Progressives view the seat as one of their best chances to gain more power in the Legislature, and Heastie, whose influence in other races has been relatively muted, is helping Barrett play defense by hosting local press conferences where he boasts about the money that’s been brought to the district.

“The fact that Heastie is meeting with Didi again indicates that Didi views our campaign as a formidable challenge,” Cousin told POLITICO Pro in April.

THREE-WAY FLUSHING FIGHT: In the wake of the police murder of George Floyd, Flushing Assemblymember Ron Kim bluntly called for the defunding of the police.

But he’s also taken pro-police stances since then. He embraced the National Guard’s presence in the subway, brought funding to local police precincts and advocated for the opening of a new one in Queens.

Still, powerful police unions from the city and Long Island have coalesced around his challenger Yi Andy Chen.

In a break from his typical alignment with the city’s police union, Mayor Eric Adams endorsed Kim earlier this month.

The other challenger, Dao Yin, has brought in an impressive haul from the state’s public finance matching program, but reporting from The New York Times calls into question whether some of his donations are fraudulent. — Jason Beeferman

GOLDEN VOTERS: Elections in New York are being decided by older voters.

Voters aged 50 and older composed 71 percent of the electorate in the Feb. 13 special election won by Democratic Rep. Tom Suozzi to replace disgraced former Republican Rep. George Santos, according to a report compiled by Gotham Government Relations.

Older voters also make up a large chunk of the broader statewide electorate: 63 percent of the ballots cast during the 2022 statewide elections were made by people age 50 and older.

The report, commissioned and released today by AARP New York, comes as campaigns this year have agonized over how to draw younger people to the polls.

Concerns over the cost of living and the war between Israel and Hamas are both seen as motivating factors for younger people.

But trying to engage younger voters in this election could be a challenge: President Joe Biden, 81, and former President Donald Trump, 78, will set records this November as the oldest nominees for their parties.

And yet, it’s a more seasoned set of voters who have been a significant factor in elections, including in New York.

AARP New York’s report found the participation of voters 50 and older participated in the February special election at a higher rate than any other demographic, a trend that cut across party enrollment.

And Democratic women who are 50 and older comprised the most substantial bloc of voters in that election, the report found.

“The primaries tomorrow, like all recent elections in New York State, will make clear that older voters decide elections at every level,” AARP New York State Director Beth Finkel said. — Nick Reisman

THE CO-OP CITY FACTOR: Bowman and Latimer were both set to campaign today in Mount Vernon, a predominantly Black city in Westchester County.

But any chance that Bowman has at overcoming Latimer — who has been running like the incumbent, helped by $14 million in AIPAC spending — may hinge on Co-op City in the Bronx.

The sprawling minority-majority cooperative housing complex, the nation’s largest, was added back into NY-16 through the redistricting process.

It was deeply personal for “the Squad” member, who has hosted rallies and events there throughout the primary.

“It literally has nothing to do with the election or politics, it’s emotional,” Bowman told Playbook recently in Co-op City. “I served this community for 10 and a half years as a middle school principal. … So when we got it back, I literally was crying, like I was weeping.”

Co-op City has a population of tens of thousands that is heavily engaged in civics. And it’s been a popular stop for Democratic politicians, including Hillary Clinton.

Latimer has also stumped in Co-op City, including as part of his morning visits with commuters at bus stops and train stations through the district, telling Playbook he was willing to go everywhere to reach voters.

The ascendent challenger is especially well known around Westchester as its active county executive, but it appears Bowman can rely on this corner of the Bronx.

“He’s a shoo-in in Co-op City,” said McKinley Alston, 52, who lives in the neighborhood. “This community is strong. The senior citizens? Strong. We’re trying to work on getting the future voters now.” — Emily Ngo

LOANS TO JUDGE: Last minute loans totaling $70,000 to Queens Surrogate’s Court candidate Wendy Li are highlighting the competitive countywide primary — but a single, shockingly large $100,000 loan turned out to just be a typo, her campaign says.

Li’s campaign raised eyebrows reporting a $100,000 loan on Friday from a Brooklyn resident named Junpeng Lu. Loans are treated as campaign contributions if they’re not paid back before Tuesday’s primary, and that’s triple the $36,837 contribution limit.

But Li campaign lawyer Marty Connor told Playbook the report was a mistake, and the loan is for $10,000.

But that’s one of five loans totaling $70,000 for Li in the final days before the primary, including two $20,000 loans that would each be the two largest contributions in the race so far. They are from Maoyuan Zhu of Livingston, New Jersey, and Frank GuangZhao Xu of Manhattan.

Opponent Cassandra Johnson’s largest contribution, of $17,900, came from Thomas Chen of Queens.

Li reported raising a massive $353,000 just through June 10, outpacing Johnson’s $283,087. Surrogate’s Court is a cash cow for lawyers affiliated with the county party, which is backing Johnson, and a new Surrogate Court judge could mean a shakeup, with contracts and cases going to new firms.

As a judge, Li said she doesn’t do anything with fundraising. “I don’t know who are the donors, who are the lenders,” she said. But the big influx, “I think it’s to finish the campaign with a strong note.” — Jeff Coltin