In New Jersey, voters aged 50 and over continue to dominate turnout across the state, consistently shaping election outcomes. Despite growth among younger voters, especially Independents, the 50-plus demographic remains the most reliable and influential voting bloc. In non-presidential elections, their turnout rates far surpass those of younger age groups, regardless of party affiliation. These trends underscore the critical role of older voters in determining key races such as the state level and local elections in 2025.

With the November election approaching, New Jersey’s older voters will play a pivotal role in shaping outcomes. Their consistent participation, coupled with their strong party loyalty, ensures they remain the most influential demographic in the state’s political landscape. Meanwhile, the growing number of younger, independent registrants signals potential for long-term shifts, provided their turnout rates improve in future cycles.

Study Parameters

Gotham Polling & Analytics, on behalf of AARP New Jersey, undertook to study the influence and impact of older voters on elections across the state of New Jersey.  At the same time, we wanted to test the hypothesis that voters are becoming disenchanted with the two major parties and increasingly registering to vote without identifying a party. If such a shift is happening, it would possibly have a significant impact on future elections.

Data from the New Jersey State Board of Elections as well as from L2 Data was examined to provide insight and analysis. The specific areas examined were the 21 counties and 40 State Legislative Districts across the state.

For this research we examined current registration data, to provide a sense of the current composition of the voter base.  To get a sense of how it is changing over time, we examined new registrations over the past 5 years on an annual basis. Finally, in order to see how various voter groups impacted voter turnout, we studied the vote totals in General Elections for the past 5 years. This included two Presidential elections (2020, 2024) as well as one Federal midterm (2022) and two “off year” local and state level elections (2021, 2023).

The data was stratified into various demographic categories. First, it was divided by age into two groups: those under 50 years of age and those 50 and older. Second, these were categorized by party affiliation, including Republicans, Democrats, and Independents (voters registered without a party affiliation). Additionally, all groups were further subdivided by sex or gender into men and women.

Key Takeaways

1. Dominance of 50+ Voters: In every county reviewed, voters aged 50 and over represent the majority of turnout, with some counties like Hunterdon and Morris exceeding 70% in off-year elections. This demographic’s strong presence underscores their outsized influence, particularly in local and state elections.

2. Independent Voter Growth: Across New Jersey, independent voter registration is increasing, particularly among younger voters. In several counties, such as Atlantic, Monmouth, and Gloucester, Independents now rival or surpass Democrats and Republicans in new registrations. However, turnout among Independents remains inconsistent, especially in off-year elections.

3. Vast Turnout Difference Between Presidential and Non-Presidential Years: Turnout across all demographic groups peaked during presidential general elections, with significant declines in off-year and midterm elections. For example, Democratic women under 50 (Dem <50 W) dropped from 471,780 votes in 2020 to just 155,177 in 2023, a decline of nearly 67%. Similarly, Independent men under 50 (Ind <50 M) fell from 355,682 votes in 2020 to only 69,677 in 2023, a drop of over 80%. Meanwhile, 50+ voters experienced smaller declines; Democratic women over 50 (Dem 50+ W) declined from 578,022 votes in 2020 to 322,942 in 2023, while Republican men over 50 (Rep 50+ M) decreased from 378,347 to 214,449 in the same period. In presidential elections, turnout is widespread, but in non-presidential years, 50+ Democrats and Republicans dominate the electorate, often by a substantial margin.

4. Partisan Strength Varies by County:

• Democratic Strongholds: Counties like Essex, Hudson, and Camden see high registration and turnout rates among Democratic voters, particularly women over 50.
• Republican Dominance: Counties such as Cape May, Morris, and Ocean show Republican voters aged 50 and over leading turnout by significant margins.
• Swing Dynamics: Counties like Salem and Somerset highlight the potential for competitive elections, with balanced registration numbers and significant independent growth.
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5. Younger Voter Growth: Younger voters are increasingly registering as Independents across the state, signaling a generational shift toward non-partisan affiliation. However, this group’s impact on turnout remains limited, with older voters continuing to distinguish in election participation.

6. Gender Disparity in Registrations and Growth: Across most districts and counties, a clear gender disparity is evident in voter registrations and new registration growth. Democratic women significantly outnumber Democratic men in both age categories, with 691K Democratic women under 50 compared to 469K men and 675K Democratic women over 50 compared to 473K men. This trend is consistent in new registrations, where Democratic women also outpace men in both age groups. Conversely, younger Republican registrations skew male, with 354K younger Republican men compared to 281K women. Among Independents, the gender disparity is less pronounced, but men slightly lead in younger registrations with 724K under-50 men compared to 698K women. These patterns highlight varying gender dynamics by party affiliation and age group, shaping voter demographics across the state.