FOX 5: Does Cuomo have a path to victory? Latest polls

NEW YORK – For the first time this general election season, former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo may have found a narrow path to victory in the crowded New York City mayor’s race, according to a new poll.

The survey of 1,000 likely voters conducted by Tulchin Research shows Democratic nominee and state Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani leading the five-person field with 42%. Cuomo trails in second at 26%, followed by Republican Curtis Sliwa at 17%, Mayor Eric Adams at 9%, and independent candidate Tricia Walden at 3%.

Cuomo wins in head-to-head with Mamdani: Poll

The poll also tested a head-to-head matchup between Mamdani and Cuomo and in that scenario, Cuomo wins 52% to 41%. For that to happen, however, Sliwa, Adams and Walden would need to drop out, something each has so far rejected.

Still, the results highlight the shifting dynamics in a race that has so far favored Mamdani, a progressive who has gained national attention and grassroots momentum. 

Cuomo, ousted from office in 2021 amid sexual harassment allegations he denies, has leaned heavily into portraying Mamdani as too far left for New York.

Cuomo says a Mamdani win is a win for Trump

Cuomo has criticized Mamdani’s ties to the Democratic Socialists of America, arguing that his election would hand too much influence to national Republicans. “If Zoran Mamdani became mayor, how long would it be before Donald Trump took control of New York City?” Cuomo said, referencing Trump’s deployment of National Guard troops to Washington and his threats to do the same in other Democratic-led cities.

For now, Mamdani maintains a comfortable double-digit lead, but the Tulchin poll illustrates how quickly the race could change if the field shrinks. Whether Cuomo can translate that hypothetical into reality — and rehabilitate his own political standing in the process, remains the central question of this campaign.

NYC mayoral polls

By the numbers:

Recent polls show Zohran Mamdani holding a steady lead in the New York City mayor’s race, with support ranging from the mid-30s to mid-40s across several surveys. 

An American Pulse poll conducted Aug. 14-19 found Mamdani at 37%, followed by Andrew Cuomo at 25%, Curtis Sliwa at 17% and Mayor Eric Adams at 11%. 

A Gotham Polling survey on Aug. 11 showed Mamdani at 42%, Cuomo at 23%, Sliwa at 17% and Adams at 9%. A Siena University poll taken Aug. 4-7 put Mamdani at 44%, Cuomo at 25%, Sliwa at 12% and Adams at 7%.