Newsweek: John Sununu Within Striking Distance of Flipping Democrat Senate Seat—Poll

Anew poll shows a close race in a hypothetical U.S. Senate election matchup in New Hampshire between former Senator John E. Sununu, a Republican, and Democratic Representative Chris Pappas.

Why It Matters

The New Hampshire U.S. Senate race will be pivotal in 2026 as Democrats attempt to claw back the majority from their legislative counterparts. Current Democratic Senator Jeanne Shaheen previously announced her retirement after representing her seat in the chamber since 2009. Currently, the Republicans helm the majority with 53 senators while there are 45 Democrats, as well as two independents who caucus with the Democratic Party.

Sununu was once upon a time the youngest member of the U.S. Senate when he previously served from 2003 to 2009. He is part of a political family with statewide sway, being the brother of former New Hampshire Governor Chris Sununu and son of former New Hampshire Governor John H. Sununu.

What To Know

A new memo from the GOP polling firm 1892 and first reported by Punchbowl News shows Sununu in a statistical dead heat with Pappas in a hypothetical general election matchup, with Pappas leading 45-43 percent in a survey of 500 likely voters with a 4.4 percent margin of error.

Sununu has openly weighed entering the race, which on the Republican side already includes former U.S. Senator Scott Brown and state Senator Dan Innis. Pappas’ only Democratic primary opponent right now is doctor and progressive activist Karishma Manzur.

The 1892 memo says Sununu’s entry into the New Hampshire Senate race “would flip the script and make this a top Republican pick up opportunity in the midterms.”

“If Sununu runs, Chris Pappas will be in for the fight of his political career,” the memo states.

Sununu defeated Shaheen in the 2002 U.S. Senate election after she concluded her tenure as New Hampshire governor. But she later got revenge, defeating him in the 2008 Senate race after he served one term.

He is described as a politician with plenty of statewide name recognition who may be able to wrangle independent voters from Pappas—who is anticipated to be the Democratic candidate.

The memo comes from a group with close ties to Senate Majority Leader John Thune, according to Punchbowl, potentially showing weaknesses or a lack of GOP confidence in Brown as a candidate.

‘True Political dynasty’

Denny Salas, co-founder of Gotham Polling & Analytics and a New Hampshire native, told Newsweek via email that Sununu would have a great chance at victory based on statewide independents who can sway based on each election cycle.

“The Sununu family is to New Hampshire what the Kennedys are to Massachusetts and the Bushes are to Texas—a true political dynasty,” Salas said. “John [E.] Sununu has a great opportunity to win this U.S. Senate race in a purple state that sometimes swings depending on the current political climate.

“By the end of the summer of 2026, we will see where the national politics stand and how Granite Staters respond—whether they follow the trend or buck it.”

He said Democrats need to find a candidate who matches the typical New Hampshire voter, described as fiscally conservative and moderately socially liberal.

“If the economy remains the top issue in 2026, Republicans will need to either defend President Trump’s policies or highlight them if the economy is doing well,” he said. “If individual rights and a weak economy dominate the national mood, Democrats will have an advantage in what are usually tough midterms for the incumbent presidential party.

“Right now, I believe it’s too early to tell, but the Sununu name is highly valued in New Hampshire.”

Teasing A Run

Sununu, 60, has teased an announcement on social media. In one post on X (formerly Twitter) he wrote, “Don’t call it a comeback…” and linked a news report about his potential entry.

Another post from September 3 reads: “Many have urged me to run for the Senate-an important race at a critical time for our country. New Hampshire needs an effective voice in Washington-someone willing to take risks and get things done. Will talk to voters across NH before making a decision.”

He told local news outlet WMUR-TV earlier this month that he’s going to tour the state and decide “by the end of next month” whether he’ll run.

Sununu has spoken by phone with Thune and former Senator Cory Gardner of Colorado about the seat, according to two sources who spoke to NBC News.

In 2016, Sununu endorsed former Ohio Governor John Kasich for president. Eight years later, he supported former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley‘s presidential bid as Trump vied for his second term.

Sununu told WMUR-TV when asked about Trump and his impact on the statewide race that it “is going to be about New Hampshire.

“New Hampshire voters, New Hampshire values. Putting together a strong campaign,” he said.

What People Are Saying

Former U.S. Senator John E. Sununu to WMUR-TV: “We need someone to represent us in New Hampshire that has our values, that’s not going to vote a party line, that’s willing to take risks and get things done,” he said. “I certainly agree, and I’m going to seriously consider a run.”

Democratic Representative Chris Pappas in a statement: “Whether it’s corporate sellout John E. Sununu—who hasn’t held office in over two decades—or MAGA puppet Scott Brown, New Hampshire voters aren’t buying what the GOP is selling.

“While Republicans scramble to find Donald Trump‘s perfect candidate, I will continue working to address the issues I hear most about from the people of my state—from bringing down rising costs to protecting their personal freedoms.”

What Happens Next

New Hampshire’s primary elections will be held on September 8, 2026, as incumbent three-term Democratic Senator Jeanne Shaheen declined to seek reelection.