AARP New York engaged Gotham Polling & Analytics to produce a research brief examining voter registration and turnout dynamics in the 2025 New York City mayoral primary, with emphasis on generational patterns and their implications for the upcoming general election. Drawing on official Board of Elections data and L2 voter files, the analysis tracks first-time voters, new registrants, and turnout trends across the 2017, 2021, and 2025 cycles. The results point to an unprecedented surge of under-50 participation in 2025, overturning the long-standing dominance of voters age 50+, and raising key questions about whether this youth-driven shift is a one-time anomaly or a lasting realignment in New York City politics.
New York City’s 2025 mayoral race has evolved from a once-assumed coronation of the Democratic primary winner into a genuinely intriguing, competitive contest. The primary upset by Zohran Mamdani injected uncertainty and excitement into what is usually a foregone conclusion in this deep-blue city. Now, with the general election looming, the narrative has shifted: it’s no longer “Can a Democrat win in NYC?” (that’s almost given), but rather “Which vision of the Democratic Party will lead the city – and could a coalition of disaffected Democrats, independents, and Republicans thwart the left-wing insurgent?”
The data and analysis above indicate that Mamdani is favored but not invincible. His roughly 40% base of enthusiastic supporters will carry him far. Yet roughly 60% of voters prefer someone else, and they could unite under the right conditions. The importance of voters aged 50 and above cannot be overstated in determining which scenario plays out. They will likely comprise a majority of November voters, and they disproportionately populate the undecided and persuadable category right now. Mamdani has already proven the ability of young voters to upend New York’s political calculus – but can he overcome the historical might of the senior vote in a general election? That is the central question as the campaign enters its final stretch.
For the media and political observers, the potential for an upset – a progressive Democrat falling to an independent or a fusion-backed candidate in New York City – is the story to watch. It has been decades since NYC saw a truly competitive general mayoral election pitting a Democrat against a strong independent bid. A Cuomo victory (or even a close finish) would signal a remarkable realignment, driven largely by older voters’ backlash against a progressive agenda. Even the possibility of that outcome is already influencing behavior: pressure is mounting on lower-polling candidates to bow out, and Mamdani, who ran as an uncompromising progressive, is now making more moderate overtures to broaden his appeal to older voters and party stalwarts.
One way or another, the 50+ voters will likely decide this election: either by turning out in force to deliver a check on the progressive wave, or by remaining split (or staying home) and allowing the youth-fueled Mamdani coalition to prevail. As AARP New York’s survey press release put it, Mamdani holds a “commanding lead” for now, “but older undecided voters could emerge as a key swing bloc.” Those older swing voters will be hearing plenty from all sides in the coming weeks.
The general election is set for November 4, 2025. Between now and then, New Yorkers can expect an intense campaign aimed particularly at their parents and grandparents. Will New York embrace a new, youthful progressive era, or will the city’s formidable older electorate assert a preference for experience and moderation? The answer will shape not just the city’s future, but could send a signal nationwide about the direction of the Democratic Party. All eyes will be on the behavior of those crucial senior voters come Election Day.
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Party | Age | Gender | 2017 | 2021 | 2025 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
DEM | 50 Plus | F | 179,202 | 329,653 | 310,566 |
DEM | 50 Plus | M | 109,330 | 216,158 | 196,204 |
DEM | Under 50 | F | 85,576 | 217,933 | 312,162 |
DEM | Under 50 | M | 56,424 | 164,636 | 216,462 |
REP | 50 Plus | F | 4,305 | 27,012 | 13,463 |
REP | 50 Plus | M | 3,180 | 24,845 | 11,994 |
REP | Under 50 | F | 1,592 | 8,320 | 4,403 |
REP | Under 50 | M | 1,560 | 10,614 | 5,649 |
TOTAL | 441,169 | 999,171 | 1,070,903 |
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Party | Age | Gender | 2017 | 2021 | 2025 |
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DEM | 50 Plus | F | 1,960 | 2,613 | 1,864 |
DEM | 50 Plus | M | 1,668 | 2,432 | 1,405 |
DEM | Under 50 | F | 3,583 | 8,056 | 27,297 |
DEM | Under 50 | M | 3,028 | 7,407 | 18,421 |
REP | 50 Plus | F | 99 | 387 | 162 |
REP | 50 Plus | M | 77 | 396 | 173 |
REP | Under 50 | F | 110 | 493 | 280 |
REP | Under 50 | M | 130 | 669 | 399 |
TOTAL | 10,655 | 22,453 | 50,001 |
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Party | Age | Gender | 2017 | 2021 | 2025 |
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DEM | 50+ | F | 5,547 | 4,117 | 4,177 |
DEM | 50+ | M | 4,775 | 3,838 | 3,327 |
DEM | Under 50 | F | 25,603 | 21,131 | 43,623 |
DEM | Under 50 | M | 20,585 | 17,245 | 28,759 |
REP | 50+ | F | 928 | 787 | 1,120 |
REP | 50+ | M | 1,040 | 826 | 1,191 |
REP | Under 50 | F | 2,922 | 2,188 | 2,893 |
REP | Under 50 | M | 3,974 | 2,984 | 3,958 |
OTHER/Unaff | 50+ | F | 2,167 | 1,439 | 2,535 |
OTHER/Unaff | 50+ | M | 2,185 | 1,629 | 2,361 |
OTHER/Unaff | Under 50 | F | 12,517 | 9,279 | 14,560 |
OTHER/Unaff | Under 50 | M | 12,573 | 10,985 | 15,798 |
TOTAL | 94,816 | 76,448 | 124,302 |
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Party | Age | Gender | 2017 | 2021 |
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DEM | 50+ | F | 250,705 | 325,389 |
DEM | 50+ | M | 165,757 | 215,448 |
DEM | Under 50 | F | 166,674 | 182,917 |
DEM | Under 50 | M | 115,654 | 133,810 |
REP | 50+ | F | 25,455 | 35,920 |
REP | 50+ | M | 29,294 | 39,770 |
REP | Under 50 | F | 24,783 | 27,926 |
REP | Under 50 | M | 27,869 | 31,234 |
OTHER/Unaff | 50+ | F | 41,051 | 55,324 |
OTHER/Unaff | 50+ | M | 39,496 | 51,565 |
OTHER/Unaff | Under 50 | F | 20,415 | 24,414 |
OTHER/Unaff | Under 50 | M | 25,174 | 28,012 |
TOTAL | 932,327 | 1,151,729 |
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